January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

all we do is punt

[NorthArlington101]

Rumor is EPS look okay - but still anything before Jan. 10 is probably a slight miracle.

Counting on the SWS tonight to deliver. 

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Rumor is EPS look okay - but still anything before Jan. 10 is probably a slight miracle.

Counting on the SWS tonight to deliver. 

 

I can’t wait until the inevitable 180 bringing us back to the goods. These last 2 gfs runs will age just as well as the runs that had us torching this week.

[IronTy]

32 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I swear the models got worse after all these so called upgrades. Can we downgrade again? 

Paging @WEATHER53

[IronTy]

Well today has been crap.  Maybe we can get Eric Webb to start honking about the SER so things can flip back to a big dog look.   

[Chris78]

21 minutes ago, Ji said:

all we do is punt

A week or so ago we were talking about being back in the game by New Years or shortly after. Then it was the 8/9th. Now it's the back half of January lol. 

Pretty soon it's going to be hoping that a couple weeks in February delivers. 

Typical winter in the Mid Atlantic 

[anotherman]

Paging [mention=7798]WEATHER53[/mention]

My non expert opinion on the models is that it is related to climate change. They are struggling to be accurate because things are constantly changing and creating more variables than in the past.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

I doubt the cold pool is a problem.  It's not not expansive and not very cold while surrounded by AN water temps. The -PNA otoh is.

These runs make me think that SE ridge is real. Of course, it can change in 6 or 12 hours, which is a true testament of the accuracy of these so-called "predictive" models. Times like now when I wish we only had 936-1212! Lol

Doesn't the cool pool help enforce a negative PNA?

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Well today has been crap.  Maybe we can get Eric Webb to start honking about the SER so things can flip back to a big dog look.   

Found this in the TN forum, looks like the SER is getting suppressed to the Deep South.

34 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And the 12z GEFS...did it finally find its way?  That looks a lot like the GEPS.  And that makes a lot of sense.  IF that can verify w/ that little bit of SER, that is an Apps snowstorm map as well as sliders for the rest of the forum.

 

[IronTy]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

A week or so ago we were talking about being back in the game by New Years or shortly after. Then it was the 8/9th. Now it's the back half of January lol. 

Pretty soon it's going to be hoping that a couple weeks in February delivers. 

Typical winter in the Mid Atlantic 

I mean, we haven't had a southern moisture storm in years now.  It's sort of dropped off our radar since it's the middle of winter but the drought marches onward.  I'm not sure why I'd expect us to magically start getting noreasters all of a sudden without a seismic pattern shift.  Yeah there's always the fluke chance (per the GFS), but until the base state changes I think they're just fantasy storms.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

7 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

A week or so ago we were talking about being back in the game by New Years or shortly after. Then it was the 8/9th. Now it's the back half of January lol. 

Pretty soon it's going to be hoping that a couple weeks in February delivers. 

Typical winter in the Mid Atlantic 

Reminder that it was supposed to torch this week.

[Maestrobjwa]

Well we got a nice dopamine hit yesterday, lol Now we gotta see if this was just a little rushed or if it's the proverbial can-kick. Kinda feel like we oughta know by next week. If we get to next week and Day 8-10 looks like we gotta punt them too then there might be a problem (maybe). All we can do kow is wait. Like I said yesterday...now may be a good time to take a break 

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Reminder that it was supposed to torch this week.

Torch or not there's still no snow.

It is what it is ,but there's just no SS action when it matters for us. 

Its literally been years now.

[IronTy]

I'm here to bring back some hope to the forum:

 

Checked out WB and JB just drew a comparison to the latest CFS run and 1996.  We're back in. 

[rjvanals]

Looking at the EPS there's quite a spread in temps starting Sunday and if you squint perhaps a remote chance of light snow over the weekend? 

[bncho]

12 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

A week or so ago we were talking about being back in the game by New Years or shortly after. Then it was the 8/9th. Now it's the back half of January lol. 

Pretty soon it's going to be hoping that a couple weeks in February delivers. 

Typical winter in the Mid Atlantic 

I would disagree with the can kick idea with this situation. It was always mid-late January that was going to be good. Then suddenly early-January pops up and gets overhyped, and then it disappears. IMO it was never our time, especially with that forecast +EPO.

