January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[NittanyWx]

On 1/21/2026 at 9:10 AM, forkyfork said:

i think we get at least one archambault event

It's got all the pieces.  I feel good about being a bearer of good news when we're able to sniff these out a couple weeks in advance.  I've had to shit all over a few of these longer range patterns in recent years when people were getting too far over their skis on the weeklies and it's nice to not have to do that right now into early Feb.  The snows this past weekend and now this weekend and likely next weekend kinda solidifies the meteo still works even if the models may not have the handle on it.

[mob1]

Still in fantasy range, but it would be nice to finish one storm and immediately start tracking the next one. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

GFS shows a blizzard for next Sunday, Cmc shows snow and than a blizzard coming up the east coast by next sunday! This is a real winter!

[TriPol]

29 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

GFS shows a blizzard for next Sunday, Cmc shows snow and than a blizzard coming up the east coast by next sunday! This is a real winter!

I'll say this: It's real nice to actually have multiple storms to track. Last few winters have been boring.

[Stormlover74]

A rare cold weather advisory 

NJZ006-105>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-231100-

/O.NEW.KOKX.CW.Y.0001.260124T0300Z-260124T1500Z/

Hudson-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-

New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings

(Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-

Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-

Southern Nassau-

107 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST

SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills around 5 below expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 10 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frostbite and hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin is exposed to these temperatures for any prolonged period of time.

[the_other_guy]

Meanwhile trying to hold on to my snowcover at 45F

[MANDA]

Check out the rapid ice buildup on Lake Erie over the last 10 days or so.

 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_NE/loop60v.html

[MANDA]

Man oh man the cold just keeps unloading out of Canada over the next 10 days or so and MAYBE into early February.  The actual temperatures and departure from normal maps are pretty astounding honestly.

[Stormlover74]

14 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Man oh man the cold just keeps unloading out of Canada over the next 10 days or so and MAYBE into early February.  The actual temperatures and departure from normal maps are pretty astounding honestly.

Yeah if not for the thaw we would've seen a solid -6 or 7 for the month

[MANDA]

You don't see a map like this every Winter.

 

[the_other_guy]

I’m surprised nobody’s talking about how warm it is today. Much warmer than forecast.

[Prue11]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

A rare cold weather advisory 

NJZ006-105>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-231100-

/O.NEW.KOKX.CW.Y.0001.260124T0300Z-260124T1500Z/

Hudson-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-

New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings

(Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-

Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-

Southern Nassau-

107 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST

SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills around 5 below expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 10 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frostbite and hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin is exposed to these temperatures for any prolonged period of time.

When was the last time we saw this?

[Joe4alb]

doesn't appear phase will be clean on the 18z Nam, southern vort is hanging back more than previous runs.