January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[NittanyWx]

On 1/21/2026 at 9:10 AM, forkyfork said:

i think we get at least one archambault event

It's got all the pieces.  I feel good about being a bearer of good news when we're able to sniff these out a couple weeks in advance.  I've had to shit all over a few of these longer range patterns in recent years when people were getting too far over their skis on the weeklies and it's nice to not have to do that right now into early Feb.  The snows this past weekend and now this weekend and likely next weekend kinda solidifies the meteo still works even if the models may not have the handle on it.

[mob1]

Still in fantasy range, but it would be nice to finish one storm and immediately start tracking the next one. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

GFS shows a blizzard for next Sunday, Cmc shows snow and than a blizzard coming up the east coast by next sunday! This is a real winter!

[TriPol]

29 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

GFS shows a blizzard for next Sunday, Cmc shows snow and than a blizzard coming up the east coast by next sunday! This is a real winter!

I'll say this: It's real nice to actually have multiple storms to track. Last few winters have been boring.

[Stormlover74]

A rare cold weather advisory 

NJZ006-105>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-231100-

/O.NEW.KOKX.CW.Y.0001.260124T0300Z-260124T1500Z/

Hudson-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-

New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings

(Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-

Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-

Southern Nassau-

107 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST

SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills around 5 below expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 10 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frostbite and hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin is exposed to these temperatures for any prolonged period of time.

[the_other_guy]

Meanwhile trying to hold on to my snowcover at 45F

[MANDA]

Check out the rapid ice buildup on Lake Erie over the last 10 days or so.

 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_NE/loop60v.html

[MANDA]

Man oh man the cold just keeps unloading out of Canada over the next 10 days or so and MAYBE into early February.  The actual temperatures and departure from normal maps are pretty astounding honestly.

[Stormlover74]

14 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Man oh man the cold just keeps unloading out of Canada over the next 10 days or so and MAYBE into early February.  The actual temperatures and departure from normal maps are pretty astounding honestly.

Yeah if not for the thaw we would've seen a solid -6 or 7 for the month

[MANDA]

You don't see a map like this every Winter.

 

[the_other_guy]

I’m surprised nobody’s talking about how warm it is today. Much warmer than forecast.

[Prue11]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

A rare cold weather advisory 

NJZ006-105>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-231100-

/O.NEW.KOKX.CW.Y.0001.260124T0300Z-260124T1500Z/

Hudson-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-

New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings

(Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-

Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-

Southern Nassau-

107 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST

SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills around 5 below expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 10 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frostbite and hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin is exposed to these temperatures for any prolonged period of time.

When was the last time we saw this?

[Joe4alb]

doesn't appear phase will be clean on the 18z Nam, southern vort is hanging back more than previous runs. 

[MANDA]

23 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I’m surprised nobody’s talking about how warm it is today. Much warmer than forecast.

Got up to 45 here.  Not sure what the forecast was.  I wasn't paying attention.  I like that my heating system got a 1 day reprieve.

[psv88]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

I’m surprised nobody’s talking about how warm it is today. Much warmer than forecast.

49 today, forecast was 44

[uofmiami]

46.8 &  46.5 at my stations, I think forecast was for a high of 44 or 45.

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

46.8 &  46.5 at my stations, I think forecast was for a high of 44 or 45.

*48

[donsutherland1]

Arctic air is poised to return to the area tomorrow. A frigid weekend lies ahead. That will set the stage for the region's biggest snowstorm so far this winter and perhaps in a number of years.

The temperature will likely stay below 20° in New York City and much of the region on Saturday. The last time that happened in New York City was January 21, 2025 when the high was 19°. 

Snow could arrive on Sunday. A significant snowfall is likely in and around the New York City area and surrounding region, even as a transition to sleet is likely. At present, it appears that New York City and its nearby suburbs are in line for 6"-12" of snow. Higher amounts are likely north and west of the City where ratios will be higher and mixing is less likely. There could be a few pockets of 12"-18" amounts in that region. Lesser amounts, probably in the 4"-8" range appear likely along the central Jersey Shore and across parts of Long Island.

The last time New York City saw a 6" or greater snowfall was January 28-29, 2022 when 8.3" fell. Its last 10" or above snowfall occurred during January 31-February 3, 2021 when 17.4" accumulated. There remains uncertainty and it may still be another day or two before the details can be pinned down with high confidence.

Very cold air will return to the region as the storm departs. Highs will be in the 20s through at least midweek.

Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. 

For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was -4.52 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.162 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 98% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.6° (3.1° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[MJO812]

Gfs with another snowstorm next weekend