January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah…there’s lot of freezing fog in the valleys and at high elevation making rime ice. Freak and MWN post a lot of epic rime pics. Obviously that’s all supercooled droplets needing a cold surface to freeze/deposit on.

I remember Fort Kent Will posting some good true IC pics (maybe vids) awhile back when he still lived up there.

We can be riding along and you can see there's precip up ahead falling and the next thing you know the shield is icing over.

[ineedsnow]

Ya this is going to be good

[ORH_wxman]

This could be a good hit this run 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Told you guys last week this 18-19th deal was the one to watch-

[MJO812]

Here it comes

[dendrite]

Boom goes the dynamite that run

[CoastalWx]

Oh boy oh boy oh boy 

[dryslot]

GFS went boom

[MJO812]

SNE

[ineedsnow]

Wow 

[weatherwiz]

Haven't seen a 500 evolution like this in a while it feels like

[dendrite]

Some stratosphere for the Cape at the end.

[DavisStraight]

15 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Just got in from a walk---felt great at 46*.  Solid snow-cover will be taking a beating today/tomorrow.

I was up in Gray yesterday, still a good snow cover, 4-5 inches.

[40/70 Benchmark]

See...tilt that PNA ridge negatively instead of positively and everything congeals faster and more proficiently near the coast.

[ariof]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's an interesting psycho-babble thing ... it is.  I mean, it's like that comedy bit by Louis C.K. where he outlines a flight and a passenger, never having been exposed to this technology whereby he can access his iphone while in flight, throws shade and criticizes the airline and attendants because 10 minutes into usage a couple internet pages 404 errored.  "This sucks!   This is an outrage! This is total bullshit.."   10 min ago, this passenger had zero awareness they could access the internet, from their iphone, while sitting in a chair, at 30 thousand feet, moving 500 mph ...   Louis goes on to muse.  Absolutely fucking hilarious as he exposes these entitled oblivion perspectives put on by this scowl-faced entitled person in square-mouthed rage...

But something similar happens with this technology in modeling. For some reason, folks tend to  less respectful, acting in a kind of indignant entitlement to the advantages and then criticizing it all without a realistic perspective.  

Technology and eases that it provides ... it tends to cancel humility. 

Personally ... the models are hugely improved ( actually ) compared to 20 years ago.  However, there are CC related changes - also - that I suspect are relatively new in the history of the modeling tech, and there's some discovery there/user experience-related.  We always used to know/have a feel for how things would outcome, based upon history of performance ...  Those histories are less reliable, because the patterns are behaving differently - even if subtle and idiosyncratically, this appears to have a disproportionately larger impact on user experience, because those expected behaviors are not qualifying as well.

This gives a faux impression of models sucking... heh.  It's really more that the models are improving, and are being particularly challenged at the same time.  But the users are suffering some 'chair at 30 k feet/500 mph' oblivion, too

And a larger point: you're flying at 500 mph through the air in a tin can for pennies on the dollar compared with what it has ever cost to travel. A lot of people's grandparents immigrated in steerage (if they were lucky, too many people's ancestors were chained up in the bottom of a ship), which was a week or more belowdecks on a ship for most of their life savings to cross an ocean and now people complain that in the summer a roundtrip airfare might cost a couple of days' salary and they might have to change planes in Newark.

A number of years ago I was flying back from Chicago and there was wx; basically a line of TSRA from YUL to ATL, and the entire East Coast was hosed (the first dozen-or-so pages of this thread). The guy before me in line waiting to get rebooked after our flight was canceled screamed at the gate agent about how horrible she and her airline were and how he couldn't believe what terrible service they had, etc, rather than, you know, appreciating that he was going to get to New York in two hours from Chicago most of the time, and sometimes wx dictated that it might take longer. Like, dude, your grandfather would have been waiting for an overnight train, and paid dearly for it.

He stormed off, she was waiting for her computer to update and I apologized for my fellow passengers. "It's okay, he's in a middle seat tomorrow afternoon." Then I got my boarding pass for a first class seat the next morning.

But anyway, we have a cognitive bias towards remembering outliers. We remember the hits, but we don't remember all the misses. Just because we're frustrated that we haven't shoveled a bunch of 240h modeled snow doesn't mean we've always had 240h model snow to shovel.

[dryslot]

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, it's not like the potential went unrealized on a hemispheric scale...

Perhaps one day ... there will be a weather modification grid invented when Quantum particle/wave physics gets so advanced they realize, okay ... we cannot predict the Heisenburg Uncertainty principle and the spontaneous emergence of forces in the natural "organic" cause-and-effect reality out in time, BUT... we can compensate by imposing our own.  I.e., controlling the day 10 chart as opposed to hitting a probabilistic limiations at 73.4%   ( ( I'm taking sci fi licence at the moment ...)

Frankly, what a dystopian future that would be.   Not having the magic of uncertainty - it's just magic and be light or dark.   

[CoastalWx]

Plenty of time to ram that into CT

[ineedsnow]

There's our Blizzard

[dryslot]

What a nuke, 969mb in the GOM.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, ariof said:

And a larger point: you're flying at 500 mph through the air in a tin can for pennies on the dollar compared with what it has ever cost to travel. A lot of people's grandparents immigrated in steerage (if they were lucky, too many people's ancestors were chained up in the bottom of a ship), which was a week or more belowdecks on a ship for most of their life savings to cross an ocean and now people complain that in the summer a roundtrip airfare might cost a couple of days' salary and they might have to change planes in Newark.

A number of years ago I was flying back from Chicago and there was wx; basically a line of TSRA from YUL to ATL, and the entire East Coast was hosed (the first dozen-or-so pages of this thread). The guy before me in line waiting to get rebooked after our flight was canceled screamed at the gate agent about how horrible she and her airline were and how he couldn't believe what terrible service they had, etc, rather than, you know, appreciating that he was going to get to New York in two hours from Chicago most of the time, and sometimes wx dictated that it might take longer. Like, dude, your grandfather would have been waiting for an overnight train, and paid dearly for it.

He stormed off, she was waiting for her computer to update and I apologized for my fellow passengers. "It's okay, he's in a middle seat tomorrow afternoon." Then I got my boarding pass for a first class seat the next morning.

But anyway, we have a cognitive bias towards remembering outliers. We remember the hits, but we don't remember all the misses. Just because we're frustrated that we haven't shoveled a bunch of 240h modeled snow doesn't mean we've always had 240h model snow to shovel.

Ha, true

OH yeah ... we can peel this onion of presumptive fallacy of entitlements down many layers.

 

[dryslot]

Looks nice but we're going to need the Euro to start trending towards the GFS to believe it.

[Damage In Tolland]

Ok I am back on board. Snowy Saturday night, snowy MLK

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Haven't seen a 500 evolution like this in a while it feels like

Snow from Georgia to Maine. We love to see it.

 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Plenty of time to ram that into CT

Euro will have cirrus, but I’ll take the dopamine hit right now. 

In all seriousness…starting to bite a bit…

[MVOyster]

The Hand of James is pushing this one west ...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Snow from Georgia to Maine. We love to see it.

 

Euro will have cirrus, but I’ll take the dopamine hit right now. 

In all seriousness…starting to bite a bit…

It's coming. Bite, and bite down hard.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Congrats bitchers and whiners in sema.

[CoastalWx]

Saturday looks like higher el perhaps. Kind of borderline.

[CoastalWx]

AI about the same as 6z. Definitely not like gfs op.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Saturday looks like higher el perhaps. Kind of borderline.

Hello