January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, nbweather said:

Realistically, how far north can this come? Impressive trend for increasing heights and less confluence out ahead. 0z and 6z ECMWF track the 850mb low to the eastern Great Lakes before the coastal reflection takes over off of the ME coast. 

Yeah I’d like to see more of a coastal take over and keep a slug of moisture going vs  blowing it to our SW 

[SouthCoastMA]

I'm not really worried about the initial low, but rather any redevelopment being over our heads. I'd like to see that phased 500 evolution drag more east or south vs over our heads. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, nbweather said:

Realistically, how far north can this come? Impressive trend for increasing heights and less confluence out ahead. 0z and 6z ECMWF track the 850mb low to the eastern Great Lakes before the coastal reflection takes over off of the ME coast. 

Yeah that’s why I’d want to see more of a coastal to keep the moisture going vs blowing it to the SW.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I'm not really worried about the initial low, but rather any redevelopment being over our heads. I'd like to see that phased 500 evolution drag more east or south vs over our heads. 

Yeah a strong initial low

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, nbweather said:

Realistically, how far north can this come? Impressive trend for increasing heights and less confluence out ahead. 0z and 6z ECMWF track the 850mb low to the eastern Great Lakes before the coastal reflection takes over off of the ME coast. 

It could prob come far enough north to cause mixing in SNE but I don’t think this could ever become a true cutter with that type of confluence to the north and northeast. 
 

You have blocking in the Atlantic side albeit not excessive, but that puts a cap on this…add in the fact that it’s a true arctic airmass, that also plays a role  

 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, nbweather said:

Realistically, how far north can this come? Impressive trend for increasing heights and less confluence out ahead. 0z and 6z ECMWF track the 850mb low to the eastern Great Lakes before the coastal reflection takes over off of the ME coast. 

There’s really nothing to suppress the downstream flow anymore over our region ahead of the system. I think if we could tuck that PV lobe a little more SW we could amplify it a little more and get that trough tilting negative. But the vortmax is already  plowing through LI sound on the 6z euro. 

[dendrite]

And to Will’s point…when I said “nothing to suppress it” I wasn’t implying that a cutter was an option. Just that there’s technically room to go more north.

[TheMainer]

18 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Getting more members further north on the 06Z EPS.

I'm hoping for a few more ticks here to get us in on the goods, but I'd be doing backflips for 6 inches. Currently all guidance has the 45th parallel QPF hole right over my head but much more solid 50 miles each side of us.

[nbweather]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

And to Will’s point…when I said “nothing to suppress it” I wasn’t implying that a cutter was an option. Just that there’s technically room to go more north.

While a very different setup, the trend for the storm around ~Jan 15 was west/north in quick succession, and the heaviest snows still ended up N/W of where most models had it in the Lakes. 

[Kitz Craver]

Ehhh, thread time?

[gonegalt]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Becker or Yeltsin?

Badenov.

[ineedsnow]

Sunday

A chance of snow after 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 13. North wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday Night

A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 4. North wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday

A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 18. North wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Ehhh, thread time?

12Z runs

[CoastalWx]

Looks like Nam shoved the snow NoP tonight.

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If there is lag that implies more of an impact bc it's moving out of the MC.

Not sure what this means?

The lag of the MJO is 7 to 10 days.  just go with that

[MuddyWx]

Pats in the AFC championship with a snowstorm to track with big potential.. we're back

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like Nam shoved the snow NoP tonight.

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

EC AIFS saying “what cold” in the east with all that cold to back into in the central conus.

 

wow.

Cold sent back to where it belongs. 

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like Nam shoved the snow NoP tonight.

Interesting how the HRRR is a bit aggressive with some snow squalls tomorrow. Not sure we have enough moisture to generate anything but the environment is conducive so if anything were to pop they could be quite hefty with maybe even some lightning 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

12K was well north. 3K better but looked a tick north.

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Probably should be noted that a high amplitude 7 to 8 MJO progression in late January around the time of a strong shortwave is the thing forecasting nightmares are made of.

I do believe the north trend is not over.  I am not a negative nancy either.  Watching these things develop for the past 20 years…it just happens and can happen right up to the last minute.  I’m thinking taint and disappointing ratios right now is what to be concerned with.  Not rain/FR yet.  

more of a gut call on my part - this isn’t my first rodeo and map you showed can’t be ruled out.  I want it to be wrong.  

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

12K was well north. 3K better but looked a tick north.

We take the NAM here

[Prismshine Productions]

Jeezum crow, low of -6F 
wasn’t expecting that.

