26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Others have chimed in already, but the reason why I defer to BOX for forecasts and warnings:

• They do this for a living, are trained, and focus their entire workday on generating forecasts.
• They have access to forecasting tools and data that most of us do not.
• They have experience with our climatology and know how to apply that model generated forecasts that may get overlooked.
• They aren't generating forecasts with the requirement to generate ratings, page views, clicks, or advertising revenue.

Just my opinion... They provide a valuable service to us, even those of us who have the interest in making our own forecasts. I don't mind the more conservative approach to their forecasting compared to what you get everywhere else these days.  Some irony there...

Well all Mets that get paid do it for a living . That doesn’t make anyone an official voice though, All equal 

 

They don’t have access to anything that other Mets don’t have.  For example .. energy Mets have access to more . 
 

Playing catchup in my opinion is a poor way to forecast . An example during the screamer last week . They had wind advisories up when it was apparent that widespread 60-70 mph gusts and big damage would occur and was occurring . 
 

In summary.. just because they are a govt entity does not make them everyone’s official voice . I’ve seen Hammer on air ignore their watches/ warnings etc when he doesn’t agree . People can choose whatever “official” voice they want 

[CT Rain]

5 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Others have chimed in already, but the reason why I defer to BOX for forecasts and warnings:

• They do this for a living, are trained, and focus their entire workday on generating forecasts.
• They have access to forecasting tools and data that most of us do not.
• They have experience with our climatology and know how to apply that to model generated forecasts that may get overlooked.
• They aren't generating forecasts with the requirement to generate ratings, page views, clicks, or advertising revenue.

Just my opinion... They provide a valuable service to us, even those of us who have the interest in making our own forecasts. I don't mind the more conservative approach to their forecasting compared to what you get everywhere else these days.  Some irony there...

That's true.. however their snow forecasts are almost always far more bullish than the people doing it for "ratings, page views, clicks, or advertising revenue." Not sure how to square that circle.

[BrianW]

The traffic on 95 is a standstill in both direction here. Hopefully everyone gets home before the snow starts. 

 

[bristolri_wx]

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

That's true.. however their snow forecasts are almost always far more bullish than the people doing it for "ratings, page views, clicks, or advertising revenue." Not sure how to square that circle.

Just because you don't fall in those categories don't mean there aren't others out there that do.  The general public consume weather forecasts in many different ways than we do here on this forum.  I haven't found their forecasts overly bullish recently, but I would defer to you since you do this for a living and probably compare notes with what BOX is posting...

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, Hailstoned said:

I will always go to the Box discussions for a little sanity check after all the hype, innuendo and hysteria that bounces about in certain quarters here. Doing so is like putting a kid in time out, taking a deep breath, and taking stock of things. Sometimes blending Box with the outlooks of cooler heads here gives one a pretty good assessment of what's to come.

No qualms there. I read their discos everyday . Sometimes they’re spot on and sometimes they’re spot awful. Much of that depends on which met is “ on the desk” we know the names and know who is and who isn’t . They are factored in , just like any other met outlets public or private that people like to follow . 

[bristolri_wx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well all Mets that get paid do it for a living . That doesn’t make anyone an official voice though, All equal 

 

They don’t have access to anything that other Mets don’t have.  For example .. energy Mets have access to more . 
 

Playing catchup in my opinion is a poor way to forecast . An example during the screamer last week . They had wind advisories up when it was apparent that widespread 60-70 mph gusts and big damage would occur and was occurring . 
 

In summary.. just because they are a govt entity does not make them everyone’s official voice . I’ve seen Hammer on air ignore their watches/ warnings etc when he doesn’t agree . People can choose whatever “official” voice they want 

That wasn't the original question you asked - you asked why do we care what BOX says/does.  Others have moved the goal posts to them being "official" forecast.  I didn't make such a claim in my post.

By the way, ask your home insurance company who "officially" issues tropical storm and hurricane forecasts that affect your deductable if you need to make a claim... it ain't anyone on this forum or Jim Cantore...

[Damage In Tolland]

Back on topic..

 

Anyone see the 18z NAM?

Asking for a friend 

heavy heavy snow 

[weatherwiz]

LOL at the NAM...way zoinked with QPF

[CoastalWx]

We Nam 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Back on topic..

 

Anyone see the 18z NAM?

Asking for a friend 

You’ve been NAM’d!

[bristolri_wx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Back on topic..

 

Anyone see the 18z NAM?

Asking for a friend 

Compared to 12z looks farther north and east with heavier snow, but only at hour 12 on pivotal.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, bristolri_wx said:

Compared to 12z looks farther north and east with heavier snow, but only at hour 12 on pivotal.

Oh it is.. and then some 

[Damage In Tolland]

Sleet bomb NYC

[bristolri_wx]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

You’ve been NAM’d!

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

If the 21Z SREFs are any precursor to NAMs

[VivaManchVegas]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why are folks so obsessed with what BOX does? They aren’t the official voice, and usually are always in catchup mode. Will anyone be shocked when they have warnings for all of CT tonight? 

I can't help myself.  Been sitting on this for an hour. Giggity. 

[CoastalWx]

Nice look here on Nam

[Sey-Mour Snow]

[CT Rain]

10 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Just because you don't fall in those categories don't mean there aren't others out there that do.  The general public consume weather forecasts in many different ways than we do here on this forum.  I haven't found their forecasts overly bullish recently, but I would defer to you since you do this for a living and probably compare notes with what BOX is posting...

I can't speak for other markets but at least in Hartford-New Haven I think the average TV forecast is typically more conservative than the NWS and also more frequently correct. 

[bristolri_wx]

NAM 3K looks similar in coverage but less snow overall.

[weatherwiz]

I wouldn't be surprised if many ends as a little sleet or freezing drizzle but cut those 18z QPF totals down a bit

[EastonSN+]

Updated

[CoastalWx]

3K nearing half inch QPF on the shore south of BOS. We pray.

[Baroclinic Zone]

You could see the changes early on at 5h NAM. Consolidate that s/w and punches into that cold air dome more.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

3K nearing half inch QPF on the shore south of BOS. We pray.

12km Nammy with the 1/2 pounder here.

 

[Great Snow 1717]

24 minutes ago, Hailstoned said:

I will always go to the Box discussions for a little sanity check after all the hype, innuendo and hysteria that bounces about in certain quarters here. Doing so is like putting a kid in time out, taking a deep breath, and taking stock of things. Sometimes blending Box with the outlooks of cooler heads here gives one a pretty good assessment of what's to come.

100% spot on..

[TalcottWx]

probably time to migrate: 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

NAM please. Half inch qpf here 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Some places will have hefty amounts due to high ratios.  This won’t be 10:1 for a lot of folks.  Enjoy it!!

[mahk_webstah]

80% probs and 1-2” here.  Seems high