January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[Krs4Lfe]

Models punting the originally expected "good pattern" through first week of January. Onto the next week, and the next week, and I bet the week after that. Mild and warmth returns to most of CONUS except northeast starting next week. No sustained cold or snow for most of country. We might remain cold, but it'll be hard to snow with such persistent warm all around. Terrible look 

[Volcanic Winter]

Wind has been absolutely insane. My Tempest is NOT in a good spot for measuring windspeed and it’s routinely returning 30mph gusts, higher than I’ve ever seen from it except in like 2-3 other instances which were one off gusts. 

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Models punting the originally expected "good pattern" through first week of January. Onto the next week, and the next week, and I bet the week after that. Mild and warmth returns to most of CONUS except northeast starting next week. No sustained cold or snow for most of country. We might remain cold, but it'll be hard to snow with such persistent warm all around. Terrible look 

You said the same thing about this month. Take a break.

[MJO812]

Clipper Thursday  and clipper Sunday. 

[jm1220]

51 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Models punting the originally expected "good pattern" through first week of January. Onto the next week, and the next week, and I bet the week after that. Mild and warmth returns to most of CONUS except northeast starting next week. No sustained cold or snow for most of country. We might remain cold, but it'll be hard to snow with such persistent warm all around. Terrible look 

The cold will definitely take a break at some point, but it took a break in every good winter we’ve had. We don’t live in the Yukon. 

[NEG NAO]

20 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The cold will definitely take a break at some point, but it took a break in every good winter we’ve had. We don’t live in the Yukon. 

of course it will take a break but smaller breaks through January before the next arctic front comes through - also those great lakes cutters especially on the GFS are hard to believe with that massive blocking stretched across Greenland and westward - GFS has done this before trying to force the LP's to far into the block

[psv88]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

of course it will take a break but smaller breaks through January before the next arctic front comes through - also those great lakes cutters especially on the GFS are hard to believe with that massive blocking stretched across Greenland and westward - GFS has done this before trying to force the LP's to far into the block

Be careful dismissing those cutters. Many hobbyists have made the mistake of discounting cutters due to a block...yet we have seen many cutters slice right into those blocks like a warm knife through butter.

[David-LI]

euro 12z 

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, David-LI said:

euro 12z 

Interesting setup. Probably an inch or two type deal but nice refresher and possibly more with just a little better/sooner redevelopment. 

[MJO812]

[cleetussnow]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hair dryer should clean it all up.

[RU848789]

52 minutes ago, David-LI said:

euro 12z 

At least half of that is 1/1, although I'd be happy with a fresh coating each day...

[Prue11]

Wouldn’t surprise me if east end of li ends up with 2”

[RU848789]

On 12/29/2025 at 3:23 PM, RU848789 said:

At the 30,000 foot level, the EPS, GEPS and GEFS ensemble means are far more similar (for 95, inland and even through interior PA, NY, New England) out to 360 hrs than they are different, indicating pretty good agreement on the general idea of a snowy period with most of this falling after 1/5 (all have <1" for most of the 95 corridor from DC thru NYC and even inland a bit through then).

 

 

The EPS, GEPS and GEFS ensemble means for snowfall through 1/13, 12Z, generally dropped a decent amount in the last 24 hours (except for the GEPS north of NYC and not because any snow was forecast to fall over the last 24 hrs), presumably reflecting the pattern not being quite as good for cold and snow as it was 24 hours ago.  On today's 12Z ensembles through 1/13, 12Z, Edison, NJ (25 miles SW of CPK, whose numbers look wonky on these graphics) dropped from 4.0" to 2.0" on the EPS, it fell from 3.5" to 2.8" on the GEPS and it fell from 3.5" to 2.3" on the GEFS.  Picking one more point, White Plains dropped from 4.5" to 2.8 on the EPS, it jumped from 3.7" to 4.8" on the GEPS (the only increase) and it fell from 4.3" to 3.0" on the GEFS.  Given how far out these go, I'm not even going to attempt to explain any of this - just noting a modest to significant decrease for most of the 95 corridor at least over the last 24 hours.  

 

[SnowGoose69]

I still hold to 1/12-1/14 before any big change happens.  Looks more and more likely it is around that time.  