I got down to 1.8, absolutely frigid

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully Reggie is right. 

[ineedsnow]

3k is 3 or so here even better

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure what this means?

The lag of the MJO is 7 to 10 days.  just go with that

Maritime Continent.  Lag of 7-10 days from when the storm hits is phase 6, so I don't see how that supports your position that the N trend is unrelated. It was amplified in phase 6 minus 7-10 days from storm impact.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, okay ... this is not a remarkable low pressure system that is by virtue of source, toting a PWAT anomaly.  It is what it is... but as it's rapidly moving and gaining latitude ( as is, in recent guidance - ), there quite a front loaded isentropic snow wall/dump.  If you look closely without the dopa fixation clouding judgement haha, you'll notice that the QPF field is actually weakening as this gets higher than NYC.  Support runs off and the isentropic lift weakens when that happens, and we're left with weak total cyclone parametrics lingering light to moderate snows...  In total, this can perform prolifically above the climo for typical "1000 mb machinery" because of all this.

Two things are true in deterministic effort here.  One, what I just said.  Two, model tendencies to attenuate off mid range events as they come into nearer terms.   These two aspects are sort of competing with this 26/27 system.  This is more of a philosophical approach here.  

The other thing that should be considered is that this whole mess is large, but is moving so fast - that will limit some... but, I think the more important implication of that speed is that it is exposing a problem of too much gradient in the field/which necessarily increases velocities everywhere.  That is a "built in" negative interference for phasing.   ...It's just supplying an argument to limit any potential of slowing this down.

[tamarack]

14 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nice! 

Yeah...so Tam' and I were just musing how 'don't assume just because a low pressure looks weak -'     But yeah, we can probably see a similarity where most of these bigger busts of lore were associated with presumably weak systems.  Really all that is needed is one of the metrics to be huge and the storm in question can goes crazy production off that one factor.  Superb DGZ like you were saying for example, in a marginal situation = over-performance.

Then there was Dec 9-11 1992.   zomb

My favorite bust, April 1982, is one that didn't fit the weak pressure - don't know the mb but something produced the gusts to near 60 in northern Maine.  We heard about the blizzard conditions in NYC at game time at Yankee Stadium on 4/6, but the storm was progged for OTS.  Afternoon forecast from CAR was cloudy, windy 20s.  The evening revision added "flurries".  At 9 PM when I went out to reset the max/min I noted the prominent ring around the moon and thought "I wonder . . ." 
Woke up about 2 AM and the view outside had that 'thick' gray texture of middle-of-night S+.  CAR recorded 26.3" from that storm.  My guess at our place was 17" but with the gales, who knows.  High temp on 4/7 was 17 but the stake level actually dropped from 27" to 26" - it was in a wind-scoured valley between drifts about 4 feet taller.  Our little black Chevette was almost totally buried; only a palm-sized patch was visible.

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, okay ... this is not a remarkable low pressure system that is by virtue of source, toting a PWAT anomaly.  It is what it is... but as it's rapidly moving and gaining latitude ( as is, in recent guidance - ), there quite a front loaded isentropic snow wall/dump.  If you look closely without the dopa fixation clouding judgement, you'll notice that the QPF field is actually weakening as this gets higher than NYC.  Support runs off and the isentropic lift weakens when that happens, and we're left with weak total cyclone parametrics lingering light to moderate snows...  In total, this can perform prolifically above the climo for typical "1000 mb machinery" because of all this.

To things are true in deterministic effort here.  One, what I just said.  Two, model tendencies to attenuate off mid range events as they come into nearer terms.   These two aspects are sort of competing with this 26/27 system.  This is more of a philosophical approach here.  

The other thing that should be considered is that this whole mess is large, but is moving so fast - that will limit some... but, I think the more important implication of that speed is that it is exposing a problem of too much gradient in the field/which necessarily increases velocities everywhere.  That is a "built in" negative interference for phasing.   ...It's just supplying an argument to limit any potential of slowing this down.

So your saying there's a chance

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maritime Continent.  Lag of 7-10 days from when the storm hits is phase 6, so I don't see how that supports your position that the N trend is unrelated. It was amplified in phase 6 minus 7-10 days from storm impact.

There is no direct linear forcing ...

the MJO produces a latent heat flux which disperses down stream, and that is adds to ridging ... troughing ..etc.  That whole process, processes out any direct causality, and leaves it to vestigial ( ie. modulation, not a forcer) influence.  

That's all I'm saying.  And it is true. 

I also did not say that.    I said "I'm not sure I'm following..." in this case the context;  I was just trying to remind people that the MJO does not set tables.