January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[The 4 Seasons]

AI GFS/ AI ENS both came W/NW for the Sun 18th wave fwiw

[The 4 Seasons]

I never could have guessed this would happen, i thought it was 100% lock!

The vanishing act of clown range op runs, who could have guessed

[MJO812]

Ukie !

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

15 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I never could have guessed this would happen, i thought it was 100% lock!

The vanishing act of clown range op runs, who could have guessed

That is pretty funny though. Not even a step down, just gone

[The 4 Seasons]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie !

Euro should be good then, hopefully

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Euro should be good then, hopefully

Guessing no, since posts went "poof" faster than the long range PD II.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Guessing no since posts went "poof" faster than thr long range PD II.

euro bad and icon bad too now. this storm might not happen at all

[Modfan2]

41F and balmy for this time of year

[CoastalWx]

6z gfs is several inches for MLK and 00z euro grazes. Definitely one to watch. 

[CoastalWx]

Euro AI a few inches too.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

6z gfs is several inches for MLK and 00z euro grazes. Definitely one to watch. 

Ya that's been the one to watch.. might get a bit in the interior Saturday.. some models also starting to show that..

[UnitedWx]

It's definitely inched closer the last several runs. Can the trend continue?...

[CoastalWx]

Still a nice overrunning signal in the extended 

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

It's definitely inched closer the last several runs. Can the trend continue?...

We can hope.. we need this!

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

It's definitely inched closer the last several runs. Can the trend continue?...

Yeah still could go poof but it’s been inching west 

[dendrite]

I like that 1045 high with yore Carolina CAD. 

[mahk_webstah]

8 hours ago, dendrite said:

Eagles? 

I was in Philly for that. It was miserable. And I came home to an ugly old snow pack. The good news is,It will snow more and I don’t have to experience of watching that team play.  They weren’t fun this year.

[Damage In Tolland]

I’m not buying. We don’t get fooled again 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m not buying. We don’t get fooled again 

Yup, NOT with GFS leading the way.. Wait til the real models show a hit .. EPS is about a 5-15% probability of plowable for Eastern New England, pretty low odds but still day 5 so time to trend. 

[Snowcrazed71]

Oof... The waiting game is rough. Hopefully it will yield some good stuff as we move past next week and into the following weekend.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Large precip signal still on ensembles for next weekend as Scott said.. .Just watching ensembles for now, hopefully we get more hits showing up on ops as we get closer.. This period still could be snow/rain/ice for New England .. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Lastly all ensembles are ideal post that overrunning threat next weekend.. 

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Lastly all ensembles are ideal post that overrunning threat next weekend.. 

Could be a situation where something big shows up on models, then gets iffy, then slowly comes back.  Happens a lot.

[UnitedWx]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m not buying. We don’t get fooled again 

Totally. We need to see lots more before there's really any interest

[Chrisrotary12]

12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Large precip signal still on ensembles for next weekend as Scott said.. .Just watching ensembles for now, hopefully we get more hits showing up on ops as we get closer.. This period still could be snow/rain/ice for New England .. 

Insert kicking the can picture

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Insert kicking the can picture

Well after the fake -NAO tease for early Jan .. We all said Jan 15th period was possible but unlikely, the first real threats would show up Jan-18 on beyond .. It's still the case even though Jan 18 is still very low probs and next week looks boring for now.. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6z update on Sunday/Monday threat .. GFS NW moderate hit for ENE, EURO ticked SE, AIFS NW - light to moderate hit ENE

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

6z update on Sunday/Monday threat .. GFS NW moderate hit for ENE, EURO ticked SE, AIFS NW - light to moderate hit ENE

I saw the gfs and it was somewhat interesting, but euro sliding SE makes me think it’s all a dream, per usual 

[Kitz Craver]

Probably just a classic GFS head fake 

[ORH_wxman]

At least the skynets are pretty interested this time. They had no interest in the 1/15 threat.