January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[aldie 22]

13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Weenies need a 24” hit of straight unfiltered digital blue every 6 hours or they go into painful withdrawal 

And if the pattern doesn't change at exactly 5:27pm on the 6th then a certain someone will chime in with his delayed bullshit

[Ralph Wiggum]

Chuck been awfully quiet since 12z dropped

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

 

Loving the general positive vibes right now.

Wait about 12 hours.  I’ve been checking in here and there and there have been no less than 27 mood changes between 0z and 12z. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Chuck been awfully quiet since 12z dropped

Why would you even summon him? 
 

Shut up Chuck. 

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Alfoman said:

Think the banter in here yesterday and this morning has been a bit restless and ridiculous to be honest. While there have been a number of rug pulls and pattern reversals over the years, seeing a window of opportunity line up in the mid-range with practically every index close to/in the correct quadrant is exceedingly rare. The beginnings of the NAO retrograde westward and Western US ridging are within the next 3-4 days, it is not a distant pattern change still in lala land. Getting the pieces to align and timing perfect so southern stream energy doesn't get squashed/sheared or that a phase doesn't only occur well offshore will ALWAYS be a struggle. We're hunting for a big dog coastal, it's a fragile balance. 

The stigma that we need a DGEX type solution every suite to overamplify every shortwave that comes through for us to feel confident...is irresponsible. We had plenty of rug-pull back then too, we just don't remember it as well because we hit more frequently than we have in the last decade. 

Look at the Euro AI if you want to feel something...three coastals in a row for the rough timeframes we have had pinned down for the last few days: 8th/9th, 10th/11th, 14th/15th. I expect the ensembles to start lighting up over the next few days at the least with some potential positive solutions. 

 

You are talking to a group over analyzing the 252 hour models.  In like 5 years this has become normalized.  Back in the day, we’d mercilessly troll wennies who would do this. 

[Prestige Worldwide]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Wait about 12 hours.  I’ve been checking in here and there and there have been no less than 27 mood changes between 0z and 12z. 

So true- but I’m waiting on any real tracking until Saturday when you return to the area.  I don’t care what the calendar says- that starts the DMV winter 

[Eskimo Joe]

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You are talking to a group over analyzing the 252 hour models.  In like 5 years this has become normalized.  Back in the day, we’d mercilessly troll wennies who would do this. 

There's no law that states we can't do that.

[Eskimo Joe]

Euro Weeklies load up a ton of cold air towards the second half of the month. As @WxUSAF has said several times, Canada has a great snowpack this winter compared to previous years. All very good things to see.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You are talking to a group over analyzing the 252 hour models.  In like 5 years this has become normalized.  Back in the day, we’d mercilessly troll wennies who would do this. 

Amen!  Now it's just "accepted" somehow, for better or worse (worse most likely, but oh well!).  It is December 29, and there are now 16 (!!!) pages in the January medium range thread already...and probably half of those are whining and complaining that some 200+ hour setup doesn't look HECS-like enough at one cycle when it was perfect 6 hours earlier.  I swear, some people think or expect that we get wall-to-wall cold and/or snow for weeks on end (a'la 2013-14 which was quite an exception), when that's not how it works around here.  You take the favorable periods that come and go, and hope something good and wintry works out.  Just because we may at some point flip back to "meh" and somewhat warm for a time doesn't mean it's going to be a torch with nothing through early March.

All cynicism aside, I am optimistic (as much as one can be in these parts) for January.  I think we likely score at least one really solid event that will be Folks to Jaws worthy.  Not necessarily a HECS (probably not), but a good area-wide high end warning level snow, bigger than we got last year or the previous winter.

[CAPE]

35 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Why would you even summon him? 
 

Shut up Chuck. 

LOL

TBH his posts have been much better lately. He possibly knows too much, and the rest of us just cant grasp it.

[Scraff]

Uh oh. About to get happy hour FOLKsie in here. I mean I am hoping anyway. Cracks a beer and Goofus watching goes on…

[bncho]

Chillax guys. HH GFS is running. What could possibly go wrong?

[TSSN+]

Folks? 
 

 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Folks? 
 

 

It’s a crusher 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s a crusher 

Ive got crummy maps rn but it really looks like a HECS. The maps won’t be suitable for young children 

[87storms]

You know we’re hungry when we’re looking at 10 day ops runs.

[Paleocene]

yeah that's an "uhhhh... guys"

[nj2va]

Someone hold me

[jayyy]

That’s a FOLKS!! Day 7-10 window is heating up!

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

You know we’re hungry when we’re looking at 10 day ops runs.

Big ones sniffed out early 

[DDweatherman]

I mean…at least something’s there in the window we’ve been monitoring.

i can tell you the gfs is producing a KU event this run. 

[jayyy]

You know we’re hungry when we’re looking at 10 day ops runs.

Could be worse.. everyone could be looking at 384 hr maps

[87storms]

It is a hecs, though.

[winter_warlock]

Wow if only...

[Cobalt]

We're looking at maps so distant in time that quantum computing might come out and improve model accuracy x100 times over before the event actually gets to our doorstep

[winter_warlock]

[DDweatherman]

First happy hour fantasy hecs at d10 or less of the season. 

[winter_warlock]

Slow mover

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Cobalt said:

We're looking at maps so distant in time that quantum computing might come out and improve model accuracy x100 times over before the event actually gets to our doorstep

Nerd. Let me enjoy the 20” Day 10 snowstorm 

[87storms]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

Selling my Jeep was dumb.