January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Spanks45]

Currently -1.7⁰, finally made it below zero....I'm ok with a January thaw now with hopefully snow mid to late month. In a few short weeks I will be starting some seeds for the coming garden season.

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Pattern looks like garbage until mid month.

So much for that short last week about East Coast storminess and blocking and snowstorms up and down the eastern seaboard that I saw a few days ago on YouTube 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

So much for that short last week about East Coast storminess and blocking and snowstorms up and down the eastern seaboard that I saw a few days ago on YouTube 

Just calling it as I see it. Looks like poopie until mid month or so. Obviously a little better up in NNE. 

[qg_omega]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just calling it as I see it. Looks like poopie until mid month or so. Obviously a little better up in NNE. 

Looks great for NNE

[Damage In Tolland]

30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GL

NWS?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

It's really just that one bad cutter Friday/Saturday.. As CNE/NNE are in the game for mid week.  Jan 11-17 look like this on pretty much all ensembles, so much more confidence than the fake -NAO modeled last week .. I'm optimistic on this look, hoping for a little coastal action, but we will see if this look actually plays out. 

[Krs4Lfe]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks cool to me 

I’ll probably blow torch for a week, especially here closer to the mid Atlantic. The models are generally honing in on a pattern change around the 11th or the 12th but obviously we should not expect any immediate chances for snow because the pattern change will have to set in first before the chances actually come. Hopefully that pattern changes here to stay because with a properly timed SW during cold anomalies in January, which is already peak Climo, we could do very well. 

[Krs4Lfe]

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It's really just that one bad cutter Friday/Saturday.. As CNE/NNE are in the game for mid week.  Jan 11-17 look like this on pretty much all ensembles, so much more confidence than the fake -NAO modeled last week .. I'm optimistic on this look, hoping for a little coastal action, but we will see if this look actually plays out. 

Ideally, you would want the ridge closer towards Idaho and Utah, which would force deeper anomalies closer to the east coast as opposed to a deeper trough in the Great Lakes, which can usually signal more clippers and a fast northern stream. Either way it’s a lot better than what will be in place next week and it doesn’t seem to be being pushed back at all.

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NWS?

What’s your reasoning for 2? 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

What’s your reasoning for 2? 

Tonight really dried up, (never looked impressive but it's worse now) looks like if Kevin is lucky he can get a half inch in the Tolland Hills, coating for everyone else .. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

What’s your reasoning for 2? 

I don’t think many will see 2”.. but ORH hills or maybe Se MA with a little ocean influx 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[dendrite]

31 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It's really just that one bad cutter Friday/Saturday.. As CNE/NNE are in the game for mid week.  Jan 11-17 look like this on pretty much all ensembles, so much more confidence than the fake -NAO modeled last week .. I'm optimistic on this look, hoping for a little coastal action, but we will see if this look actually plays out. 

GEFS, EPS, GEPS all start having that +TNH look toward d15…SE ridge, ridge off west coast, lower heights SW US and up toward Hudson Bay. We’d play with fire with that, but I’d roll with my chances in the interior for a higher QPF SWFE.

[Kitz Craver]

GEPS really flexing that SE ridge. That look has some risk

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Grab 1-2” tonight, enjoy a snowy morning tomorrow and then see where the week takes us. 

Teeny weenie grab. AIT, it’s meh.

[codfishsnowman]

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just calling it as I see it. Looks like poopie until mid month or so. Obviously a little better up in NNE. 

I think you and Will are rock star caliber. I have over 15 years on this board and I think you two are about the best in this forum. Wiz is following right in your footsteps and for two someones who technically aren't mets Steve and Ray know SNE weather like the back of their hands and are rarely wrong. It really is a privilege to belong to this forum. I have been fascinated by weather since I was a kid but I just didn't have the accumen for the math and science.

[Kitz Craver]

Heavy, heavy traces 

[HoarfrostHubb]

When I was up around 5:30 to let the dog out, we had some flakes. 
 

might be all we get this upcoming week

[WinterWolf]

Please…I hope nothing falls here tonight. Washed the truck yesterday, and don’t need any more slop for a week now with the thaw coming.  We reshuffle for after the 11th-12th.  

