January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[sankaty]

1 minute ago, sankaty said:

 

Thanks for these. Are they only available to WeatherBell subscribers? I have a weathermodels.com sub. 

Found it on weathermodels.com under Special Charts > Teleconnections. Amazing!

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Tons of reality in my 68 yrs of  life with coastal runners Miller A baby 

Aside from March 1993, which storm that dumped on Atlanta gave us 2'+?

[dendrite]

MOS max/min temp maps for the next couple days.

 

[Prismshine Productions]

GFS kept the interior below freezing the entire 16 day run... Goodness

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[Prismshine Productions]

For shits and giggles:

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[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Aside from March 1993, which storm that dumped on Atlanta gave us 2'+?

2 feet is pretty damned rare up here….even 20-burger only happened about a dozen times in ORH. 
 

But keeping in the spirit of the discussion, Feb ‘58 is prob the only other one I can think of. Not sure if Mar 1960 got decent snow into ATL but it def did in the Carolinas. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Let's form the storm before we worry about where the load is blown.

 

[das]

50 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

For shits and giggles:

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I think it's funny that Northern VT, NH and Maine have the lowest totals until you get down to the coastal plain of NC/SC.

[CoastalWx]

Euro suite says we need to move that trough axis more west.

[codfishsnowman]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a huge index signal centered around the 1st, + and/or - a couple of dates, which are derived from the ensembles.

Somewhat ironic, the same ensemble mass -fields that are analyzed in deriving those same index values, do not actually carry a significant event through that period

That is oddly troubling. 

Meanwhile, the operational versions have at least been off and on .. perhaps 50% of the time, plotting then not plotting significant events within that index-signaled window.  

That's what we are dealing with.  

Sometimes...  the ensemble means will actually collapse toward the denser physically applied operational flagship versions.  Rarer...but can happen in that direction.  If that is going to be the case this time... proooobably start to see some at least tentative operational agreement on which dates to center on.  So far...we've really seen 29/30th to 02/03 and all dates in between. Not really centering...  This may also come together/coalesce in guidance better after we get this present major off the boards.  

I will also add... purely from a climatology of major events historical perspective it is seldom that major winter storms occur in short order.   We've seen two moderate impact events pull that off in the past; aggregating to a major by weight of both kind of thing.  But this thing on Sun/Mon ... then having an 06z GFS 5 days later is rarely observed.

Well isn't that thing a real storm and this is just epic overrunning? I know there is to be a secondary reflection for eastern areas but the atmosphere is kind of primed for more good snow by then anyway

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, ariof said:

That storm on the GFS op has a ridiculous band of SN from MSY to ATL to CLT and then on up the coast. 12" of snow in MSY (the 06Z also had this, a year after they had their record snowfall; maybe we should all move to Bourbon Street), 2-3 feet on ATL (record is 8"). We manage 1-2' up here.

Would be wild.

If leftovers are a foot, after it destroys the south that's still pretty amazing. Sign me up!

 

[vortex95]

7 hours ago, Kitz Craver said:

06z GFS with an absolute monster Miller A for Feb 1. Wow.

CoastalWx get ready! 

[Kitz Craver]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro suite says we need to move that trough axis more west.

Do you think that is possible at this juncture?

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, Fozz said:

I just learned the other day that January 1977 had flurries in the Bahamas

Flurries in the Bahamas occurred I think in the mid or late 2000s as well. And it was no where near the level of the Jan 1977 cold.

Jan 1977 cold you had the 516 dm 1000-500 thickness into N FL!  Incredible.

[CT Rain]

Just uploaded a new youtube video after some of the 12z guidance. You may find it a bit interesting - or not lol  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tb_0phGpeCs

 

[vortex95]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro suite says we need to move that trough axis more west.

Apply your "English" to it.  It worked for this upcoming storm! 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Do you think that is possible at this juncture?

I mean it wouldn’t take much, but I’d rather the euro stuff showing storms vs gfs.

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Everyone overlooking the GEM... Dropped a 73 redux on South Carolina with sleet mixed in (anyone got the IP map by chance?) then started coming up the coast

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[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Flurries in the Bahamas occurred I think in the mid or late 2000s as well. And it was no where near the level of the Jan 1977 cold.

