January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

12z EPS depicts an an impressive west based -NAO with a TPV lobe underneath. Pacific isnt perfect but hints of some energy taking the southern route and some sort of interaction/phasing with the NS around the 6th. Details sketchy as expected but a signal for something is there.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z EPS depicts an an impressive west based -NAO with a TPV lobe underneath. Pacific isnt perfect but hints of some energy taking the southern route and some sort of interaction/phasing with the NS around the 6th. Details sketchy as expected but a signal for something is there.

Pacific isn't perfect is a 504dm Polar Vortex over Alaska lol. That's going to trend warmer unless the PV gets out of there.. 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

Not after the gfs and Canadian runs at 12z

So did we re-punt the first half of January? Im having a tough time reading the room. Every hour a new elephant enters.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Pacific isn't perfect is a 504dm Polar Vortex over Alaska lol. That's going to trend warmer unless the PV gets out of there.. 

Cant have everything Chuck. We get snow more times than not in flawed patterns. On that run, its cold enough. Just cant know how specific features may 'trend' in future runs. Maybe the -NAO ends up positive lol.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Cant have everything Chuck. We get snow more times than not in flawed patterns. On that run, its cold enough. Just cant know how specific features may 'trend' in future runs. Maybe the -NAO ends up positive lol.

I just know from experience that a bad Pacific/good Atlantic usually trends warmer. The NAO has rarely been negative in long duration since 2011, so yeah some of that is the NAO trending in the wrong direction. +EPO's can be underrated though, and models don't really get the strength of the Pacific jet right from this range. Sometimes it will trend away from +epo though. 

[brooklynwx99]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z EPS depicts an an impressive west based -NAO with a TPV lobe underneath. Pacific isnt perfect but hints of some energy taking the southern route and some sort of interaction/phasing with the NS around the 6th. Details sketchy as expected but a signal for something is there.

 

yeah, starting to get excited. that's legit

and the pattern is only becoming more favorable as the PNA rises and EPO drops

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This ends up dry, btw 

Looks nice  there but. Surface maps can be a bit misleading lol

[Wxdavis5784]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

It's that pesky GL low pumping the ridge as they always do. Too far away to worry, but several people seemed to not understand why the surface High to the north was ineffective. 

Usually it’s the other way around though. We’re usually looking good and then out of nowhere that f***ing GL Low will appear like clockwork.

[WxUSAF]

Wooo baby there’s some bangers in here

 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

12z EPS depicts an an impressive west based -NAO with a TPV lobe underneath. Pacific isnt perfect but hints of some energy taking the southern route and some sort of interaction/phasing with the NS around the 6th. Details sketchy as expected but a signal for something is there.

 

Love that look. It's the one I was talking about a couple of days ago. It is going to depend if we can get a piece of that pacific energy to eject into the CONUS. 

[MillvilleWx]

Me thinks work will be busy in January…..

[bncho]

12z EPS and GEFS average around 2" for the first ten days of January, and we still await the even better pattern later in the month.

 

[MillvilleWx]

Cautiously optimistic heading into January. The addition of potential southern stream is what you want to see for better potential in these parts. Blocking plus southern stream opens the door for more appreciable storms. Plenty to like about the latest ensembles, but it’s still D10-15, so don’t throw all the chips in just yet. Will be something to keep an eye on and track as we move into 2026. 

[stormy]

 

6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Cautiously optimistic heading into January. The addition of potential southern stream is what you want to see for better potential in these parts. Blocking plus southern stream opens the door for more appreciable storms. Plenty to like about the latest ensembles, but it’s still D10-15, so don’t throw all the chips in just yet. Will be something to keep an eye on and track as we move into 2026. 

Your wisdom is impressive.    A lot of bullish hype in here this afternoon but I believe most don't understand or admit how difficult serious  Drought is to overcome.

That southern jet needs to be on steroids..............................

