January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, anyone can wax poetic about they pattern all the want, I would take 1/7/2024 over anything this "great pattern" will offer up.

Most people here would probably take 2-3 storms that add up to 25” with long duration colder temps than a 19” storm that melts away in 4 days. But I can see those who just enjoy the storm picking the 19-spot. 
 

Obviously if we waste a good pattern with very little snow, we’d all take the 19 burger. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most people here would probably take 2-3 storms that add up to 25” with long duration colder temps than a 19” storm that melts away in 4 days. But I can see those who just enjoy the storm picking the 19-spot. 
 

Obviously if we waste a good pattern with very little snow, we’d all take the 19 burger. 

Something has to go right during one of these good patterns eventually....I think....

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Something has to go right during one of these good patterns eventually....I think....

Maybe the patterns only looked good on the surface…
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Maybe the patterns only looked good on the surface…
 

Maybe the Hadley Cell is insidiously swallowing us all whole.

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I’ll take my chances with this pattern.

Yup…me too.  Got 7.5” in that one above. Remember it well.  It was ok, but this last Fridays(12/26) was much better.  Ray JP’d so his ideas are different…so we can understand him liking that one. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe the Hadley Cell is insidiously stalling us all whole.

Funny how everywhere around SNE, and in every direction is doing just fine…tells ya all you need to know.
 

And this last Fridays storm brought a lot of us up to, or above average for December.  But not everybody of course. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most people here would probably take 2-3 storms that add up to 25” with long duration colder temps than a 19” storm that melts away in 4 days. But I can see those who just enjoy the storm picking the 19-spot. 
 

Obviously if we waste a good pattern with very little snow, we’d all take the 19 burger. 

Funny, but I was contemplating a similar question today.  What would people prefer, four 7" storms over twelve days, each 3 days apart, or one 28 incher?

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Funny, but I was contemplating a similar question today.  What would people prefer, four 7" storms over twelve days, each 3 days apart, or one 28 incher?

Depends...what does scooter get in my 28"er?

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Depends...what does scooter get in my 28"er?

29”

[CT Valley Snowman]

9 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Funny, but I was contemplating a similar question today.  What would people prefer, four 7" storms over twelve days, each 3 days apart, or one 28 incher?

Most I've ever experienced is around 24" a few times so I would go with the 28"

[SouthCoastMA]

I will always take the bigger storm. snow retention isn't my thing unless the depth has a chance to approach historic levels..which it rarely does 

[ORH_wxman]

For me, that bigger storm can win but it has to be pretty rare. Taking a 15” storm that melts in 3 days over a handful of 5-6” events with prolonged cold is an easy no for me. But if we’re talking a 30-burger over 3 foot-longs, sure…the 30-burger is pretty special. 

[WinterWolf]

They both have their pluses. 7” every 3 days, four times…that’d be real fun too watching it add up(snow on snow) every 3 days…with it being cold right through.  That could be real fun too.  I’ll take either one…whatever one Mother nature wanted to throw at the area. 

[CoastalWx]

Ray is the only person that would accept getting 12” if Salem NH got 30”, but lose his shit if I got 24” and he got 14”.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

29”

I'll take the crazy 7s

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Ray is the only person that would accept getting 12” if Salem NH got 30”, but lose his shit if I got 24” and he got 14”.  

No, that would leave me irate...

[WxWatcher007]

I mean I’m living it right now up here. I’ll take all the nickels and dimes with this level of cold over some big dog that only comes by once all winter. The mega events are nice, but I wouldn’t want to relive the 2015-16 season I had in DC with one blizzard, one minor event and that was it. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most people here would probably take 2-3 storms that add up to 25” with long duration colder temps than a 19” storm that melts away in 4 days. But I can see those who just enjoy the storm picking the 19-spot. 
 

Obviously if we waste a good pattern with very little snow, we’d all take the 19 burger. 

The good vibe that a multiple snowstorm stretch brings is hard to beat by one big one.

A 10-inch event, 5-inch event, and 10-inch event in an every 3rd day succession is a 7-10 day binge of winter.

Getting a big 20” event then nothing pales in terms of the overall mood/outlook.

[Typhoon Tip]

I’ve crossed over some kind of gestational changing of mentality on that stuff…
Yup, I guess I’m gettin’ old

I want a 72 inch never ever has happened before OD dopa menace hyperbolic storm so powerful that the Earth hiccups in its orbit about the sun… all around me where I only get two inches within a diameter of about oh … say 10 miles or so, so I can still get out and about and do what I need to do. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’ve crossed over some kind of gestational changing of mentality on that stuff…
Yup, I guess I’m gettin’ old

I want a 72 inch never ever has happened before OD dopa menace hyperbolic storm so powerful that the Earth hiccups in its orbit about the sun… all around me where I only get two inches within a diameter of about oh … say 10 miles or so, so I can still get out and about and do what I need to do. 

We’ve talked about this before, but there’s probably some perfect chain of events that produces a sub-950 bomb southeast of LI starting from relatively higher pressure….preceded by some sort of high-thermal gradient overrunning scenario that lasts 24+ hours before the slow moving shallow trough is injected with polar/arctic energy, deepens extremely rapidly, and produces 5-foot totals once you add the entire thing up. 
 

