Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[MJO812]

Gfs is coming in south of 12z

[MJO812]

Gfs is 6-10 for NYC

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is coming in south of 12z

Best run yet verbatim fo mby… I really need to stop looking. It will be what it is, most likely 3-6” fo many 

[David-LI]

[MJO812]

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

DT

as useless as steve d....and crappy for my area anyway

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is 6-10 for NYC

Who is a weenie to believe ?  anyone who is discounting the potential across north central NJ into NYC might bust IMO....

[the_other_guy]

15 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

That's probably denial speaking. I'm concerned and I'm 50 miles north of the city. 

Youre crazy then. Im 20 north and have 0 concerns. Zero. these guys on here are all talking themselves into a nut job mode. A week out they were convinced. 24 hours out with a snowstorm on the way they cant sign on the line. Every storm and its crazy.

 

You mark my words the biggest cash in tomorrow is going to be around 287. But all get something

[wishcast_hater]

So one model has a crazy run and it’s suicide watch? Unbelievable.


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[David-LI]

GFS soundings show no mixing or warm nose issues at all. Entire column is below freezing,  higher kuchera ratios are possible here

[Blizzardo]

I'll buy that GFS run for a dollar... Hell I'd pay a hundred...

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

GFS soundings show no mixing or warm nose issues at all. Entire column is below freezing,  higher Kuchera ratios are possible here

 

it ain't cnj without some sleet i tell ya....

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Who is a weenie to believe ?  anyone who is discounting the potential across north central NJ into NYC might bust IMO....

Gfs is alone with the 6" line that far south. It has been consistent though.  Generally its not going to pick up on that warm nose though 

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, David-LI said:

GFS soundings show no mixing or warm nose issues at all. Entire column is below freezing,  higher kuchera ratios are possible here

Agreed. People on here are driving themselves insane. Central Jersey will mix. Everyone else should be good 

[winterwarlock]

Lol the gfs love when its almost always derided is too funny

[psv88]

Just now, winterwarlock said:

Lol the gfs love when its almost always derided is too funny

It hasn’t wavered 

[mob1]

RAP

[Tatamy]

11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Agreed. People on here are driving themselves insane. Central Jersey will mix. Everyone else should be good 

Try forecasting for where I live.  NAM says nada and the GFS / RAP 21z says 9”.  I am still going for the under.

[WeatherGeek2025]

nam starts correcting south at 0z watch

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

20 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Youre crazy then. Im 20 north and have 0 concerns. Zero. these guys on here are all talking themselves into a nut job mode. A week out they were convinced. 24 hours out with a snowstorm on the way they cant sign on the line. Every storm and its crazy.

 

You mark my words the biggest cash in tomorrow is going to be around 287. But all get something

I'm concerned I can mix or change to sleet and cut down my totals from 8-10 to six. To say you know where the sleet line ends up or far it travels is plain stupidity. Merry Christmas 

[Blizzardo]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

nam starts correcting south at 0z watch

It's gonna show the classic  8-12 ... And we get NAMd! 

[North and West]

So one model has a crazy run and it’s suicide watch? Unbelievable.


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[wishcast_hater]

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Definitely not first time.


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[SnowGoose69]

I still think NYC ends up with a solid period of sleet with this.  We're seeing the typical correction back south now we often see at this range but then inside the final 18-24 ticks back to the N tend to occur once again and sometimes verification still ends up even further N by 15-20 miles on what your game time start guidance has.   There will likely be 2 big time areas who get smashed here.  One will be the typical just NE of the changeover which might run from like CNTRL LI NW up through Fairfield Co and roughly SWF/POU.  The 2nd will be a frontogenesis/dry air subsidence induced area somewhere in ERN CT probably up into SRN-CNTRL MASS.    Overall the good news is the 3K does not agree with the 12K but given where the RGEM has been consistently and the 3K at 18Z I like a 30 or so mile shift to the NE on this roughly.  I am in Flagstaff so I'll be missing the whole thing.

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I still think NYC ends up with a solid period of sleet with this.  We're seeing the typical correction back south now we often see at this range but then inside the final 18-24 ticks back to the N tend to occur once again and sometimes verification still ends up even further N by 15-20 miles on what your game time start guidance has.   There will likely be 2 big time areas who get smashed here.  One will be the typical just NE of the changeover which might run from like CNTRL LI NW up through Fairfield Co and roughly SWF/POU.  The 2nd will be a frontogenesis/dry air subsidence induced area somewhere in ERN CT probably up into SRN-CNTRL MASS.    Overall the good news is the 3K does not agree with the 12K but given where the RGEM has been consistently and the 3K at 18Z I like a 30 or so mile shift to the NE on this roughly.  I am in Flagstaff so I'll be missing the whole thing.

