January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

The -PNA is fading but so is the -NAO…Not seeing anyone pointing out the latter…

I don’t know why these phases have been in sych in recent years but it continues…

As for the CPC forecast beyond day 10, I think the +AN risk is greatest along the east coast losing the -NAO, and with the west coast ridge axis being west of Washington state…

It’s a long wave pattern where upstate  NY into northern VT can do very well, snowfall wise. The whites of NH into northern Maine as well…latitudinal Gradient vibes returning to New England. This means a poor pattern for sig snowfall chances in the major metros from Philly to Portland.

Absolutely makes sense...the early January -NAO was always puzzling to me and never fit with my expectation. There has been a pretty strong correlation between -NAO/-PNA and +NAO/PNA for the past 20 years or so, which what I expected to bare out with the emergence of +PNA and a strengthening PV that would culminate in an episode of +TNH beyond mid-month. The corrections warmer better align with my preseason thoughts, as well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

looks like you got a foot from the jan 2-3 blizzard but just missed the 20-24" big dog numbers in Haverhill and Boxford. still a huge event regardless

the jan 21-22 was a coastal SNE special

and maybe 4-6 on Jan 18th

 

It was a "good", solid season...if unspectacular that left plenty on the table.

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s not lot of evidence we’re going to stay near normal at least for the 1/7-1/11 period. People can quibble on the magnitude of the warmth but it’s going to be AN.
 

After that is a little dicier. There’s a big shift going on in the PAC. Looks like PV tries to get reestablished near Hudson Bay which would be a return to a colder pattern. The question is how quickly that happens. Could be in place by 1/12-13 or it could wait a week. Or something different could pop up on guidance. Seems to be pretty good consensus right now though on ensemble guidance.  

I should be a bit after mid month...I think 1/12 to 1/13 is a bit early.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think Pope has nailed it here TBH....same page with respect to first half of January...not great for coastal snowfall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

thats a bold guess

Not really....it's the favored outcome.

[dendrite]

47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s just strange to see Dendy on board Popes torch train of 50’s He usually sides to the the cooler side . The way this fall and winter have gone when guidance tries to go hot .. would be kind of foolish to think this won’t mute somewhat 

Strange to see you side with ACATT and going with 20s for highs

[Torch Tiger]

30 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I see our resident nonsense generator is running full tilt to kick off the new year.  

Winter isnt quickly moving along and folks are not happy about it?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

The -PNA is fading but so is the -NAO…Not seeing anyone pointing out the latter…

I don’t know why these phases have been in sych in recent years but it continues…

As for the CPC forecast beyond day 10, I think the +AN risk is greatest along the east coast losing the -NAO, and with the west coast ridge axis being west of Washington state…

It’s a long wave pattern where upstate  NY into northern VT can do very well, snowfall wise. The whites of NH into northern Maine as well…latitudinal Gradient vibes returning to New England. This means a poor pattern for sig snowfall chances in the major metros from Philly to Portland.

We talked about the -NAO being transient for 2 pages yesterday 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Looking at Tuesday next week for the potential of another clipper to come through the area. 06z GEFS has 24hr QPF mean >.25” for a broad area. May be a bit torch in southern areas but too soon to really delve too much more into. Potential is there for weak system to come through.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Happy New Year!
 

Dec 1 - Jan 7 should average -5 to -10 across the majority of New England. With pack regionwide and variable snow totals, some below some way above climo (125-150% around here). One of the best deep winter starts (cold snow and pack) overall in a long time. 

It was really nice having snow threats to track on the holidays, with snow falling for the ball drop. Looks like we have our January thaw for 5-10 days then we hope we reshuffle. 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Looking at Tuesday next week for the potential of another clipper to come through the area. 06z GEFS has 24hr QPF mean >.25” for a broad area. May be a bit torch in southern areas but too soon to really delve too much more into. Potential is there for weak system to come through.

Sunday night 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

We talked about the -NAO being transient for 2 pages yesterday 

What is it exactly that you and Kevin disagree with? Do me a favor....let me know how much snow you accumulate between now and January 15th and we'll readdress. It will be single-digits.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Sunday night 

Looks flaccid

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Looks flaccid

Might be but can see how it could drop an inch or two if it ramps a bit 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Looking at Tuesday next week for the potential of another clipper to come through the area. 06z GEFS has 24hr QPF mean >.25” for a broad area. May be a bit torch in southern areas but too soon to really delve too much more into. Potential is there for weak system to come through.

Yup...looks like we have room for maybe another 1-3" type event.

In fact, I am shocked the GFS does not have any QPF during the day Tuesday...has the look for hefty snow squalls with thunder/lightning...quite unstable look with a good shortwave rolling through. 

