January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[sankaty]

1 minute ago, sankaty said:

 

Thanks for these. Are they only available to WeatherBell subscribers? I have a weathermodels.com sub. 

Found it on weathermodels.com under Special Charts > Teleconnections. Amazing!

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Tons of reality in my 68 yrs of  life with coastal runners Miller A baby 

Aside from March 1993, which storm that dumped on Atlanta gave us 2'+?

[dendrite]

MOS max/min temp maps for the next couple days.

 

[Prismshine Productions]

GFS kept the interior below freezing the entire 16 day run... Goodness

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[Prismshine Productions]

For shits and giggles:

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[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Aside from March 1993, which storm that dumped on Atlanta gave us 2'+?

2 feet is pretty damned rare up here….even 20-burger only happened about a dozen times in ORH. 
 

But keeping in the spirit of the discussion, Feb ‘58 is prob the only other one I can think of. Not sure if Mar 1960 got decent snow into ATL but it def did in the Carolinas. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Let's form the storm before we worry about where the load is blown.

 

[das]

50 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

For shits and giggles:

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I think it's funny that Northern VT, NH and Maine have the lowest totals until you get down to the coastal plain of NC/SC.

[CoastalWx]

Euro suite says we need to move that trough axis more west.

[codfishsnowman]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a huge index signal centered around the 1st, + and/or - a couple of dates, which are derived from the ensembles.

Somewhat ironic, the same ensemble mass -fields that are analyzed in deriving those same index values, do not actually carry a significant event through that period

That is oddly troubling. 

Meanwhile, the operational versions have at least been off and on .. perhaps 50% of the time, plotting then not plotting significant events within that index-signaled window.  

That's what we are dealing with.  

Sometimes...  the ensemble means will actually collapse toward the denser physically applied operational flagship versions.  Rarer...but can happen in that direction.  If that is going to be the case this time... proooobably start to see some at least tentative operational agreement on which dates to center on.  So far...we've really seen 29/30th to 02/03 and all dates in between. Not really centering...  This may also come together/coalesce in guidance better after we get this present major off the boards.  

I will also add... purely from a climatology of major events historical perspective it is seldom that major winter storms occur in short order.   We've seen two moderate impact events pull that off in the past; aggregating to a major by weight of both kind of thing.  But this thing on Sun/Mon ... then having an 06z GFS 5 days later is rarely observed.

Well isn't that thing a real storm and this is just epic overrunning? I know there is to be a secondary reflection for eastern areas but the atmosphere is kind of primed for more good snow by then anyway

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, ariof said:

That storm on the GFS op has a ridiculous band of SN from MSY to ATL to CLT and then on up the coast. 12" of snow in MSY (the 06Z also had this, a year after they had their record snowfall; maybe we should all move to Bourbon Street), 2-3 feet on ATL (record is 8"). We manage 1-2' up here.

Would be wild.

If leftovers are a foot, after it destroys the south that's still pretty amazing. Sign me up!

 

[vortex95]

7 hours ago, Kitz Craver said:

06z GFS with an absolute monster Miller A for Feb 1. Wow.

CoastalWx get ready!