January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

12z EPS depicts an an impressive west based -NAO with a TPV lobe underneath. Pacific isnt perfect but hints of some energy taking the southern route and some sort of interaction/phasing with the NS around the 6th. Details sketchy as expected but a signal for something is there.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z EPS depicts an an impressive west based -NAO with a TPV lobe underneath. Pacific isnt perfect but hints of some energy taking the southern route and some sort of interaction/phasing with the NS around the 6th. Details sketchy as expected but a signal for something is there.

Pacific isn't perfect is a 504dm Polar Vortex over Alaska lol. That's going to trend warmer unless the PV gets out of there.. 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

Not after the gfs and Canadian runs at 12z

So did we re-punt the first half of January? Im having a tough time reading the room. Every hour a new elephant enters.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Pacific isn't perfect is a 504dm Polar Vortex over Alaska lol. That's going to trend warmer unless the PV gets out of there.. 

Cant have everything Chuck. We get snow more times than not in flawed patterns. On that run, its cold enough. Just cant know how specific features may 'trend' in future runs. Maybe the -NAO ends up positive lol.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Cant have everything Chuck. We get snow more times than not in flawed patterns. On that run, its cold enough. Just cant know how specific features may 'trend' in future runs. Maybe the -NAO ends up positive lol.

I just know from experience that a bad Pacific/good Atlantic usually trends warmer. The NAO has rarely been negative in long duration since 2011, so yeah some of that is the NAO trending in the wrong direction. +EPO's can be underrated though, and models don't really get the strength of the Pacific jet right from this range. Sometimes it will trend away from +epo though. 

[brooklynwx99]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z EPS depicts an an impressive west based -NAO with a TPV lobe underneath. Pacific isnt perfect but hints of some energy taking the southern route and some sort of interaction/phasing with the NS around the 6th. Details sketchy as expected but a signal for something is there.

 

yeah, starting to get excited. that's legit

and the pattern is only becoming more favorable as the PNA rises and EPO drops

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This ends up dry, btw 

Looks nice  there but. Surface maps can be a bit misleading lol

[Wxdavis5784]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

It's that pesky GL low pumping the ridge as they always do. Too far away to worry, but several people seemed to not understand why the surface High to the north was ineffective. 

Usually it’s the other way around though. We’re usually looking good and then out of nowhere that f***ing GL Low will appear like clockwork.

[WxUSAF]

Wooo baby there’s some bangers in here

 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

12z EPS depicts an an impressive west based -NAO with a TPV lobe underneath. Pacific isnt perfect but hints of some energy taking the southern route and some sort of interaction/phasing with the NS around the 6th. Details sketchy as expected but a signal for something is there.

 

Love that look. It's the one I was talking about a couple of days ago. It is going to depend if we can get a piece of that pacific energy to eject into the CONUS.