January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Kiss of death 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Can we put a temporary lock on Corey's thread for a day or 2?

We should put a lock on his account in general…

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Burying energy like the icon.

Northern stream energy looked further south..maybe a better end result?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Northern stream energy looked further south..maybe a better end result?

Fantastic solution 

[OrangeCTWX]

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Fantastic solution 

Haha... It's like the GFS was late to the mid range performance, now it's trying to steal the show

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We should put a lock on his account in general…

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Burying energy like the icon.

Foot+ there big boyee…

[HoarfrostHubb]

That is something we haven't seen in a while.  High impact over many US regions

[The 4 Seasons]

Kuchera is solely based on temperatures and doesn't factor in anything else in like omega and dgz.

The ratios for this storm its throwing out average around 16-20:1 depending on your location. Its obviously fluctuating from very high at the beginning of the storm when its super cold and then drops as mid-levels warm up a bit as the system approaches. 

Just post 10:1 or qpf 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Foot+ there big boyee…

Nah so much left on the table 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Long duration on the gfs. Snowing well into Monday 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Nah so much left on the table 

The irony of your posting this is not lost on me. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Nah so much left on the table 

Scoots East pretty quickly so HECS not on the table. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Long duration on the gfs. Snowing well into Tuesday

fyp

[Typhoon Tip]

There is a thread but might I recommend (Brian or Will ? ) that there be something more substance/elaborate/annotated/discussed as start?  

It's just an extension of this I guess. 

Anyway, this solution by the GFS is interestingly answering right on the heels of what Ray and I were discussing last hour, re the lack of true coastal storm development.  This one's trying to make a go of a better coherence in that regard.  In act, in fairness it's got one now, with sub 1000 mb ( granted not hugely so...) passing proximal to the BM.  

There's time to correct this all NW even more, too.  I'm not sure I see why that can't happen frankly... It's really about the elbow of the N/stream out over Nebraska or thereabouts...if that kinks more SW-NE in orientation, this whole bag of isentropic bomb will plow farther N-W

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Scoots East pretty quickly so HECS not on the table. 

I don't think its completely off the table, yet. Depends how the trailing energy trends. Unless you just meant this run verbatim. 

[ariof]

RIP air travel next week … at least it's a relative ebb so there's some slack in the system.

DFW, ATL, CLT are in no way prepared for this, and then every northeastern hub gets hit with heavy snow. I guess ORD, IAH and MIA escape mostly unscathed.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nah so much left on the table 

Ok 10+ for sema verbatim lol. Yea left some on table but nobody wants a gfs hecs bullseye at d5. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Big bump on the QPF

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[dryslot]

That was a pretty big shift north on the 12z GFS seeing it was an outlier south.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Solid long duration 8-12

[HoarfrostHubb]

I made a tiny little thread for the tiny little threat for this evening, so as not to clutter up this main thread.

It's gonna get wild in this main one!

 

[8611Blizz]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Solid long duration 8-12

How long? 

[ineedsnow]

this is going to be big!  trending towards 12 to 18 plus for many I think.

[weatherwiz]

Verbatim on the GFS I think you would see a major band well up to the Mass Pike. Imagine if we were to pop at 700 low...damn 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said:

How long? 

36 hours or so? Sunday through late Monday for many 

[8611Blizz]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

36 hours or so? Sunday through late Monday for many 

OK. Thanks.  Yeah that would be Chinese snow torture...

[ineedsnow]

CMC going to be good

[dendrite]

GFS is still mostly southern stream driven…that was juiced coming out of TX vs 6z. I can’t help but think the northern stream phasing in will be a bigger player in the end.