[weatherwiz]

I would much rather be in a position where the NAO is transitioning from more negative to less negative or to slightly positive then be in a consistently -NAO regime. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Jan 6 attempted a return in the operation GFS/12z   

Not in the same form as before, and in fact the contributing aspects are probably not even born of the same source considering the mangling that's taken place within the guidance cinemas over the last 3 or 4 days,... but, some sort of WAA snows get cooked up there, nonetheless.  

It's only 5.5 days away.   Fire up a thread!   ahha

[qg_omega]

10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Happy New Year!
 

Dec 1 - Jan 7 should average -5 to -10 across the majority of New England. With pack regionwide and variable snow totals, some below some way above climo (125-150% around here). One of the best deep winter starts (cold snow and pack) overall in a long time. 

It was really nice having snow threats to track on the holidays, with snow falling for the ball drop. Looks like we have our January thaw for 5-10 days then we hope we reshuffle. 

 

Deep winter with pack before we torch in the climatological heart of winter

[Baroclinic Zone]

Road trip to upstate NY for some epic LES coming? Could be some prolific totals in the Fulton area.

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Jan 6 attempted a return in the operation GFS/12z   

Not in the same form and in fact, contributing aspects are probably not even born of the same source considering the mangling that's taken place within the guidance cinemas over the last 3 or 4 days,... but, some sort of WAA snows get cooked up there, nonetheless.  

It's only 5.5 days away.   Fire up a thread!   ahha

Don’t tempt me John…

[Typhoon Tip]

actualy only 4half days

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Deep winter with pack before we torch in the climatological heart of winter

Happens every year. 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Road trip to upstate NY for some epic LES coming? Could be some prolific totals in the Fulton area.

My friend is trying to convince me to go.  We have not been back up there for snow in like 20 years.  The HREF probs show is mostly where you mention though the 12Z high res guidance models today now largely want to focus it more N of there til tomorrow which is a bit of a delay

[Sey-Mour Snow]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is it exactly that you and Kevin disagree with? Do me a favor....let me know how much snow you accumulate between now and January 15th and we'll readdress. It will be single-digits.

The cold first week in January.  There still could be two light snow threats as well this coming week. He had a post saying pretty much there is no cold in sight in January. I disagree, yes we can all agree on week 2. 

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Happens every year. 

I've been in a step back orbital perspective on matters as of late.   It's almost like these mid winter dildo smacks upside the head are really like taking a canonical January thaw, and stretching to 5 weeks. 

Almost symbolically...  but could be argued in more practical reality, too.   

I can't ...well, I'm not prepared at this time to say that's en route again, but we're staring down the barrel of a warm up that seems to be getting sturdier in the guidance, while planning ... perhaps "hoping" being more apropos, that it is prelude to a -EPO--> +PNA correction later on.  But having the last 9 or 10 seasons of fuck ups in mind isn't lending much confidence that all that will really sort out in our favor. 

In fact, the GFS out to 360+ hours is trying to skip the latter correction aspect - trying to.  I dunno, you tell me. 

I'm fighting the urge to bring up the January sputtering prediction I made back in September.   Admittedly, it was half glib at the time.  Sort  based upon (last decade of mid seasons)+(CC sarcasm)/2 ...   so doesn't really count as 'in the race' with other more constructive seasonal forecast ... LOL   no.  but still, what the fuck

I know I come off as heavy handed about y'all taking too much emotional/dopa hit reliance on this shit, but in all honesty, I don't want sit through the next 67 days of no reason to check in at all.  ha 

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The cold first week in January.  There still could be two light snow threats as well this coming week. He had a post saying pretty much there is no cold in sight in January. I disagree, yes we can all agree on week 2. 

I recall him say the pattern becomes problematic after the first week of January.

[kdxken]

Celebrate the Perihelion on Saturday and sunrise starts getting earlier. Back is creaking.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The cold first week in January.  There still could be two light snow threats as well this coming week. He had a post saying pretty much there is no cold in sight in January. I disagree, yes we can all agree on week 2. 

NAO may never fully go + for 1 and 2.. there’s 2-3 possible snow/ wintry threats thru day 10. I don’t agree of mid Jan being a torch at all 

[mahk_webstah]

20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

My friend is trying to convince me to go.  We have not been back up there for snow in like 20 years.  The HREF probs show is mostly where you mention though the 12Z high res guidance models today now largely want to focus it more N of there til tomorrow which is a bit of a delay

Some years ago, I did a three day weekend in Redfield at a resort for cross-country skiing called Salmon Hills. It was late season, but there was a a lot of snow on the ground and some good lake affect falling. Very fun and very wilderness feeling.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

although, Jan 2014 was fantastic for SNE

Biggest snowfall that month was 1.9" on 2-3, at temps 10-12 below zero.  Farther north, CAR got no snow but had their 2nd coldest daily max with -15/-28.

Just had a quick squall, visibility briefly under 100 yards.  It's letting up but might approach the forecast 0.5".