OBS/Totals for 12/26-27 Storm

[winterwx21]

8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

well, i was hoping you'd be wrong. 

It's a snow/sleet mix here. More snow mixes in when the precip gets heavier. A long way to go so we'll have to see how it plays out. If it's more of a snow/sleet mix then maybe we'll get 3 inches rather than 5 or 6. 

[MJO812]

Snowing pretty good now in Brooklyn. Dusting on everything.

[weatherpruf]

Just now, Rjay said:

Mount Holly is gonna toss in the towel soon for central NJ

its been my experience that, when this happens, even areas expected to do well fall short. seen it a thousand times. i don't think anyone is gonna get buried at this point. that's been my experience over the years.

[NEG NAO]

Unexpected heavy sleet here - the road crews are putting a ton of salt on the roads - 27 and just a coating of sleet - who knows how long the sleetfest will last - hopefully this either changes to snow or ends early

[Superstorm]

Given the radar over NYC and NE NJ I’m surprised most stations aren’t reporting anything 

You got to look at the low beam radars….




.

[winterwarlock]

Sleet freezing rain snow mixed bag here 27 in belle mead

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

13 minutes ago, hooralph said:

It started snowing in Ernest about 20 minutes ago on the upper west side. Now sleet is already mixing in.

He must be really cold.

[Volcanic Winter]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

Unexpected heavy sleet here - the road crews are putting a ton of salt on the roads - 27 and just a coating of sleet - who knows how long the sleetfest will last - hopefully this either changes to snow or ends early

I just almost ate it going out to put more salt down, that’s why I’m posting a lot. Kinda crazy haven’t had this kind of iciness in a while. It could be just down by me but regardless giving the heads up. 

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Mount Holly is gonna toss in the towel soon for central NJ

maybe not; sleet is a real hazard and they would rather not give people the idea its ok to hit up the bars at the jersey shore.....

[Jersey_Snowhole]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

What's your temp?

30

[Nibor]

On 12/24/2025 at 11:07 PM, Nibor said:

Someone down near Philly is gonna get like 3 inches of sleet from this

By Philly I meant forky

[winterwarlock]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Mount Holly is gonna toss in the towel soon for central NJ

Epic bust for them..why did they double down

[Winterweatherlover]

Very light snow in southern Yonkers. 

[EasternLI]

Oh yeah this is a nice band. Started right up when it moved in. And it's dumping here now. Everything covered.

[weatherpruf]

Just now, winterwarlock said:

Sleet freezing rain snow mixed bag here 27 in belle mead

 

i heard nothing about freezing rain here; but nj 101.5 which i hate listening to but i needed a traffic update, did forecast it.

[MANDA]

Still mostly sleet (light) here atm.  Temp fell from 20 to 18.

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

maybe not; sleet is a real hazard and they would rather not give people the idea its ok to hit up the bars at the jersey shore.....

On snow i meant

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

30

Enjoy your ice storm

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Epic bust for them..why did they double down

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ

621 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

 

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure approaches from the west and passes through the

region tonight before departing Saturday morning. High pressure

then passes through the region Saturday afternoon through Sunday

afternoon. A strong low pressure then rides through the Great

Lakes Sunday night into Monday, dragging a strong cold front

through our region. High pressure thereafter, though passing

cold fronts may bring small chances of snow through the rest of

the week.

 

&&

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

620 PM update...

Well, that changed quickly. The models that were surging in the

warm air aloft (NAM in particular) seem to have mostly had a

handle on things, at least across our CWA, with most areas

already changed to freezing rain and sleet. Have made a

significant cut to snowfall totals, which necessitated dropping

the warnings for Monroe, Warren, Middlesex and Monmouth

counties. That having been said, we are now starting to get

anxious about ice accumulation, since several more hours of

freezing rain may put some areas in the game for ice storm

warning criteria (1/4 inch). Made some upward adjustments in the

ice forecast and will watch obs closely over the next few

hours.

 

2 PM discussion...

No significant changes were made to the forecast as everything

appears on track taking into account most recent observations

and guidance

 

Winter Storm Warnings remain in place for Monmouth, Middlesex,

Somerset, Warren, Morris, and Sussex County in NJ, and Monroe

County in PA with Winter Weather Advisories all the way down to

South Jersey and Northern Delmarva, though the Advisories on the

southern extent are more for ice than snow.