Yeah…1 in 500 years maybe? But it’s not zero. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’ve talked about this before, but there’s probably some perfect chain of events that produces a sub-950 bomb southeast of LI starting from relatively higher pressure….preceded by some sort of high-thermal gradient overrunning scenario that lasts 24+ hours before the slow moving shallow trough is injected with polar/arctic energy, deepens extremely rapidly, and produces 5-foot totals once you add the entire thing up. 
 

Yeah…1 in 500 years maybe? But it’s not zero. 

1888 for CT. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’ve talked about this before, but there’s probably some perfect chain of events that produces a sub-950 bomb southeast of LI starting from relatively higher pressure….preceded by some sort of high-thermal gradient overrunning scenario that lasts 24+ hours before the slow moving shallow trough is injected with polar/arctic energy, deepens extremely rapidly, and produces 5-foot totals once you add the entire thing up. 
 

Yeah…1 in 500 years maybe? But it’s not zero. 

Yeah… Show me that
 

Can you imagine the ecstatic fervency in this social media as that thing was congealing in the models?

L       O       L

It does remind me… I’ve had this conversation with other Mets. There’s always something that gets left on the table. Somehow someway, even the very best of the best. The GOATs are not even perfect. 
But … At some point you’re not noticing because everything else is just so overwhelming.  Probably like the blizzard of 78? Maybe 1888? Few other argumentative’s in there over the hundred yrs. They’re like above the 95th percentile without fucking up.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

1888 for CT. 

Incredible that 2013 even ended up in the same hallway as 1888.

I’ve always said the Mt. Rushmore storms of CT are 1888, 2013, 1978, and October 2011. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah… Show me that
 

Can you imagine the ecstatic fervency in this social media as that thing was congealing in the models?

L       O       L

It does remind me… I’ve had this conversation with other Mets. There’s always something that gets left on the table. Somehow someway, even the very best of the best. The GOATs are not even perfect. 
But … At some point you’re not noticing because everything else is just so overwhelming.  Probably like the blizzard of 78? Maybe 1888? Few other argumentative’s in there over the hundred yrs. They’re like above the 95th percentile without fucking up.

Right…there’s a reason they are like 1 in 50 or 1 in 100 year storms instead of 1 in 500

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah… Show me that
 

Can you imagine the ecstatic fervency in this social media as that thing was congealing in the models?

L       O       L

It does remind me… I’ve had this conversation with other Mets. There’s always something that gets left on the table. Somehow someway, even the very best of the best. The GOATs are not even perfect. 
But … At some point you’re not noticing because everything else is just so overwhelming.  Probably like the blizzard of 78? Maybe 1888? Few other argumentative’s in there over the hundred yrs. They’re like above the 95th percentile without fucking up.

Feb 2013 was supposed to last 6-12 hours longer, it never really stalled and looped like it was supposed to. Just imagine the totals.. woulda been 30-60” instead of 20-40”

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Feb 2013 was supposed to last 6-12 hours longer, it never really stalled and looped like it was supposed to. Just imagine the totals.. woulda been 30-60” instead of 20-40”

Or actually … suppose it did stall/loop, it might’ve occluded and I’ve seen rad shred really quickly when that happens - it probably would’ve folded in on itself unexpectedly fast and that would’ve been how it left something on the table  

 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Feb 2013 was supposed to last 6-12 hours longer, it never really stalled and looped like it was supposed to. Just imagine the totals.. woulda been 30-60” instead of 20-40”

Yup…it was a beast, but it failed to do that.
 

March 1888 was close to 60” in new Britain I believe(upper 50’s?), and it started as rain. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

00Z NAM looks like maybe an inch or two SE Mass Thursday 

[Fozz]

39 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Feb 2013 was supposed to last 6-12 hours longer, it never really stalled and looped like it was supposed to. Just imagine the totals.. woulda been 30-60” instead of 20-40”

Although I didn’t live in New England at the time, I actually stayed up here during the Feb 2013 storm, not so far from where I’m now located.

And I could’ve sworn the snow was supposed to last until midday, but I remember it ending early morning, maybe mid morning at the latest. Can’t complaint though, it was around 27” or so.

I think there’s a reason why Feb 1978 is considered one of a kind… you got 50” totals in northern RI.

That kind of thing just doesn’t happen in non-LES, non-alpine areas. I think March 2001 was also expected to do the loop between NJ and SNE and bring some astonishing totals to a few lucky spots.

[Boston Bulldog]

Both Feb 2013 and Jan 2015 were modeled to have some sort of stall and loop. While the stalls never materialized, even if they took place the 50” spots would be extremely localized. You’d need to maximize both the initial extreme banding (i.e what was over CT in Feb ‘13) and a CCB type element of the storm, and THEN cash in on the stall via some sort of deformation or decaying mid level banding training over a thin slice of longitude amid what would likely be a shredded occluded mess of a precip shield.

Like Will said, for a storm with more widespread biblical totals you’d need a predecessor phase of the event like the overrunnning he mentioned.