Your in the Forky camp.

[NEG NAO]

[Roger Smith]

This might be the first time dew points above 60 in KY are recorded on a day before a winter storm hits NYC but those dews are not even going to reach se VA, if the GFS scenario is correct the low that forms takes all day to cross Ohio and is slowly consumed by the attempt to push the cold air back, eventually it just reforms off the southern Delmarva and continues east from there. 

In this kind of setup I don't see a lot of potential for guidance to bust on the mild side, I think there might be a chance it busts on the cold side further south and sleet mixes for a while in c NJ then it goes back to all snow there too. 

NYC will be in the vicinity of 534-540 dm thickness during the bulk of the event, often that is rather marginal for temps but I note that right now, the air mass pushing southwest has an average T/Td of 20/10 under that portion of its outflow (approx upper MI across L Huron into sw ON) and the surface feed is even colder from upstate NY so by morning I would not be surprised to find temps in n NJ and NYC metro near or a little below 20 F. And there will be quite limited warming before precip arrives. I bet there will be numerous comments posted tomorrow just before onset along the lines of "it is much colder than I was expecting" and the result will be precip boundaries further southwest than a lot of the guidance is showing. So in other words the bust will be opposite to what a lot of people are expecting the bust to be. Would be comfortable with 5-8 inches generally and 10-15 local banding maxima. There again those bands could be intense further south than some are expecting. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

24 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

It's gonna show the classic  8-12 ... And we get NAMd! 

and the anti 's will say it's wrong lol

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

This might be the first time dew points above 60 in KY are recorded on a day before a winter storm hits NYC but those dews are not even going to reach se VA, if the GFS scenario is correct the low that forms takes all day to cross Ohio and is slowly consumed by the attempt to push the cold air back, eventually it just reforms off the southern Delmarva and continues east from there. 

In this kind of setup I don't see a lot of potential for guidance to bust on the mild side, I think there might be a chance it busts on the cold side further south and sleet mixes for a while in c NJ then it goes back to all snow there too. 

NYC will be in the vicinity of 534-540 dm thickness during the bulk of the event, often that is rather marginal for temps but I note that right now, the air mass pushing southwest has an average T/Td of 20/10 under that portion of its outflow (approx upper MI across L Huron into sw ON) and the surface feed is even colder from upstate NY so by morning I would not be surprised to find temps in n NJ and NYC metro near or a little below 20 F. And there will be quite limited warming before precip arrives. I bet there will be numerous comments posted tomorrow just before onset along the lines of "it is much colder than I was expecting" and the result will be precip boundaries further southwest than a lot of the guidance is showing. So in other words the bust will be opposite to what a lot of people are expecting the bust to be. Would be comfortable with 5-8 inches generally and 10-15 local banding maxima. There again those bands could be intense further south than some are expecting. 

2/7/94 was insanely mild down in the TN Valley/SE.  ATL I believe hit 80 that day...might be closest match but February is a different story than Dec.  Its way easier for those places to get that warm in early February than late Dec

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

This might be the first time dew points above 60 in KY are recorded on a day before a winter storm hits NYC but those dews are not even going to reach se VA, if the GFS scenario is correct the low that forms takes all day to cross Ohio and is slowly consumed by the attempt to push the cold air back, eventually it just reforms off the southern Delmarva and continues east from there. 

In this kind of setup I don't see a lot of potential for guidance to bust on the mild side, I think there might be a chance it busts on the cold side further south and sleet mixes for a while in c NJ then it goes back to all snow there too. 

NYC will be in the vicinity of 534-540 dm thickness during the bulk of the event, often that is rather marginal for temps but I note that right now, the air mass pushing southwest has an average T/Td of 20/10 under that portion of its outflow (approx upper MI across L Huron into sw ON) and the surface feed is even colder from upstate NY so by morning I would not be surprised to find temps in n NJ and NYC metro near or a little below 20 F. And there will be quite limited warming before precip arrives. I bet there will be numerous comments posted tomorrow just before onset along the lines of "it is much colder than I was expecting" and the result will be precip boundaries further southwest than a lot of the guidance is showing. So in other words the bust will be opposite to what a lot of people are expecting the bust to be. Would be comfortable with 5-8 inches generally and 10-15 local banding maxima. There again those bands could be intense further south than some are expecting. 

I think it was a mistake that Mt. Holly lowered its Winter Storm Watch to an Advisory in North Central NJ - for one it sends the wrong message to the public.......many will think the storm is no big deal and start traveling when they should have stayed home....