 

The overarching theme still remains as in impactful winter

storm moves in this afternoon and evening. The key threat will

be widespread travel disruptions during the evening and heading

into the overnight hours.

 

The setup for this storm is an area of low pressure currently

near Western Pennsylvania diving toward the Mid-Atlantic and

moving offshore by Saturday morning. Cold air is firmly

entrenched at the surface as a Canadian high pressure system has

locked in a cold air damming pattern across the Mid Atlantic.

As the surface low digs through the Mid Atlantic it will bring a

widespread mix of wintry precipitation across our forecast

area.

 

Warm air advection in the mid levels will promote lift through

the afternoon and lead to an advancing precipitation shield

moving into western areas by 3 PM or so. Generally, guidance is

showing this leading edge starting out as snow for most areas

with predominantly sleet starting to mix in as a low level warm

nose starts pushing into the region. There still is some

considerable spread in the guidance at this point with respect

to the strength of the warm nose and the extent it pushes

northward. Ensemble soundings in DESI suggest that the warm

noise will push close to I-78 but stays just south. The only

guidance that pushes the warm air further north is the NAM and

it certainly can`t be discounted given the historical record

when it comes to boundary layer temps in previous winter storms

across the Mid Atlantic. However, it does not appear to be

initializing well compared to upstream observations, so while

not discounting entirely, it would be surprising if that

solution pans out.

 

Further south across the Philly Metro area, the ensemble

guidance confirms deterministic guidance with a modest 0.5-1.5C

warm noise setting up over the southern portion of the forecast

area.

 

What all this means is that in areas north of I-78, we`ll

likely see mostly snow throughout the event. From roughly Philly

to I-78, we`ll see a widespread mix of snow and sleet generally

favoring sleet as there`s warm air starting the melting process

aloft, and for areas south and east of Philly it will be mostly

a rain event.

 

As for specific totals, the challenge in addition to ptype is

the presence of a good 850mb deformation band expected to

develop as a result of strong 700mb fgen. This points to the

development of a mesoscale band that sets up somewhere between

I78 and the Catskills. Within that band, we`ll see orographic

lift and snowfall rates of 1- 2" an hour. Ensemble guidance

suggests that the band will most likely be pushing through

between 7-11pm but could arrive as early as 5pm.

 

This leads to snowfall totals in the warned area ranging from

4-6 for the lower elevations and southern portion of the

warning, with amounts in the 6-10 range in the northern portion.

Highest confidence to see those higher totals are in northern

Sussex and Morris County as well in local higher elevation

spots. All of this remains subject to the warm nose staying

south however so the failure mode for this forecast is somewhat

high. Regardless if some spots in the warning do not reach the

6" criteria, the presence of inch an hour snow rates in the

night time rush hour on a Friday suggest high potential for

travel disruptions over the holiday weekend.

 

Looking further south, its really all about how strong the warm

nose is. Soundings and guidance have honed in on the idea that

for most of this area, its going to be predominately a sleet

storm. Current forecast has about 2 to 5" south of I-78 to about

I-195 in NJ and from Monroe County south to the Allentown area

in PA. No changes to the Winter Weather Advisory in this area.

 

Around the Philly metro area out to about Reading and points

south in PA and into South Jersey, generally a coating to 2

inches of snow/sleet are expected. Areas along and west of the

I-95 corridor also see some light icing, up to a 0.05" or so,

though higher amounts over a tenth and up to two tenths are

anticipated over portions of Chester and Berks County (thank

cold air damming for that). Thinking the stronger dynamics and

colder air is more off to the north, limiting snow totals with a

brief period of snow and a prolonged period of sleet. While

less snow is expected, it will be quite messy with the

combination of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Winter Weather

Advisory remains in effect for this area.

 

Going further south to far South Jersey, and northern Delmarva

there is increased confidence in potential for icing. Low-level

cold air will struggle to be removed as warm-air advection at

the surface is not particularly strong. The result will be a

period of freezing rain and a Winter Weather Advisory for icing

rather than snow in Salem/Cumberland County in NJ, New Castle

County in DE, and Kent County in DE. HREF Probability is around

60-80% to see measurable ice accumulation in these spots

tonight. While there will be some snow at onset, significant

accumulations are unexpected, with amounts only up to an inch.

