January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[WeatherGeek2025]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Any maps too post showing it ?

 

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Any maps too post showing it ?

All I care about now is a storm signal

[Krs4Lfe]

The snow showers and squalls from inland PA across New England are the real deal for through New Year’s Day. Heavier snow showers than usual and lake effect bands reaching farther inland than would normally result on the backside of a Great Lakes storm. Hopefully we can get some accumulation down here New Year’s Day but models have really backed off on that and it seems like a dried out frontal passage at best now 

[Wannabehippie]

7 hours ago, mob1 said:

This is probably the next period to highlight 

Another clipper type system?  Unless those get energized when they hit the coast, precip is going to be on the light side as they have no moisture to work with. From what I saw on the models southern jet is cut off from the northern one, so no sytems diving south to pick up GoM moisture, then coming up the coast for a wallop. 

[Wannabehippie]

42 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

 

The 9th? Are any other models or runs supporting this look yet?

[Franklin0529]

7 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

The 9th? Are any other models or runs supporting this look yet?

Yea the gefs has it cmc earlier an the euro AI it but it's offshore 

[MJO812]

Clipper

[EasternLI]

12 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

The 9th? Are any other models or runs supporting this look yet?

EPS has support for something 8-9th.

[Krs4Lfe]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Clipper

That’s the lowest level of QPF. Closer to Massachusetts cape that’s some more QPF and could be light snow. Probably just flurries here 

[EasternLI]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Clipper

That thing is starting to remind me of the clippers of yore. Which would juice up a tiny bit when it hits the Atlantic and drop a couple or 3 inches of fluff out this way. Used to love those. It's been forever.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

That thing is starting to remind me of the clippers of yore. Which would juice up a tiny bit when it hits the Atlantic and drop a couple or 3 inches of fluff out this way. Used to love those. It's been forever.

This year and last year are straight from the 80s weather wise.

[WeatherGeek2025]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This year and last year are straight from the 80s weather wise.

you can't compare last year with this year, not even close sir!

[cardinalland]

15 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

you can't compare last year with this year, not even close sir!

the prevailing synoptic pattern of this winter so far feels quite similar to the second half of last winter

[WeatherGeek2025]

10 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

the prevailing synoptic pattern of this winter so far feels quite similar to the second half of last winter

not even close

[MJO812]

37 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

the prevailing synoptic pattern of this winter so far feels quite similar to the second half of last winter

What lol 

[EastonSN+]

10 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

you can't compare last year with this year, not even close sir!

Saying 80s were cold/dry warm wet with clippers which is basically what we have seen both years.

[North and West]

Saying 80s were cold/dry warm wet with clippers which is basically what we have seen both years.

Reports of the clippers’ death are greatly exaggerated


.

[Krs4Lfe]

Nothing but a few flurries likely on New Year’s Day. The Clippers are more just like a dried out frontal passage until it reaches the Cape Cod area and then it can drop a few inches. Becoming less and less likely that there is any accumulation in these parts at all. 

[Krs4Lfe]

As far as the sixth to the ninth goes, models took a big step back last night. Everything seemingly goes to the west and north or to the south and east of our area. That timeframe still looks good for a whole scale pattern change with a positive PNA spike over the west, which would lead to a trough and potential storm moving through the east. But unless the PNA spikes high enough, the storm will just glide out to sea, similar to several winter weather events from last winter. Seems like amplification can be a real problem in this pattern. Either way, that timeframe looks good for a pattern change, but it’s looking less good for a bigger snow event in our area. Overall, the timeframe looks pretty decent for us over here and it would be a shame if it did not produce because we don’t see many patterns set up like that during peak Climo.

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Nothing but a few flurries likely on New Year’s Day. The Clippers are more just like a dried out frontal passage until it reaches the Cape Cod area and then it can drop a few inches. Becoming less and less likely that there is any accumulation in these parts at all. 

I have received about 9 inches total from Clippers this month - making December an above normal snowfall month

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

As far as the sixth to the ninth goes, models took a big step back last night. Everything seemingly goes to the west and north or to the south and east of our area. That timeframe still looks good for a whole scale pattern change with a positive PNA spike over the west, which would lead to a trough and potential storm moving through the east. But unless the PNA spikes high enough, the storm will just glide out to sea, similar to several winter weather events from last winter. Seems like amplification can be a real problem in this pattern. Either way, that timeframe looks good for a pattern change, but it’s looking less good for a bigger snow event in our area. Overall, the timeframe looks pretty decent for us over here and it would be a shame if it did not produce because we don’t see many patterns set up like that during peak Climo.

what do you consider a "bigger" snow event ?

