January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Sey-Mour Snow]

@WinterWolf Euro is around 4am start time ... 

[mahk_webstah]

-8.  I wonder if we get that little drop and temperature just as the sun starts to come up. Coldest  morning of the winter. So far but probably not for long.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Coke streamers for Scooter on that one.  

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Coke streamers for Scooter on that one.  

All joking aside there’s gonna be good enhancement on the coast with such a frigid airmass in place. 

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The huge shift of mid levels on the GEFS in like 4 runs has me shook.

My take is we are having major head fakes given the MJO progression uncertainty as 7 is AN in the east with +NAO tendency, but 8 is sig BN with -NAO tendency. The guidance has been waffling on the progression for days.

First was sitting in 7; then quick progression to 8; now I see a split— some showing sticking in 7, others quick to 8…

The crazy part is if we do settle in 7, I believe this continues further north.

I’ll make a call later this morning…

Should have enough data to see which way this will break.

 

WPC also has the caution flags, but the consensus in the models in this trend, and in the ensembles as well is pretty convincing. But as you’ve said a couple days ago, this could trend back south.

but it also seems that the structure of the storm is changing and that the strong over running pushes what creates a big mid Atlantic snow and then a secondary development gives the New England snow.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Coke streamers for Scooter on that one.  

What's best about this is we'd get Scott to stop whining!

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

All joking aside there’s gonna be good enhancement on the coast with such a frigid airmass in place. 

Yeah, that easterly fetch will definitely up the ante.

[Spanks45]

-6.2⁰, coldest in has been at my location in 5 years.....

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, CT Rain said:

What's best about this is we'd get Scott to stop whining!

Well, yeah, but his whining is much less annoying than most whining.

[mahk_webstah]

I know we have to discuss what’s right in front of us, but with the potential for later next week there could be a corridor that maxes is out on both storms. Maybe something like Philly to Boston or maybe just Philly to New York.

snow up to thy knickers 

[Modfan2]

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

Willing to bet this bombs out near Long Island and buries the region in feet of snow. Model trend is baby steps towards that end result. If this drops to 980 instead of 998, look out.

Still plenty of time for this to move south again as well; models have been less than stellar in the mid range with recent events. I am preparing for 12+ or a low end advisory event. Will feel better on a solution when we get to Saturday 

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

WPC also has the caution flags, but the consensus in the models in this trend, and in the ensembles as well is pretty convincing. But as you’ve said a couple days ago, this could trend back south.

but it also seems that the structure of the storm is changing and that the strong over running pushes what creates a big mid Atlantic snow and then a secondary development gives the New England snow.

That primary holding on in Ontario on the EC AIFS is looking  MJO 7 and can definitely get a lot warmer from there if legit.

Pretty crazy…

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, jbenedet said:

That primary holding on in Ontario on the EC AIFS is looking MJO ish and can definitely get a lot warmer from there if legit.

Pretty crazy…

This week is an incredible test of these various model suites and AI

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

What's best about this is we'd get Scott to stop whining!

Getting his mojo back after Jan 18-19. He was put through the wringer the last 4 years. 

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

-8.  I wonder if we get that little drop and temperature just as the sun starts to come up. Coldest  morning of the winter. So far but probably not for long.

I think you already did. You may be the coldest in the county. Is that unshielded?

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Getting his mojo back after Jan 18-19. He was put through the wringer the last 4 years. 

The appreciation level will be through the roof if this can deliver. 

[BrianW]

What a winter for BDR. Wunderground has 12 inches and days and days of snow and cold..

[jbenedet]

This is MJO phase 7. Just need surface temps to respond in kind.
 

We stick a +NAO here and no stopping the mid level height build in the east.

The EC AIFS also has the main show trending to the trailing shortwave which is also when our 1040 surface high is yielding…

This could get a lot warmer.

 

Nuts.

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

@WinterWolf Euro is around 4am start time ... 

Thanks pal. still think that’s awfully early. But we’ll see. Traveling back from N Maine that morning…so hoping for a little later start.  

[Masswx]

Im liking these trends 

[The 4 Seasons]

Just a side note but as im working on this season to date snowfall map southeastern Essex county has the least amount of snow anywhere in Southern New England, thats including the cape and islands. That is insane for late Jan. Massive snow hole there, Rays in NWrn Essex so that area is fine around 15-17" but around Rockport to Beverly to Marblehead they are sub 10".

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, vortex95 said:

It is?  00z ECMWF gives 14" 10:1 to DC, while much of SNE only 5-10"?  Not good enough for many!

The dreaded 700 dry slot makes it presence know and fragments the event.  Not what CoastalWx wants to see!

And the UKMET supports the ECMWF.

The ECMWF has a solid 1040 mb high over BTV at 102 hr, and it still "loses," so to speak.  You now have a very strong 500 system, actually cut off over the Upper MS Valley, and swings from positive to negative tilt quickly, but while moving E over srn Ontario and Quebec.  This is not good overall for a focused and intense coastal low.

So usually the coastal low takes over once forms, but not in this case.  It's becomes one of those wishy-washy things when it can't decide which sfc low (primary or secondary) takes over, so you get something less than stellar.  Not a smooth event for sure, and inconsistent S+ areas.

This is one of oddest evolutions of a East Coast storm I have ever seen, and we went from a suppressed non-event to this?  What else is going to change since we are still just over 3 days from the event starting in New England?

 

Boris, I kind of feel as though that evolution is akin to an inverted trough in that while it is not physically implausible to be the final outcome, it's more likely to a provisional solution as the model attempts to reconcile previous depictions of the evolution with what will actually happen.

[Go Kart Mozart]

31 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

We haven't given up, I think after 12z today it's cool to start one ..

You've been all over this Sey-Mour, I nominate you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think this is still in flux, but I won't begin my deep dive until tomorrow.

[jbenedet]

The mid level height look is completely different from 36 hours ago on major guidance. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

You've been all over this Sey-Mour, I nominate you.

He has, but to TBH, it's a pretty different landscape from what his looked like 2 days ago.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

The mid level height look is completely different from 36 hours ago on major guidance. 

Get outta my head.

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He has, but to TBH, it's a pretty different landscape from what this looked like 2 days ago.

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He has, but to TBH, it's a pretty different landscape from what his looked like 2 days ago.

Right up a nice synopsis when you can and LFG! 

[qg_omega]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This is MJO phase 7. Just need surface temps to respond in kind.
 

We stick a +NAO here and no stopping the mid level height build in the east.

The EC AIFS also has the main show trending to the trailing shortwave which is also when our 1040 surface high is yielding…

This could get a lot warmer.

 

Nuts.

You went from congrats VA to this in a day? lol

[Kitz Craver]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This is MJO phase 7. Just need surface temps to respond in kind.
 

We stick a +NAO here and no stopping the mid level height build in the east.

The EC AIFS also has the main show trending to the trailing shortwave which is also when our 1040 surface high is yielding…

This could get a lot warmer.

 

Nuts.

From absolutely no chance due to confluence yesterday to amping and too warm today. Got it.