 

For the South Jersey coast and lower Delmarva, this will

primarily be a rain event. While some flakes are possible at

onset, a quick change to rain is expected.

 

Precipitation tapers off Saturday morning as temperatures

struggle to warm into the 30s. For areas with a fresh snowpack

anticipate sub freezing max temps while areas further south

should be able to warm into mid to upper 30s

[weatherpruf]

Just now, Rjay said:

On snow i meant

oh yeah the snow thing is kaput. i can see that. looking forward to the next threat, hope it isn't a month from now.....

[jm1220]

Just under 2” here, like 1.8”. Flake size increasing again. 

[kat5hurricane]

A little burst to coat everything about an hour ago, just flurries since 

[nycsnow]

Mesoscale Discussion 2276
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Areas affected...Upstate NY to eastern Long Island...including parts of southern New England

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 262341Z - 270545Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow bands will spread/develop southeast across upstate NY toward southern New England over the next few hours. Snow rates of 1-1.5"/hr are expected.

DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough is progressing southeast across western NY/PA early this evening. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a notable midlevel vort max southwest of Syracuse, and this is reflected well in radar data. Multiple heavy snow bands have developed ahead of this vort max, strongly influenced by low-level warm advection, extending across upstate NY into the lower Hudson Valley. Boundary layer moistening supports this with dew points now rising into the mid teens (F) where snow rates are increasing. Over the next few hours snow rates are expected to increase downstream across western CT and Long Island, largely in response to this well-defined short wave digging toward the northern Middle Atlantic. Snow rates of 1-1.5"/hr can be expected prior to the short wave passage.

..Darrow.. 12/26/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

[SnowGoose69]

Long Island is probably still fine.  Not sure about Queens Brooklyn Bronx or NYC though unless that line stops like the 12/3Km NAM showed 

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ

621 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

 

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure approaches from the west and passes through the

region tonight before departing Saturday morning. High pressure

then passes through the region Saturday afternoon through Sunday

afternoon. A strong low pressure then rides through the Great

Lakes Sunday night into Monday, dragging a strong cold front

through our region. High pressure thereafter, though passing

cold fronts may bring small chances of snow through the rest of

the week.

 

&&

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

620 PM update...

Well, that changed quickly. The models that were surging in the

warm air aloft (NAM in particular) seem to have mostly had a

handle on things, at least across our CWA, with most areas

already changed to freezing rain and sleet. Have made a

significant cut to snowfall totals, which necessitated dropping

the warnings for Monroe, Warren, Middlesex and Monmouth

counties. That having been said, we are now starting to get

anxious about ice accumulation, since several more hours of

freezing rain may put some areas in the game for ice storm

warning criteria (1/4 inch). Made some upward adjustments in the

ice forecast and will watch obs closely over the next few

hours.

 

2 PM discussion...

No significant changes were made to the forecast as everything

appears on track taking into account most recent observations

and guidance

 

Winter Storm Warnings remain in place for Monmouth, Middlesex,

Somerset, Warren, Morris, and Sussex County in NJ, and Monroe

County in PA with Winter Weather Advisories all the way down to

South Jersey and Northern Delmarva, though the Advisories on the

southern extent are more for ice than snow.

 

The overarching theme still remains as in impactful winter

storm moves in this afternoon and evening. The key threat will

be widespread travel disruptions during the evening and heading

into the overnight hours.

 

The setup for this storm is an area of low pressure currently

near Western Pennsylvania diving toward the Mid-Atlantic and

moving offshore by Saturday morning. Cold air is firmly

entrenched at the surface as a Canadian high pressure system has

locked in a cold air damming pattern across the Mid Atlantic.

As the surface low digs through the Mid Atlantic it will bring a

widespread mix of wintry precipitation across our forecast

area.

