January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Blizzard of 93]

Lol, there is so much griping on here that the cliff jumpers & Debs missed the 18z GFS showing snow this run on the 11th.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, there is so much griping on here that the cliff jumpers & Debs missed the 18z GFS showing snow this run on the 11th.

Yes, the pattern is very progressive and volatile. Anything could happen. Before, we’ve seen these 60 degree days turn into snowfalls the next day or two. This could happen here. 

[Terpeast]

 

Looking ahead to the second half of the month - with a map like this after the ~5 day torch in the near-medium term, Jan might finish a couple degrees AN. But if those last two weeks come to fruition like this, we could have some interesting events to track without the suppression risks.

Not the time to bail on this winter just yet. 

[WxUSAF]

52 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

PSU being MIA is/should have been a major tell.

 

50 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I was just thinking the same thing yesterday 

His second most recent post is literally  “I’m very optimistic for January”

[JenkinsJinkies]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yes, the pattern is very progressive and volatile. Anything could happen. Before, we’ve seen these 60 degree days turn into snowfalls the next day or two. This could happen here. 

The mega torch has been perpetually 2 weeks away, some models have the 11th as one of them. Suspiciously 2 weeks after the last forecasted mega torch.

[CAPE]

54 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

PSU being MIA is/should have been a major tell.

LOL

He has other interests, as all of us should/do have.

[CAPE]

This place is a riot. Goddamn.

[Yardstickgozinya]

38 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

If people are this upset at getting weenied then that’s their problem.

No, its  complete d bag shit for the mentally ill once you step outside fantasy land. 

AI Overview

 

 

 

+9

 

 

 

Likes and online approval/disapproval  foster addiction, damage self-esteem through constant comparison to unrealistic ideals, fuel anxiety and depression, encourage superficial "gamified" social interactions, and can lead to negative behaviors like seeking validation through risky posts or becoming susceptible to manipulation, all while distorting genuine human connection for dopamine hits

. 

 

Psychological Impacts

• Addiction & Dopamine: Likes trigger dopamine, creating a reward loop that can become addictive, similar to gambling.
• Lowers Self-Esteem: Unfavorable social comparison to curated "perfect" lives leads to feelings of inadequacy and lower self-worth.
• Anxiety & Depression: Chasing likes and fearing disapproval creates stress, anxiety, and can worsen mental health.
• Fear of Missing Out (FOMO): Seeing others' activities can trigger feelings of exclusion and inadequacy. 

 

Social & Behavioral Impacts

• Superficiality: "Gamified" sociality reduces complex interactions to metrics (likes/dislikes), hindering deep connections.
• Unrealistic Standards: Influencers promote unattainable beauty and lifestyle standards, distorting reality.
• Manipulation: Platforms use these metrics to keep users engaged, while users manipulate content for validation.
• Communicative Laziness: The ease of a "like" discourages thoughtful engagement and nuanced discussion. 

 

Negative Feedback Loop

• Disapproval Hurts: A lack of likes or receiving dislikes can be particularly damaging, leading to insecurity, isolation, and even more desperate posting to get validation.
• Echo Chambers: Upvotes and downvotes can amplify certain opinions, making it harder to encounter diverse viewpoints and fueling negativity or extremism.

[Terpeast]

Vaguely recall PSU mentioned going skiing somewhere around this time or something

[bncho]

9 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

The mega torch has been perpetually 2 weeks away, some models have the 11th as one of them. Suspiciously 2 weeks after the last forecasted mega torch.

This is actually a decently good observation. I’d urge caution with believing the models considering how poorly they’ve performed, especially with their warm bias.

Shown below are the GEFS and EPS forecast biases two weeks out over the last 90 days (courtesy of @GaWx). That’s all you need to see.

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

PSU being MIA is/should have been a major tell.

 

58 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I was just thinking the same thing yesterday 

 

57 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Isn’t he taking a break?

I vaguely remember him saying something about a ski trip??

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Vaguely recall PSU mentioned going skiing somewhere around this time or something

He’s in Florida 

[JenkinsJinkies]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

LOL

He has other interests, as all of us should/do have.

And kids

[Ji]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

LOL

He has other interests, as all of us should/do have.

he does?

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

And kids

Yeah well that's a big part of his other interests.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

he does?

Believe it or not.. its not all about how much more snow he gets than the rest of us lol

[mappy]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This place is a riot. Goddamn.

Gonna channel my inner Brian numbers and weenie the shit out of some posts moving forward 

[JenkinsJinkies]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

Gonna channel my inner Brian numbers and weenie the shit out of some posts moving forward 

Careful, some people are going to whinge at you when you do.

[Maestrobjwa]

41 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, there is so much griping on here that the cliff jumpers & Debs missed the 18z GFS showing snow this run on the 11th.

While this is almost always an error the GFS makes (that is the depiction of rain to snow with a front), it is interesting to see it colder overall.

[mappy]

10 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Careful, some people are going to whinge at you when you do.

Saving them all for you, boo 

[pazzo83]

5 hours ago, CAPE said:

ofc you are- over a single deterministic run 318 hours out. See ya next winter!

lol classic Ji

[snowfan]

1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

PSU being MIA is/should have been a major tell.

Agreed. This place isn’t the same without his 1000 word responses and childish rants. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Agreed. This place isn’t the same without his 1000 word responses and childish rants. 

Childish? I find his write ups rather informative and grounded.

[DraydenWX]

Had see what’s going on with all this activity then I get ok here and realize it’s 3/4 of a page on where is PSU? Good Lord don’t inflate his ego.

[Ji]

the EURO AI keeps throwing snow our way after the 12th....its like a lake affect band that never stops

[LeesburgWx]

3 new pages and I thought something good happened. Instead, just the same cliff diving and Amber Alerts for PSU. We never change

[IronTy]

38 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Childish? I find his write ups rather informative and grounded.

You missed out on the politics thread, eh?

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

the EURO AI keeps throwing snow our way after the 12th....its like a lake affect band that never stops

What's the total snowfall because I want to compare it to Pivotal. 

[WxUSAF]

Ok enough Hoffman chatter. 

[Ji]

What's the total snowfall because I want to compare it to Pivotal. 

Not much. All light. Maybe 3 inches lol?