Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[sussexcountyobs]

Clear. 15.8F

[TriPol]

23 in the Bronx. About 12 hours 'til showtime.

[Snowlover11]

6z NAM

&

Latest HRRR

[nightknights]

Sure would like to see a 25-50 mile  slide south

[eduggs]

The 6z HRRR and esp NAM should concern snow lovers from NYC south and west. The surface and mid-level low centers continue to tick further northeast. That's getting heavy snow into SVT now, and even BOS on the NAM. That's a yellow caution flag at minimum.

On the other hand, the 6z RGEM held steady or even ticked a hair south and wetter locally.

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The 6z HRRR and esp NAM should concern snow lovers from NYC south and west. The surface and mid-level low centers continue to tick further northeast. That's getting heavy snow into SVT now, and even BOS on the NAM. That's a yellow caution flag at minimum.

On the other hand, the 6z RGEM held steady or even ticked a hair south and wetter locally.

GFS also held its ground 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

GFS also held its ground 

it went south a little

[EasternLI]

[eduggs]

ICON looks slightly better than 0z. GFS and RRFS look very similar to their previous runs. All solid for most of the area! Gotta watch the radar, obs, and HRRR today to see if the northeast shift is real or not.

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The 6z HRRR and esp NAM should concern snow lovers from NYC south and west. The surface and mid-level low centers continue to tick further northeast. That's getting heavy snow into SVT now, and even BOS on the NAM. That's a yellow caution flag at minimum.

On the other hand, the 6z RGEM held steady or even ticked a hair south and wetter locally.

Just given the cold dense dry air in place I would give a lot more credence to the GFS/RGEM than the northern models. 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The 6z HRRR and esp NAM should concern snow lovers from NYC south and west. The surface and mid-level low centers continue to tick further northeast. That's getting heavy snow into SVT now, and even BOS on the NAM. That's a yellow caution flag at minimum.

On the other hand, the 6z RGEM held steady or even ticked a hair south and wetter locally.

If near warning snow is making it to Boston, a chunk of what my backyard gets even will likely be sleet. I know other models are colder but we’ve seen them verify too cold in these type events. It’s clipper like but behaving like a SWFE with overrunning into cold air. Like that or not, take what you will but historically SWFE is not good for NYC. It’s not your typical SWFE for sure but these overrunning deals so often pull the rug out by trending north at the end. We’re at the point where we just have to see what happens. Hopefully we get good precip that doesn’t shoot over way NE and we’re not waiting for hours in the city as it warms in the mid levels.