brooklynwx99 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 this is probably the best shot at repeating a Feb 2021 type stretch in quite some time. hopefully we can cash in… we have high end overrunning potential around the 25th and then a more prototypical big coastal chance as the -NAO decays and the PNA rises 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Yes. I agree. I think the window.Is 1/28-2/1. If (IF) the long range modeling is correct. Then after 2/1 I, think the EPO floodgates open and entire CONUS goes mild for awhile i just hope we don't get the storm supressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Take the freudian judging about how you both suck at forecasting to PMs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 13 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: i just hope we don't get the storm supressed i think the fail mode is a miller b slip east but this looks really good 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 These are today’s ensemble outputs along with the Euro AI output. I do not ever recall seeing the widespread 6”+ amounts over virtually all of the NE part of the country on these models. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 this is the pretty goodest winter of all time so far 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 AI gfs is another hit for next sunday with very cold temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 30 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: AI gfs is another hit for next sunday with very cold temps And then a monster coastal after that. Would be an incredible achievement in AI weather modeling if it's even 80 percent correct. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, SnoSki14 said: And then a monster coastal after that. Would be an incredible achievement in AI weather modeling if it's even 80 percent correct. Yeah plus the old gfs has nothing north of VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah plus the old gfs has nothing north of VA It's def picking up on the overrunning though. I'm thinking its suppression bias due to overdoing the cold dome is in play right now but we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I'd use caution and patience over the next week and not underestimate the possibility of suppression. Not saying we will get nothing, I think we will get something. Just don't be shocked if the heaviest totals over the next 7-10 days are to the south of this sub forum. Some of the model eye candy is nice but no guarantee of the "big one". Cold is coming, no doubt about that but the snowfall prospects are more uncertain. As they say....Stay Tuned. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 The 18Z Euro over SE AR and N MS its like 1 inch of freezing rain in 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The 18Z Euro over SE AR and N MS its like 1 inch of freezing rain in 6 hours Hard to accrete heavy ZR 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 this is the pretty goodest winter of all time so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, MANDA said: I'd use caution and patience over the next week and not underestimate the possibility of suppression. Not saying we will get nothing, I think we will get something. Just don't be shocked if the heaviest totals over the next 7-10 days are to the south of this sub forum. Some of the model eye candy is nice but no guarantee of the "big one". Cold is coming, no doubt about that but the snowfall prospects are more uncertain. As they say....Stay Tuned. I always found it hard to get decent snow in the NYC/coastal sections with severe cold. Best events are always in the upper 20s low 30s. how low are the lows really going to be next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 32 minutes ago, North and West said: . yes my son 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 hours ago, Santa Claus said: this is the pretty goodest winter of all time so far 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Tony what's eps show for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 No one gives me credit on this forum. Whenever I start a thread, we either get hit by a hurricane or a blizzard. It's called the TriPol analog. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Two days ago I heard about a little bit of snow or rain on Thursday. ICON model was showing it and Euro too. Haven’t seen anything about it since then. I assume that’s not the case anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 56 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: Tony what's eps show for next week? All lit up. All the ensembles especially AI. Who lead the way with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 15 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said: Two days ago I heard about a little bit of snow or rain on Thursday. ICON model was showing it and Euro too. Haven’t seen anything about it since then. I assume that’s not the case anymore? I don't see anything. Saturday/Sunday the 25th looks to be a shot and then the 28th. Ensembles are very bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 ICON is very flat for next weekend. Looks like HP is quite strong nearby and causes suppression. I’m not saying that the suppression will be similar to last winter, where several storms in January and February never materialized up here because of how strong the high pressure and cold air was, but it’s something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 10 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said: ICON is very flat for next weekend. Looks like HP is quite strong nearby and causes suppression. I’m not saying that the suppression will be similar to last winter, where several storms in January and February never materialized up here because of how strong the high pressure and cold air was, but it’s something to keep in mind. As it looks right now, if a storm does develop late next weekend there's def going to be a battle with the very cold dry air. Hopefully we get a nice event. It's a legit threat as is the one behind it. Lots of tracking ahead. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: As it looks right now, if a storm does develop late next weekend there's def going to be a battle with the very cold dry air. Hopefully we get a nice event. It's a legit threat as is the one behind it. Lots of tracking ahead. We’ve seen long range threats that look good on paper eventually fizzle out seemingly every time over the past couple of years. This is a good setup. That bad luck has to end eventually. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Gfs Ai thingy says snow to ice storm than back to snow next weekends big system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 11 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: Gfs Ai thingy says snow to ice storm than back to snow next weekends big system! Huge system Regular gfs is flat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 CMC has way less press than 12z. This looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Huge system Regular gfs is flat But way better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 36 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: Gfs Ai thingy says snow to ice storm than back to snow next weekends big system! Don't start a thread yet, I'm begging you. 4 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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