Jan 1977 cold you had the 516 dm 1000-500 thickness into N FL!  Incredible.

They probably got a lot of snowstorms during the last glacial maximum. 

[Typhoon Tip]

43 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

Well isn't that thing a real storm and this is just epic overrunning? I know there is to be a secondary reflection for eastern areas but the atmosphere is kind of primed for more good snow by then anyway

yeah .. you know, fair enough point.  Thing is, if we look back at climatology... we don't typically see 20"  this and then 20" that, < 10 days apart. Regardless of cause, that's just a flat fact.  If we can count the number of times that's happened in 50 years on one hand, that is by definition rare.

But maybe in the sample size, we just haven't had a huge overrunning anomaly next to a cyclone bomb, anyway.  In other words, you just can't get the circumstance to arise that often. 

The problem with huge storms with huge output, they are doing that because there is a huge restoring deficit.  Those have to be rare.  

But look at it this way ... we have not had two huge events spaced closely in time since ... 2015 FEB maybe?   that's 11 years ago.  Why not? LOL  seems pretty f'n rare to me.

[George001]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Aside from March 1993, which storm that dumped on Atlanta gave us 2'+?

The A in Miller A = asshole

The B in Miller B = burial

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro suite says we need to move that trough axis more west.

I think you were onto that aspect last week if memory serves... some post along the way.

And I agree...  The problem with this being an index -based signal ( meaning it seems to only be in the indexes) is that it doesn't qualify aspects like the actual positioning of features into sweep or key-slot positions. Bad locations still fit.  That's the reason why I've only been discussing the window in time and not really pushing an actual event. 

Yet... I mean this can formulate - there's time  I don't think that is impossible; one aspect I keep noticing is that the +PNA ridge in the west is actually relatively fixed at along a MT longitude thru the period.   It's not clear why the models have such a boner for positioning the trough couplet so far E of that total wave space like that.   stretch city!

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Aside from March 1993, which storm that dumped on Atlanta gave us 2'+?

Jan 2011 

[codfishsnowman]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah .. you know, fair enough point.  Thing is, if we look back at climatology... we don't typically see 20"  this and then 20" that, < 10 days apart. Regardless of cause, that's just a flat fact.  If we can count the number of times that's happened in 50 years on one hand, that is by definition rare.

But maybe in the sample size, we just haven't had a huge overrunning anomaly next to a cyclone bomb, anyway.  In other words, you just can't get the circumstance to arise that often. 

The problem with huge storms with huge output, they are doing that because there is a huge restoring deficit.  Those have to be rare.  

But look at it this way ... we have not had two huge events spaced closely in time since ... 2015 FEB maybe?   that's 11 years ago.  Why not? LOL  seems pretty f'n rare to me.

I wasn't thinking quite as lofty as 20, moreso just widespread ten plus back to back but .....these big numbers being thrown out with the overrunning on steroids for later in the weekend seem slightly ambitious even with an inch of qpf widespread. I am old enough to have seen plenty of 10 to 1 snow in frigid temps. 

Remember the end of the party in 2/11 everyone except you Scott and a couple others reigning in the numbers with that overrunning event....Some places in central New England and northern Southern New England were forecasting up to 20 inches!!

 

 

[vortex95]

58 minutes ago, George001 said:

The A in Miller A = asshole

The B in Miller B = burial

The C in Miller C = CoastalWx!  

I seem to recall some time ago, Miller C was for those TCs that phase w/ an intense baroclinic trough (a la Sandy, Agnes, and Hazel).  But I wonder that was just a suggestion, as I can find no documentation on it.

There is Miller C-E for snow events for the Mid-Atlantic
https://glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/stormtypes.htm

In the Mid-Atlantic In the Miller A description, I don't agree w/ the STJ being weak.  A strong STJ is what drives Gulf storm often as there is no PJ involved.  One often overlooked classic was March 29. 1984.  Blizzard in New England, but other big records set in terms of March heat and tornadoes the previous two days.
 

[CT Valley Snowman]

Nam looking pretty amped through 51

 

[dendrite]

Just now, CT Valley Snowman said:

Nam looking pretty amped through 51

 

That’s zonked