[WEATHER53]

5 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I mean, we haven't had a southern moisture storm in years now.  It's sort of dropped off our radar since it's the middle of winter but the drought marches onward.  I'm not sure why I'd expect us to magically start getting noreasters all of a sudden without a seismic pattern shift.  Yeah there's always the fluke chance (per the GFS), but until the base state changes I think they're just fantasy storms.  

This is true.  Miller As which used to occur 50% of the time and models did well with are  about 15% now and models always were mostly helpless with Bs for DC area.  Bs have 12 hour prediction of off Hatteras and next presentation over Pittsburgh and repeat cycle everywhere in between. 
They never have really gotten the idea that most  Bs have precip shield too far NE of DC.  So we continue to get a lot of sample and example but zero consistency for any predictions 

[WxUSAF]

39 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Rumor is EPS look okay - but still anything before Jan. 10 is probably a slight miracle.

Counting on the SWS tonight to deliver. 

 

Maybe it flips back, but we had been looking at a -NAO dominated pattern for mid-late next week that gave us a chance at a storm. Last 2-3 cycles have diminished that by both weakening the NAO a bit and bringing that big PAC trough on shore (I think @Ralph Wiggumalluded to this?). After that we evolve into a PNA/EPO ridge pattern after the 10th and that seems more or less the same as it looked yesterday and the days prior. 

[NorthArlington101]

5 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Looking at the EPS there's quite a spread in temps starting Sunday and if you squint perhaps a remote chance of light snow over the weekend? 

A handful (4-5) of members bring the coastal far enough north to bring some wintry precip here. LWX actually shouted it out in their AFD as well. It would be an outlier outcome but something to watch while we wait for greener pastures.

[bncho]

https://x.com/bam_weather/status/2006077759941210284
BAM says it perfectly IMO. "Don't try to rush this. It won't work."
This is NOT a can kick pattern yet. Jan 15 and onwards has been the timeframe the better posters have been honking their horns on.

[Interstate]

59 minutes ago, Ji said:

all we do is punt

All that H off the coast will do is screw us.

[WxUSAF]

19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Maybe it flips back, but we had been looking at a -NAO dominated pattern for mid-late next week that gave us a chance at a storm. Last 2-3 cycles have diminished that by both weakening the NAO a bit and bringing that big PAC trough on shore (I think @Ralph Wiggumalluded to this?). After that we evolve into a PNA/EPO ridge pattern after the 10th and that seems more or less the same as it looked yesterday and the days prior. 

Visualized. NAO weakens and Pac trough crashes in pushing a ridge east. Still lots of time for this to switch back thought.

 

[rjvanals]

NAM brings us snow tonight

[Krs4Lfe]

58 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

A week or so ago we were talking about being back in the game by New Years or shortly after. Then it was the 8/9th. Now it's the back half of January lol. 

Pretty soon it's going to be hoping that a couple weeks in February delivers. 

Typical winter in the Mid Atlantic 

Typical depiction of almost all winters since 2019. Endless can kicking. Each time there needs to be "a miracle" or "thread the needle" and then we move onto the next one. Until we get into March and we realize it's all over lol

[aldie 22]

17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Visualized. NAO weakens and Pac trough crashes in pushing a ridge east. Still lots of time for this to switch back thought.

 

I mean are all these Twitter guys your friends or do you just type in weather and read what pops up? There's a million of these jokers out there it seems lol

[WxUSAF]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

I mean are all these Twitter guys your friends or do you just type in weather and read what pops up? There's a million of these jokers out there it seems lol

The For You algorithm has me down pat 

[IronTy]

3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I mean are all these Twitter guys your friends or do you just type in weather and read what pops up? There's a million of these jokers out there it seems lol

That Twitter met knows his stuff.  He predicts that mid-late January has the best chance for wintry weather.  (Checks earth annual orbital procession)...bold call.   

[bncho]

We should all take a break from the LR thread and track something in the short-range that might as well be nothing. If the mods wanna remove the thread above then they are free to do so. 

[stormy]

The 10 - 15 day features moisture trying to move northeast from the lower Mississippi valley.

Confluence with LP over S.E Canada suppresses.   

[bncho]

Alright guys. HH GFS is about to run. It was what renewed our hopes yesterday. And honestly? Please stop with the cliff jumping. It's kinda ridiculous.