[Go Kart Mozart]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Please…I hope nothing falls here tonight. Washed the truck yesterday, and don’t need any more slop for a week now with the thaw coming.  We reshuffle for after the 11th-12th.  

Where is WinterWolf and what have you done with him?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

46 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

GEPS really flexing that SE ridge. That look has some risk

It’s not a bad look though for us , any colder down south on that look and we’d be cold and dry, we need some SE ridge to get some action. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Where is WinterWolf and what have you done with him?

Lol…good one Go Kart.  For a half inch..I’ll pass on this one.  

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It's really just that one bad cutter Friday/Saturday.. As CNE/NNE are in the game for mid week.  Jan 11-17 look like this on pretty much all ensembles, so much more confidence than the fake -NAO modeled last week .. I'm optimistic on this look, hoping for a little coastal action, but we will see if this look actually plays out. 

I actually like the WAR location there. We had that frequently for a few years in the 2016-2018 timeframe which brought some storms back from the dead that were out to sea. The one worry is the epo ridge retrogrades west with time which can introduce more cutter potential. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

GEFS, EPS, GEPS all start having that +TNH look toward d15…SE ridge, ridge off west coast, lower heights SW US and up toward Hudson Bay. We’d play with fire with that, but I’d roll with my chances in the interior for a higher QPF SWFE.

After lots of clippers and moose fart upslope events that drop coatings everywhere that isn’t on the mountain spine, a lot of us will roll the dice for some meatier events that carry a cutter risk. Esp going into heart of coldest climo. 
 

[dendrite]

52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

After lots of clippers and moose fart upslope events that drop coatings everywhere that isn’t on the mountain spine, a lot of us will roll the dice for some meatier events that carry a cutter risk. Esp going into heart of coldest climo. 
 

Yup. Like you’ve always said…our snowfall in deep winter correlates better to QPF than temps (at least inland). 

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It's really just that one bad cutter Friday/Saturday.. As CNE/NNE are in the game for mid week.  Jan 11-17 look like this on pretty much all ensembles, so much more confidence than the fake -NAO modeled last week .. I'm optimistic on this look, hoping for a little coastal action, but we will see if this look actually plays out. 

That’s a better look vs EPS which is what  I was going on. 

[CoastalWx]

I’d much rather that look vs the +TNH or whatever it’s called that’s done nothing recent when we did have it. 

[MJO812]

[tamarack]

15 hours ago, tavwtby said:

historically, our best timeframe for hecs, or just coastal storms in general, has been the last couple weeks of January into the first couple weeks of February...and then again around the ides of March...if we can squeeze out some bonus snows before and after that period and hope for a nice bomb in between, we can maybe reach climo avg for the first time in years in SNE...and elsewhere for that matter... here's to wishcasting for the new year! also, another year without a storm on my birthday tomorrow so I digress.

Only one site and farther north, but here's the season-progressive chronological sequence for our biggest (15"+) snowfalls, 18 of them in 27 winters.  (But only 2 in the past 7.)
Only 4 have met blizzard conditions here, marked by *. 
Not including 25-26, snowfall thru Jan 31 has averaged 49.2", Feb 1 forward is 49.3", but 72% of the biggies have come in the 2nd half.
24.0"   12/6-7/2003 *
22.0"   12/16-18/2022
15.5"    12/21-22/2008 *
21.0"   12/29-30/2016
20.0"    1/27-28/2015 *
17.0"    2/5-6/2001
21.0"   2/10-11/2005  (thunder)
21.0"   2/12-13/2017
15.5"   2/14-15/2007
24.5"  2/22-23/2009
19.9"   3/7-9/2018
16.5"   3/13-14/2018
15.5"   3/14-15/2017 *
16.0"   3/22-23/2001
22.0"   3/23-24/2024
19.0"   3/30-31/2001
15.1"    4/1-2/2011
18.5"   4/4-5/2007

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eat shit Webb