 

[bncho]

I dunno if anything will happen but IMO the early-Jan pattern is kinda similar to the ones present in DCA to BOS major winter storms.
+PNA looks to show up. So does a west based -NAO. And the STJ is actually alive for once, which IMO has been the piece we've been missing for the last few years. The PV is on our side of the world, so we can tap into cold air very easily. It's pretty rare we see that combo. We just need that pacific to be a little bit better and then there's real big dog potential.

I'm liking this January 2026 look better than January 2025 solely because we have an STJ. Hopefully we can reel a big one in, or maybe we'll just flop on our faces after the NYD clipper lol

 

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

I dunno if anything will happen but IMO the early-Jan pattern is kinda similar to the ones present in DCA to BOS major winter storms.
+PNA looks to show up. So does a west based -NAO. And the STJ is actually alive for once, which IMO has been the piece we've been missing for the last few years. The PV is on our side of the world, so we can tap into cold air very easily. It's pretty rare we see that combo. We just need that pacific to be a little bit better and then there's real big dog potential.

I'm liking this January 2026 look better than January 2025 solely because we have an STJ. Hopefully we can reel a big one in, or maybe we'll just flop on our faces after the NYD clipper lol

 

A few moderate ones, I’ll be ecstatic. Big Dogs are becoming very elusive and tales of lore

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

A few moderate ones, I’ll be ecstatic. Big Dogs are becoming very elusive and tales of lore

And big dogs are very rare for us in Nina’s

[Chris78]

10 minutes ago, bncho said:

I dunno if anything will happen but IMO the early-Jan pattern is kinda similar to the ones present in DCA to BOS major winter storms.
+PNA looks to show up. So does a west based -NAO. And the STJ is actually alive for once, which IMO has been the piece we've been missing for the last few years. The PV is on our side of the world, so we can tap into cold air very easily. It's pretty rare we see that combo. We just need that pacific to be a little bit better and then there's real big dog potential.

I'm liking this January 2026 look better than January 2025 solely because we have an STJ. Hopefully we can reel a big one in, or maybe we'll just flop on our faces after the NYD clipper lol

 

I'll believe the STJ when I see it.

I'd he elated with a region wide 4 to 8 incher

[stormy]

24 hours ago the NWS POP for Augusta on Monday was 60%. This afternoon it has plunged to 20%.......................  The Drought controls..................................................

[Ralph Wiggum]

17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

And big dogs are very rare for us in Nina’s

I feel like some really big ones have formed in recent Nina but they either blew up off the coast or just scraped. I wonder why that is? Position of the pna? Racing NS? Blocking location?

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I'll believe the STJ when I see it.

I'd he elated with a region wide 4 to 8 incher

The models are usually pretty good at picking up that STJ energy. They just cant pick up when/if any of it will actually come east. The Euro used to hold energy back a ton. Not sure if that was addressed in the most recent update or not. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Afternoon EPS tries for legit Alaskan ridge and health cross polar flow with retrograding -NAO into the western domain as we move through most of January. Doesn't look like any sustain garbage pattern or warmup, quite the opposite in fact. 

[Maestrobjwa]

17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The models are usually pretty good at picking up that STJ energy. They just cant pick up when/if any of it will actually come east. The Euro used to hold energy back a ton. Not sure if that was addressed in the most recent update or not. 

Do you think that problem played a role into it's colossal goof with the phantom folks storm of last February?

[Eskimo Joe]

Things are lining up folks. There's a clear trend in our favor:

 

 

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Things are lining up folks. There's a clear trend in our favor:

 

 

But Chuck is going to find some anomalous dm somewhere

[Ji]

And big dogs are very rare for us in Nina’s

I wish 1996 was not Nina lol

[Ji]

But Chuck is going to find some anomalous dm somewhere

Can’t have everybody on the board biased for snow!

[Wintrest]

What are the years of January MECS/HCES that were forecast 5+ days, compared to those that came together T-Minus 72 hours. Starting timeframe is 1978. What were the biggest surprises during that time?

[stormy]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Can’t have everybody on the board biased for snow!

 To answer your question............... NO................ Snow results from precipitation when the 5000 ft. temperature is below 32 F.