January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

Jan 28th-30th has some legs

Yes. I agree. I think the window.Is 1/28-2/1. If (IF) the long range modeling is correct. Then after 2/1 I, think the EPO floodgates open and entire CONUS goes mild for awhile 

[donsutherland1]

Snow will redevelop and then continue into tonight. By the time the storm departs, New York City and nearby areas will likely see a storm total 2"-4" of snow. Parts of interior southeastern New York State across Connecticut into southeastern New England will likely see 3"-6" on account of higher snow-liquid ratios. Some 8" amounts are possible in southeastern New England.

Tomorrow will be brisk with highs in the lower 30s. Arctic air will move into the region on tomorrow night. Tuesday could be the coldest day so far this season with highs struggling to reach the lower 20s and lows in the teens in New York City. Suburban areas could see single-digit lows, especially on Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be another unseasonably cold day. Another shot of cold air could arrive Thursday or Friday, possibly with some snow flurries or snow showers. Temperatures will remain below normal through next week. 

After January 20th, conditions could become favorable for potentially larger snowfalls, as a generally cold pattern continues. The probability of a PNA+ regime has continued to increase. PNA-related developments would have large implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +22.15 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.660 today. The PNA was +1.107. That's the highest value since November 1, 2025 when the PNA was +1.698.The last time the PNA was at least this high on January 18th was 2014 when the PNA was +1.263.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 85% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.0° (-1.7° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.6° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[brooklynwx99]

this is probably the best shot at repeating a Feb 2021 type stretch in quite some time. hopefully we can cash in… we have high end overrunning potential around the 25th and then a more prototypical big coastal chance as the -NAO decays and the PNA rises

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Yes. I agree. I think the window.Is 1/28-2/1. If (IF) the long range modeling is correct. Then after 2/1 I, think the EPO floodgates open and entire CONUS goes mild for awhile 

i just hope we don't get the storm supressed

[BxEngine]

Take the freudian judging about how you both suck at forecasting to PMs.

[forkyfork]

13 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i just hope we don't get the storm supressed

i think the fail mode is a miller b slip east but this looks really good

[Tatamy]

These are today’s ensemble outputs along with the Euro AI output.  I do not ever recall seeing the widespread 6”+ amounts over virtually all of the NE part of the country on these models.

[Santa Claus]

this is the pretty goodest winter of all time so far

[Stormlover74]

AI gfs is another hit for next sunday with very cold temps

[SnoSki14]

30 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

AI gfs is another hit for next sunday with very cold temps

And then a monster coastal after that. Would be an incredible achievement in AI weather modeling if it's even 80 percent correct. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

And then a monster coastal after that. Would be an incredible achievement in AI weather modeling if it's even 80 percent correct. 

Yeah plus the old gfs has nothing north of VA

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah plus the old gfs has nothing north of VA

It's def picking up on the overrunning though. I'm thinking its suppression bias due to overdoing the cold dome is in play right now but we'll see. 

[MANDA]

I'd use caution and patience over the next week and not underestimate the possibility of suppression.  Not saying we will get nothing, I think we will get something.  Just don't be shocked if the heaviest totals over the next 7-10 days are to the south of this sub forum.  Some of the model eye candy is nice but no guarantee of the "big one".  Cold is coming, no doubt about that but the snowfall prospects are more uncertain.  As they say....Stay Tuned.

[SnowGoose69]

The 18Z  Euro over SE AR and N MS its like 1 inch of freezing rain in 6 hours

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 18Z  Euro over SE AR and N MS its like 1 inch of freezing rain in 6 hours

Hard to accrete heavy ZR 

[North and West]

this is the pretty goodest winter of all time so far

.

[Prue11]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

I'd use caution and patience over the next week and not underestimate the possibility of suppression.  Not saying we will get nothing, I think we will get something.  Just don't be shocked if the heaviest totals over the next 7-10 days are to the south of this sub forum.  Some of the model eye candy is nice but no guarantee of the "big one".  Cold is coming, no doubt about that but the snowfall prospects are more uncertain.  As they say....Stay Tuned.

I always found it hard to get decent snow in the NYC/coastal sections with severe cold. Best events are always in the upper 20s low 30s.

how low are the lows really going to be next weekend? 

[Santa Claus]

32 minutes ago, North and West said:

.

yes my son

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, Santa Claus said:

this is the pretty goodest winter of all time so far

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Tony what's eps show for next week?

[TriPol]

No one gives me credit on this forum. Whenever I start a thread, we either get hit by a hurricane or a blizzard. It's called the TriPol analog.

[Krs4Lfe]

Two days ago I heard about a little bit of snow or rain on Thursday. ICON model was showing it and Euro too. Haven’t seen anything about it since then. I assume that’s not the case anymore?

[Franklin0529]

56 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Tony what's eps show for next week?

All lit up. All the ensembles especially AI. Who lead the way with this storm 

[Franklin0529]

15 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Two days ago I heard about a little bit of snow or rain on Thursday. ICON model was showing it and Euro too. Haven’t seen anything about it since then. I assume that’s not the case anymore?

I don't see anything. Saturday/Sunday the 25th looks to be a shot and then the 28th. Ensembles are very bullish 

[Krs4Lfe]

ICON is very flat for next weekend. Looks like HP is quite strong nearby and causes suppression. I’m not saying that the suppression will be similar to last winter, where several storms in January and February never materialized up here because of how strong the high pressure and cold air was, but it’s something to keep in mind.

[Rjay]

10 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

ICON is very flat for next weekend. Looks like HP is quite strong nearby and causes suppression. I’m not saying that the suppression will be similar to last winter, where several storms in January and February never materialized up here because of how strong the high pressure and cold air was, but it’s something to keep in mind.

As it looks right now, if a storm does develop late next weekend there's def going to be a battle with the very cold dry air.  Hopefully we get a nice event.  It's a legit threat as is the one behind it.  Lots of tracking ahead. 

[Nibor]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

As it looks right now, if a storm does develop late next weekend there's def going to be a battle with the very cold dry air.  Hopefully we get a nice event.  It's a legit threat as is the one behind it.  Lots of tracking ahead. 

We’ve seen long range threats that look good on paper eventually fizzle out seemingly every time over the past couple of years. This is a good setup. That bad luck has to end eventually. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Gfs Ai thingy says snow to ice storm than back to snow next weekends big system!