January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

Jan 28th-30th has some legs

Yes. I agree. I think the window.Is 1/28-2/1. If (IF) the long range modeling is correct. Then after 2/1 I, think the EPO floodgates open and entire CONUS goes mild for awhile 

[donsutherland1]

Snow will redevelop and then continue into tonight. By the time the storm departs, New York City and nearby areas will likely see a storm total 2"-4" of snow. Parts of interior southeastern New York State across Connecticut into southeastern New England will likely see 3"-6" on account of higher snow-liquid ratios. Some 8" amounts are possible in southeastern New England.

Tomorrow will be brisk with highs in the lower 30s. Arctic air will move into the region on tomorrow night. Tuesday could be the coldest day so far this season with highs struggling to reach the lower 20s and lows in the teens in New York City. Suburban areas could see single-digit lows, especially on Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be another unseasonably cold day. Another shot of cold air could arrive Thursday or Friday, possibly with some snow flurries or snow showers. Temperatures will remain below normal through next week. 

After January 20th, conditions could become favorable for potentially larger snowfalls, as a generally cold pattern continues. The probability of a PNA+ regime has continued to increase. PNA-related developments would have large implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +22.15 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.660 today. The PNA was +1.107. That's the highest value since November 1, 2025 when the PNA was +1.698.The last time the PNA was at least this high on January 18th was 2014 when the PNA was +1.263.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 85% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.0° (-1.7° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.6° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[brooklynwx99]

this is probably the best shot at repeating a Feb 2021 type stretch in quite some time. hopefully we can cash in… we have high end overrunning potential around the 25th and then a more prototypical big coastal chance as the -NAO decays and the PNA rises

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Yes. I agree. I think the window.Is 1/28-2/1. If (IF) the long range modeling is correct. Then after 2/1 I, think the EPO floodgates open and entire CONUS goes mild for awhile 

i just hope we don't get the storm supressed

[BxEngine]

Take the freudian judging about how you both suck at forecasting to PMs.

[forkyfork]

13 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i just hope we don't get the storm supressed

i think the fail mode is a miller b slip east but this looks really good

[Tatamy]

These are today’s ensemble outputs along with the Euro AI output.  I do not ever recall seeing the widespread 6”+ amounts over virtually all of the NE part of the country on these models.

[Santa Claus]

this is the pretty goodest winter of all time so far

[Stormlover74]

AI gfs is another hit for next sunday with very cold temps

[SnoSki14]

30 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

AI gfs is another hit for next sunday with very cold temps

And then a monster coastal after that. Would be an incredible achievement in AI weather modeling if it's even 80 percent correct. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

And then a monster coastal after that. Would be an incredible achievement in AI weather modeling if it's even 80 percent correct. 

Yeah plus the old gfs has nothing north of VA

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah plus the old gfs has nothing north of VA

It's def picking up on the overrunning though. I'm thinking its suppression bias due to overdoing the cold dome is in play right now bit we'll see.