[the_other_guy]

4 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Models punting the originally expected "good pattern" through first week of January. Onto the next week, and the next week, and I bet the week after that. Mild and warmth returns to most of CONUS except northeast starting next week. No sustained cold or snow for most of country. We might remain cold, but it'll be hard to snow with such persistent warm all around. Terrible look 

Didnt you say that about Christmas week?

And arent we going to be at or about freezing through the first week?

[coastalplainsnowman]

25 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Didnt you say that about Christmas week?

And arent we going to be at or about freezing through the first week?

There have been a few years in the past 25 or so where the models consistently called for a warmup or cool down two weeks out, just on the horizon, but it would not materialize, and in response the models would seemingly  just keep pushing said warmup or cool down out yet another few weeks, perpetually out there on a two week horizon.  Eventually folks on here would start to say "it just seems to want to be warm [or cold] this winter"  The models would never quite catch on though, continually promising a change was just around the corner.  I wonder if this is shaping up to be one of those years.

[Krs4Lfe]

34 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Didnt you say that about Christmas week?

And arent we going to be at or about freezing through the first week?

It’s true that it will be cold here. Rest of country will return to warmth which decreases chance for snow across the US and decreases our snow chances as well. We’ll be the only part of the US until mid January with colder weather. Not ideal for the type of amplified bowling ball type systems we’ll need in order to get our snowfall up to average. January 2022 had a big chance across US after a warm December 2021 which provided ample chances for snow across US. Same with January 2024. Even January 2025 after a rather dry and mild December. But still no signs of a wholescale pattern change through mid January imo 

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Didnt you say that about Christmas week?

And arent we going to be at or about freezing through the first week?

I still don't know which old poster he is. Seems like a troll who loves warmth. 

[MJO812]

Watch the 4th 

[Franklin0529]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Watch the 4th 

Yup I was just coming to say. That Sunday deal came north about 300 miles since yesterday 

[North and West]

Watch the 4th 

Why?


.

[NEG NAO]

24 minutes ago, North and West said:

Why?


.

Because its the 84 hour NAM - would be interesting if it ends up leading the way.........the 06Z run is not giving up the northward track yet

 

[snowman19]

t’s starting to look like a +TNH (-EPO) develops maybe just after we pass mid-January into late January. The caveat with +TNH patterns is that they are also correlated with +AO (+NAM), +NAO and a healthy SE ridge. So, while certainly arctic cold, it’s not going to be a “KU” pattern with ‘big dog’ snowstorms up the I-95 corridor, DC-BOS as some folks on twitter are saying. IF said +TNH pattern (-EPO/+AO/+NAO/SE ridge) develops just after mid-month into late January, it would argue for overrunning events and SWFEs. The question then becomes does it favor New England? Or PHL/NYC north into New England?

[uofmiami]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

t’s starting to look like a +TNH (-EPO) develops maybe just after we pass mid-January into late January. The caveat with +TNH patterns is that they are also correlated with +AO (+NAM), +NAO and a healthy SE ridge. So, while certainly arctic cold, it’s not going to be a “KU” pattern with ‘big dog’ snowstorms up the I-95 corridor, DC-BOS as some folks on twitter are saying. IF said +TNH pattern (-EPO/+AO/+NAO/SE ridge) develops just after mid-month into late January, it would argue for overrunning events and SWFEs. The question then becomes does it favor New England? Or PHL/NYC north into New England?

Great, Webb posted this yesterday on X:

 

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Great, Webb posted this yesterday on X:
 

Yep and he also followed up with this tweet…the +AO (aka “NAM”) and +NAO with SE ridge risk:

 

 

 

 

[MANDA]

December Precipitation at my location:

Melted: 3.88"

Snowfall: 13.1"

Precipitation total for 2025: 43.43". 

Not a bad total just that is was very lean rainfall wise during the time of year that it was needed most.  In addition there were wetter periods followed by long periods with little precipitation.

Healthy and Happy New Year to all.

[NEG NAO]

Too end this pointless NAM Discussion at least it stopped the northward trend at 12Z noticing the northwest flow and block and now moving east with the LP

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Too end this pointless NAM Discussion at least it stopped the northward trend at 12Z noticing the northwest flow and block and now moving east with the LP

Yep this is done. It was a longshot.

[MJO812]

Close the shades until the second week of January when the EPO goes negative.