 

Warm air advection in the mid levels will promote lift through

the afternoon and lead to an advancing precipitation shield

moving into western areas by 3 PM or so. Generally, guidance is

showing this leading edge starting out as snow for most areas

with predominantly sleet starting to mix in as a low level warm

nose starts pushing into the region. There still is some

considerable spread in the guidance at this point with respect

to the strength of the warm nose and the extent it pushes

northward. Ensemble soundings in DESI suggest that the warm

noise will push close to I-78 but stays just south. The only

guidance that pushes the warm air further north is the NAM and

it certainly can`t be discounted given the historical record

when it comes to boundary layer temps in previous winter storms

across the Mid Atlantic. However, it does not appear to be

initializing well compared to upstream observations, so while

not discounting entirely, it would be surprising if that

solution pans out.

 

Further south across the Philly Metro area, the ensemble

guidance confirms deterministic guidance with a modest 0.5-1.5C

warm noise setting up over the southern portion of the forecast

area.

 

What all this means is that in areas north of I-78, we`ll

likely see mostly snow throughout the event. From roughly Philly

to I-78, we`ll see a widespread mix of snow and sleet generally

favoring sleet as there`s warm air starting the melting process

aloft, and for areas south and east of Philly it will be mostly

a rain event.

 

As for specific totals, the challenge in addition to ptype is

the presence of a good 850mb deformation band expected to

develop as a result of strong 700mb fgen. This points to the

development of a mesoscale band that sets up somewhere between

I78 and the Catskills. Within that band, we`ll see orographic

lift and snowfall rates of 1- 2" an hour. Ensemble guidance

suggests that the band will most likely be pushing through

between 7-11pm but could arrive as early as 5pm.

 

This leads to snowfall totals in the warned area ranging from

4-6 for the lower elevations and southern portion of the

warning, with amounts in the 6-10 range in the northern portion.

Highest confidence to see those higher totals are in northern

Sussex and Morris County as well in local higher elevation

spots. All of this remains subject to the warm nose staying

south however so the failure mode for this forecast is somewhat

high. Regardless if some spots in the warning do not reach the

6" criteria, the presence of inch an hour snow rates in the

night time rush hour on a Friday suggest high potential for

travel disruptions over the holiday weekend.

 

Looking further south, its really all about how strong the warm

nose is. Soundings and guidance have honed in on the idea that

for most of this area, its going to be predominately a sleet

storm. Current forecast has about 2 to 5" south of I-78 to about

I-195 in NJ and from Monroe County south to the Allentown area

in PA. No changes to the Winter Weather Advisory in this area.

 

Around the Philly metro area out to about Reading and points

south in PA and into South Jersey, generally a coating to 2

inches of snow/sleet are expected. Areas along and west of the

I-95 corridor also see some light icing, up to a 0.05" or so,

though higher amounts over a tenth and up to two tenths are

anticipated over portions of Chester and Berks County (thank

cold air damming for that). Thinking the stronger dynamics and

colder air is more off to the north, limiting snow totals with a

brief period of snow and a prolonged period of sleet. While

less snow is expected, it will be quite messy with the

combination of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Winter Weather

Advisory remains in effect for this area.

 

Going further south to far South Jersey, and northern Delmarva

there is increased confidence in potential for icing. Low-level

cold air will struggle to be removed as warm-air advection at

the surface is not particularly strong. The result will be a

period of freezing rain and a Winter Weather Advisory for icing

rather than snow in Salem/Cumberland County in NJ, New Castle

County in DE, and Kent County in DE. HREF Probability is around

60-80% to see measurable ice accumulation in these spots

tonight. While there will be some snow at onset, significant

accumulations are unexpected, with amounts only up to an inch.

 

For the South Jersey coast and lower Delmarva, this will

primarily be a rain event. While some flakes are possible at

onset, a quick change to rain is expected.

 

Precipitation tapers off Saturday morning as temperatures

struggle to warm into the 30s. For areas with a fresh snowpack

anticipate sub freezing max temps while areas further south

should be able to warm into mid to upper 30s

 

[NEG NAO]

luckily there is no wind with this sleetfest

[hooralph]

8 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

He must be really cold.

lol. used voice to text and didn't check that. 

[EasternLI]

Dumping.

[Superstorm]

Back to sleet and snow mix in Montvale.


.

[BoulderWX]

I thought 3-6 was realistic and I’ll be the first to admit I was wrong. Congratulations to all who cash in!