Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[EastonSN+]

[Nibor]

17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Hopefully BGM can fight off mixing. Probably a good sign down here if they can stay all snow. Further west around Elmira looks like they’re fighting back and forth. 

It's a battle.

[BoulderWX]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Keeps reducing to talks to our area but I’ll gladly take the 4.5” verbatim 

[ForestHillWx]

If it means anything, I just watched 10-12 power company trucks head southbound on 206 from Chester. Perhaps gearing up for repairs due to ice accretion south of me? 

[donsutherland1]

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

LoL Nam

For fun, let's compare the 18z NAM with the NWS for select locations that provide snowfall reports:

18z NAM:

NWS Forecast:

I will be looking at the other 18z guidance. For now, I still think a general 4"-8" snowfall is likely in and around New York City (including all of the above locations).

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Keeps reducing to talks to our area but I’ll gladly take the 4.5” verbatim 

It's overshooting the main warm advection snow further and further NE so we deal with subsidence. Just have to see what happens at this point. 

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

For fun, let's compare the 18z NAM with the NWS for select locations that provide snowfall reports:

18z NAM:

NWS Forecast:

I will be looking at the other 18z guidance. For now, I still think a general 4"-8" snowfall is likely in and around New York City (including all of the above locations).

Now do the HRRRR

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

2 to 7 is a large range for CPK.

It's because they don't know who's measuring tonight. Or better yet not measuring.

[donsutherland1]

26 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Now do the HRRRR

I'll do the 18z HRRR, too. I think that model is often cold-biased, but let's see how it does.

18z HRRR.

I will also compare the 18z NAM and 18z HRRR.

My point estimates:

Bridgeport: 8.0"
Islip: 7.9"
New York City (Central Park): 5.8"
Newark: 4.8"

[The 4 Seasons]

Final snowfall forecast from us for the Tri-State Area. I know a lot in here won't like this but we did cut back for in and around the city and NNJ. There were several reasons for this. 

• H6-8 averaged FGEN favors and area from LHV into Connecticut and Long Island, some variance with models but most have significant banding in this area
• Within this band Bufkit looks like snow growth may reach 15:1 or higher for a period of about 2-3 hours outside of this band it looks closer to 10:1
• QPF amounts have cut back for NNJ and into the City
• Mixing possible/less consolidated snowfall banding the farther south you go

With all that said we didn't change it too much just lowered from 4-8 to 3-6" and went 1-3" into Middlesex and Somerset counties and south. Let me know what your snowfall totals are after the event is complete and we'll see how we do...thanks everyone. @Sey-Mour Snow

 

[BoulderWX]

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Final snowfall forecast from us for the Tri-State Area. I know a lot in here won't like this but we did cut back for in and around the city and NNJ. There were several reasons for this. 

• H6-8 averaged FGEN favors and area from LHV into Connecticut and Long Island, some variance with models but most have significant banding in this area
• Within this band Bufkit looks like snow growth may reach 15:1 or higher for a period of about 2-3 hours outside of this band it looks closer to 10:1
• QPF amounts have cut back for NNJ and into the City
• Mixing possible/less consolidated snowfall banding the farther south you go

With all that said we didn't change it too much just lowered from 4-8 to 3-6" and went 1-3" into Middlesex and Somerset counties and south. Let me know what your snowfall totals are after the event is complete and we'll see how we do...thanks everyone. @Sey-Mour Snow

 

Great map and explanation; aligned with this

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Final snowfall forecast from us for the Tri-State Area. I know a lot in here won't like this but we did cut back for in and around the city and NNJ. There were several reasons for this. 

• H6-8 averaged FGEN favors and area from LHV into Connecticut and Long Island, some variance with models but most have significant banding in this area
• Within this band Bufkit looks like snow growth may reach 15:1 or higher for a period of about 2-3 hours outside of this band it looks closer to 10:1
• QPF amounts have cut back for NNJ and into the City
• Mixing possible/less consolidated snowfall banding the farther south you go

With all that said we didn't change it too much just lowered from 4-8 to 3-6" and went 1-3" into Middlesex and Somerset counties and south. Let me know what your snowfall totals are after the event is complete and we'll see how we do...thanks everyone. @Sey-Mour Snow

 

Thanks. Still a respectable event for most and about what I'm thinking. Those are definitely my two "what can go wrongs"-the mid level warmth and overshooting warm advection snow leaving people south of it in a dryslot or light precip. HRRR has been pushing that further and further NE all day. Guess that's to be expected with the 700mb low hanging on so long. Hopefully it'll verify south a little and the wetter models like the GFS have a clue.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Yanksfan said:

Meh. Lately New Jersey issues a state of emergency if someone farts in the wind.

and there should be. we've had two fatalities at my parkway exit in a week. i see accidents every freakin day on route one and 287. this is without bad weather. frankly, driving in nj IS a state of emergency....for all of us. texting has killed us.

[weatherpruf]

24 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

NJ is a state of emergency all day every day 24 7 365

it certainly was at shop rite just now.....

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

way to piss in our cornflakes...1-3? that's not a wsw...

You're in far Northern Middlesex i barely have you in the 3-6" range, honestly it could have been a little further south 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

You're in far Northern Middlesex i barely have you in the 3-6" range, honestly it could have been a little further south 

perhaps i came off harsh, in retrospect....who knows exactly where the mix sets up and for how long. locals have us 6-10, but we have struggled in recent years to top 5-6, except for one anomaly in feb 24. what people here are hearing is confusing....because we get mostly nyc radio....everything from biggest storm in 4 years to sleet and drizzle.....and all of those things can be true.

[Stormlover74]

Please rgem be right

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Please rgem be right

Where are you located? I want it to be right too lol

[Stormlover74]

Just now, BoulderWX said:

Where are you located? I want it to be right too lol

Plainfield 

[BxEngine]

Next political post is an outright ban. This is a weather forum. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

Radar filling in nicely and looking good but nothing hitting the ground by me yet,,,,,New City Rockland County checking in,,,,,,,that is all

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

LoL Nam

Doesn't seem funny to me. Neither does the matching radar.

[steve392]

Radar says snow but eyes say virga. Nothing falling in little ferry. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Doesn't seem funny to me. Neither does the matching radar.

Its way too north compared to other models.

[Superstorm]

Close here in Montvale.




.

[eduggs]

It's a great looking radar for Albany. I would be pretty excited being up there right now (and they're not typically a snowy location). Should be heavy snow for several hours with great ratios. Major event incoming for them.

[Stormlover74]

[Superstorm]

Close here in Montvale.




.

And now first flakes


.

[MANDA]

[Tatamy]

Moderate Sleet.  25/12.  Per radar this sleet is moving rapidly eastwards.