 

[MJO812]

51 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Nothing but a few flurries likely on New Year’s Day. The Clippers are more just like a dried out frontal passage until it reaches the Cape Cod area and then it can drop a few inches. Becoming less and less likely that there is any accumulation in these parts at all. 

Coating to inch

[MJO812]

40 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

what do you consider a "bigger" snow event ?

 

He has been on the snow train theme since November along with Snowman. 

We have had a good December with more snow ( snow showers on the way for NYD)

[the_other_guy]

14 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

Another clipper type system?  Unless those get energized when they hit the coast, precip is going to be on the light side as they have no moisture to work with. From what I saw on the models southern jet is cut off from the northern one, so no sytems diving south to pick up GoM moisture, then coming up the coast for a wallop. 

Take what you can get after last few winters.

[snowman19]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

He has been on the snow train theme since November along with Snowman. 

We have had a good December with more snow ( snow showers on the way for NYD)

You were right about the late November into January cold. No denying that. You were also right about the snowy periods in December, no denying that either. BTW, i never thought there was going to be a torch for one second, however, I did doubt the level of cold and the amount of snow NYC saw this month, true. That said, I can see the cold continuing through January, but I vehemently disagree that we are going to see this below normal cold pattern continue through February and March. 5 months (Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) in a row of below normal cold in this new climate especially? Color me very skeptical. A La Niña hasn’t done that in over 30 years…..since 1995-96 and that was a very atypical Niña, coming off an El Niño with a strong +PDO.
 

From the new post on my thoughts in the ENSO thread:

“So far, since late November, we have been following a textbook front-loaded canonical La Niña pattern to a tee. They are typically cold in the east from late November through late January before they flip for February. Whether or not this one continues to follow that from here on out or becomes atypical for February and March remains to be seen. We should know where this one is headed within the next 3 weeks. I think it’s going to take a big, anomalous stratospheric shakeup (i.e. 2018), to break from the evolution we have been following and not flip come February and March. As of right now, I don’t see another way to avoid the classic La Niña winter footprint we are following other than that (stratosphere)”

[NEG NAO]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Coating to inch

those enhanced areas might not be located in the same areas depicted here - also an inverted trough situation could develop the timing of this event is critical because there will be more people traveling then a usual week day night. A wide range of amounts region wide is a possibility - not guaranteed yet. I am sure I will get a weenie from some here - I wish they would get rid of these 5th grade emoji's here .

[North and West]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You were right about the late November into January cold. No denying that. You were also right about the snowy periods in December, no denying that either. BTW, i never thought there was going to be a torch for one second, however, I did doubt the level of cold and the amount of snow NYC saw this month, true. That said, I vehemently disagree that we are going to see this below normal cold pattern continue through February and March. 5 months (Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) in a row of below normal cold in this new climate especially? Color me very skeptical. A La Niña hasn’t done that in over 30 years…..since 1995-96 and that was a very atypical Niña, coming off an El Niño with a strong +PDO.
 

From the new post on my thoughts in the ENSO thread:

“So far, since late November, we have been following a textbook front-loaded canonical La Niña pattern to a tee. They are typically cold in the east from late November through late January before they flip for February. Whether or not this one continues to follow that from here on out or becomes atypical for February and March remains to be seen. We should know where this one is headed within the next 3 weeks. I think it’s going to take a big, anomalous stratospheric shakeup (i.e. 2018), to break from the evolution we have been following and not flip come February and March. As of right now, I don’t see another way to avoid the classic La Niña winter footprint we are following other than that (stratosphere)”

you were very nice and reasonable responding to him, along with valid, logical arguments. is everything ok?

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, North and West said:

you were very nice and reasonable responding to him, along with valid, logical arguments. is everything ok?

[NEG NAO]

this shortwave is the strongest of the few arriving here the next few days - capable of putting down some accumulations in some areas of the region

[Krs4Lfe]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

this shortwave is the strongest of the few arriving here the next few days - capable of putting down some accumulations in some areas of the region

You'd think with that depiction that there would be at least 1" across NY metro and then once it hits the water, it would strengthen enough to reach a few inches in east New England. But the model depictions look so dried out