January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Wxbear25]

 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Icon looks nice 

It most certainly does even though it leaves behind a good chunk of energy diving from the northern stream on the backend of our energy in the SW

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

Super imposed is the Lake Ontario snow belt ..

[CoastalWx]

Can we just stick to posting 10:1 maps if we do post? Koochie maps are ridiculous overall even if this storm is cold.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Icon isn’t bad, still feel like it leaves a lot on the table. 

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Can we just stick to posting 10:1 maps if we do post? Koochie maps are ridiculous overall even if this storm is cold.

also total precip maps add a good amount of lake effect and tonights qpf

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Wxbear25 said:

 

It most certainly does even though it leaves behind a good chunk of energy diving from the northern stream on the backend of our energy in the SW

I kind of want the first low as the main low with the slug of moisture. Secondary development would be great, but I don’t think there’s enough juice to really get us prolific amounts. 
 

I think we may have said, get the good overrunning first before that main low.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Another day of north trends and the nyc cop is in trouble…

[moneypitmike]

11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

For the insane rates we need another 100 mile shift north 

175

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can we just stick to posting 10:1 maps if we do post? Koochie maps are ridiculous overall even if this storm is cold.

No

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

 

It most certainly does even though it leaves behind a good chunk of energy diving from the northern stream on the backend of our energy in the SW

i know it's 25-dollar words but it's wave harmonics - or lack thereof.

The flow is too fast.  The  western ridge leading and during the 26/27th "continental overrunning bomb" is not oriented or behaving in such a physical manner as to set up better phasing - which is improved harmonics. Taller more robust ridge, blossoming as a trough is diving near the Dakotas or MN ..etc ... is what to look for. 

We " might" see a better performance int hat regard toward the 30th

 

[Henry's Weather]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

 

This is so funny

[JKEisMan]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can we just stick to posting 10:1 maps if we do post? Koochie maps are ridiculous overall even if this storm is cold.

 

got it. It’s the icon anyway. the icon eps qpf mean instead

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can we just stick to posting 10:1 maps if we do post? Koochie maps are ridiculous overall even if this storm is cold.

Icon 10:1 is 5-10”. Not sure why I got bunned for floating the idea that this is what we could see.

Maybe it’s more; I don’t know; but it’s definitely in play 

[ORH_wxman]

Icon leaves energy behind which caps it. Prob more like a 8-14” type event. Ideally you want to keep most of the energy intact but at the same time not amp it too quickly so you can prolong the overrunning portion…then when the rest of it dives in from the backside of the trough, you blow up a coastal which turns it into a KU type storm. That’s threading the needle a bit there but it’s well within the possibilities. 

[ORH_wxman]

For cold storms like this, you’re gonna beat 10 to 1 unless you are on the northern edge where it will be arctic sand. So prob something in between the 10 to 1 and the Kuchie maps. Typical cold storm climo is somewhere in the 13 to 1 or 14 to 1 range…but obviously that can go much higher or lower depending on where the lift is focused. 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Icon leaves energy behind which caps it. Prob more like a 8-14” type event. Ideally you want to keep most of the energy intact but at the same time not amp it too quickly so you can prolong the overrunning portion…then when the rest of it dives in from the backside of the trough, you blow up a coastal which turns it into a KU type storm. That’s threading the needle a bit there but it’s well within the possibilities. 

I don't know what your thoughts are on this ... but, the reason for that - I suspect - is the velocity soaked field.  

You know this, but velocity is expressed in both the balanced/basal geostrophic flow rate - which is high-ish because of the gradient being relatively steep through the period.  But, also in the wave propagation speed...  which via "Navier-Stroking" the mathematics can also be demonstrated as rooted back to gradient.

Anyway, I suspect that 'leaving energy behind' is shearing physical observation of the above stressing. 

[weatherwiz]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can we just stick to posting 10:1 maps if we do post? Koochie maps are ridiculous overall even if this storm is cold.

dendrite should just create an algorithm that blocks the posting of snow maps 

[tunafish]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

dendrite should just create an algorithm that blocks the posting of snow maps 

This is my next project after I finish the Tippy AI-bot.

[ORH_wxman]

Given there aren’t any ptype issues (as of now), you might as well just post QPF maps. 

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

For cold storms like this, you’re gonna beat 10 to 1 unless you are on the northern edge where it will be arctic sand. So prob something in between the 10 to 1 and the Kuchie maps. Typical cold storm climo is somewhere in the 13 to 1 or 14 to 1 range…but obviously that can go much higher or lower depending on where the lift is focused. 

Of course you’d have to be clearing every 6hrs as well. A more prolonged event with amounts that high and you start dealing with the weight of the snow upon itself.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Can we put a temporary lock on Corey's thread for a day or 2?

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Icon 10:1 is 5-10”. Not sure why I got bunned for floating the idea that this is what we could see.

Maybe it’s more; I don’t know; but it’s definitely in play 

I think it’s more 8-14 truthfully and I’d be ecstatic. Even 8-14” events aren’t common in most winters. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Oh boy…gfs.

[CoastalWx]

Man he made a thread? God.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think it’s more 8-14 truthfully and I’d be ecstatic. Even 8-14” events aren’t common in most winters. 

I think many would, but there has been a lot of talk about high end potential. 8-14” is a great system. It’s not a KU, nor is it highly anomalous 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Man he made a thread? God.

Kiss of death 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Oh boy…gfs.

Burying energy like the icon.

[ORH_wxman]

We’re like 96-102 hours from start time. I don’t see an issue with making a thread. We can migrate over there at some point today. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Man he made a thread? God.

Heh... I would at this point...

there are no guidance that are zero on this thing.  The causal aspect also appear straight forward, too.

In fact, I'm thinking about starting one for the 30th, because that one interests me. LOL   this one's an overrunning for folks that have a dopa dependency on blue qpf paint on wintry weather charts.  yeah yeah

[CoastalWx]

It’s a joke fellas.