26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.

[WinterSnow]

26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Happy birthday to me! 

And we're still under a Winter Weather Advisory not a Warning?

[Brian5671]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t see how 6-10 melts with an ice to cold rain scenario for most of SNE

Agreed-will absorb most of it and turn it into a glacier once we go below freezing Monday nite.

[weatherwiz]

Electric Blue could get 7" and Kevin only 3"  

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Electric Blue could get 7" and Kevin only 3"  

Not EB anymore. Last week I saw your car there so you know this 

[codfishsnowman]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

6z NAM bufkit for BDL. When I see -30 into the DGZ I get all tingly 

20 miles north baby!

[codfishsnowman]

45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It would be nice for once to keep snow around longer than 48hrs. God forbid that happens. 

I was thinking about that. I mean real snow cover 6 inches plus for at least a week to two weeks....been awhile for many of us in the tropics 

[weatherwiz]

I will be shocked if there aren't thundersnow reports in the Lower Hudson Valley/Fairfield County tonight 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I will be shocked if there aren't thundersnow reports in the Lower Hudson Valley/Fairfield County tonight 

Sweet jesus-let's hope

[EastonSN+]

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Sweet jesus-let's hope

Lower Hudson Valley into Fairfield County I think may end up in the sweet spot. I was really thinking there was room for some of the heavier banding to end up pretty far north like the NAM has. Even though the NAM is kind of alone there are two things the NAM are great at sniffing out, warm layers and banding. But the NAM has seemed to back off on the intense fronto band it had on some earlier runs but also argues for multiple bands. 

But one thing that is going to enhance things in the Lower HV into Fairfield County will be the proximity to the mix line and 700 warm front. It will really dump here. If anyone is going to end up with something along the lines of 8-10" it will be within this area. 

I am wondering if the sharp cutoff line will end up from like just west of Springfield to around Hartford south to like Guilford. 

[George001]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

lol that’s awesome. Basically just halved totals for SNE in one run. Completely loses the push of heavy snow here.

Sucked us all back in for 2 days only to pull the rug out 12 hours before 

Eh it’s all going to melt in 2 days anyways, even if everything goes right we aren’t getting more than what 4-6? Oh well, on to the next threat. Actual snow that sticks around for a month >>>>>> instant gratification from models like the NAM with a known NW bias printing 8 inches of digital snow.

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

You have a better shot of higher amounts. Who knew Simsbury is a snowier spot than Tolland.

LOL, but historically many times it is

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Lower Hudson Valley into Fairfield County I think may end up in the sweet spot. I was really thinking there was room for some of the heavier banding to end up pretty far north like the NAM has. Even though the NAM is kind of alone there are two things the NAM are great at sniffing out, warm layers and banding. But the NAM has seemed to back off on the intense fronto band it had on some earlier runs but also argues for multiple bands. 

But one thing that is going to enhance things in the Lower HV into Fairfield County will be the proximity to the mix line and 700 warm front. It will really dump here. If anyone is going to end up with something along the lines of 8-10" it will be within this area. 

I am wondering if the sharp cutoff line will end up from like just west of Springfield to around Hartford south to like Guilford. 

West of I-91 definitely the sweet spot for CT

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

West of I-91 definitely the sweet spot for CT

Ya, I think we do ok here.  Let’s get this party started. 

[Spanks45]

GFS a bit beefier and NE....I see a 'screw zone' showing up somewhere in SWCT, they always seems to find my area hopefully we can somehow miss it this time. Good luck to all

[tavwtby]

23 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I will be shocked if there aren't thundersnow reports in the Lower Hudson Valley/Fairfield County tonight 

yeah there's a lot of convective energy there definitely

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

GFS a bit beefier and NE....I see a 'screw zone' showing up somewhere in SWCT, they always seems to find my area hopefully we can somehow miss it this time. Good luck to all

Don’t get too hung up on that….just enjoy the storm.  You’re/we are in pretty decent spots imo for this one.  It should be fun. 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

GFS a bit beefier and NE....I see a 'screw zone' showing up somewhere in SWCT, they always seems to find my area hopefully we can somehow miss it this time. Good luck to all

definitely don't want to end up in a subsidence area near one of the bands....

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

West of I-91 definitely the sweet spot for CT

I am going to LOVE tracking this one in real time. At this point we can put the models away, put the QPF maps away, and stop beating "QPF trends" with a hammer. None of that really matters because it's all about how the banding is going to evolve, where the banding traverses, and whether we see multiple or even several bands. So it all comes down to the evolution of the mid-level with respect to frontogenesis and the 700mb warm front. 

This one is going to have major surprises and there is no way to pin those down, even at this time frame. You may see a scenario where you have a narrow swath of 6-7" and you go 10-15 miles on either side of this swath and totals are only 2-3". There is just no way to portray this on a map so the best you can probably do is a larger range and understand there is an equal chance of ending up on the lower range (perhaps even an inch or two below) as there is of ending up towards the higher range. 

With this I don't think I'll make any changes to my map from yesterday (don't even have time anyways). If anything I would probably adjust the boundaries of the totals maybe but I can't see adding in like an area of 6-9 or 6-10". Not sure how widespread that will be and that is going to happen where the best banding is. Other than this I think its definitely a good 4-7" for everyone but there will be reports as low as 3-4".

[SouthCoastMA]

there were enough red flags (dry air, vort source region, etc) from several good Mets here to never get me excited of more than 1 or 2" in Eastern MA outside of any additional ocean enhancement - which could still produce a few bonus inches in spots along N plym county, and maybe an extra inch or 2" here if lucky. 

[TheSnowman]

24 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

How is EVER single map this winter, With storms in now 4 Different Directions, a Northeast RI Screwer?  Every.  One.  EVERY one.  

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, TheSnowman said:

How is EVER single map this winter, With storms in now 4 Different Directions, a Northeast RI Screwer?  Every.  One.  EVERY one.  

You and Ray need to move. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Bristol-Oxford-New Milford triangle type jack

[weatherwiz]

Not sure if this means much but I don't think the dewpoints were as low as modeled, we still have quite the dewpoint depression but maybe this will help to saturate more quickly?

But we can already start watching everything evolve in real time. Pretty strong surge of WAA at 700mb just to our west

and we have our established zone of 700mb fronto 

Two things we're going to want to watch through the afternoon are

1. How strong does the WAA remain 

2. How quickly/when does it begin to weaken?

But this look right now is certainly promising for western areas 

[TalcottWx]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Bristol-Oxford-New Milford triangle type jack

West Simsbury-Weatogue-Tariffville.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, TalcottWx said:

West Simsbury-Weatogue-Tariffville.

Nobody knows where any of those "towns" are...

[Fozz]

10 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

How is EVER single map this winter, With storms in now 4 Different Directions, a Northeast RI Screwer?  Every.  One.  EVERY one.  

It’s not a screw job if there’s less to your east. 2” > a mere coating

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

West Simsbury-Weatogue-Tariffville.

Southington too…don’t leave us out.

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Nobody knows where any of those "towns" are...

It's my town limits, hehe

[40/70 Benchmark]

Final

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/final-call-for-saturday-snows.html