Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[Krs4Lfe]

18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You'll end up as always here with someone on the far NE edge getting smoked while what you thought would be a jackpot zone gets less than forecast and places SW of that zone doing as well as was expected.  You always sort of want to be 20-40 miles NW/N/NE of where at 24 hours out the biggest snows are likely because often times the zone expected to do best gets fronto/banding screwed by an area to their N.

Reminds me of the 2/17/24 storm (I think that was the date?) where the heaviest snows were modeled to be near Philly, but even Staten Island and south queens got 6+ with central NJ getting up to 12”. These bands always move further north than expected. Probably wouldn’t want to be in the bullseye a few days out 

[NorthShoreWx]

Haven't dug into any soundings, but I suspect near the northeast edge of the heavy band will do quite well with ratios.  Once you get away from the good lift, the cold won't do much for ratios.

[MJO812]

Euro AI

[steve392]

I've got an 16 month old boxer, so it gets no easier when they're old?? 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Euro AI

Fantastic, been very steady.  Breathing room on all sides for ny metro. Hopefully it’s right!

[MJO812]

Euro slightly colder

[snywx]

3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Fantastic, been very steady.  Breathing room on all sides for ny metro. Hopefully it’s right!

WSWs should be going up for all of Upton's CWA this evening. Maybe the exception being E Suffolk 

[BoulderWX]

Thinking 3-6” is a good bet for most of the NYC metro. Really surprised with the model agreement event with the general placement on the heaviest axis

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Thinking 3-6” is a good bet for most of the NYC metro. Really surprised with the model agreement event with the general placement on the heaviest axis

do we have consensus here? it seems like a 4-8 inch snow is on the table if we get these good ratios we could be looking at 6-10 for the city

[weathermedic]

NYC Emergency Management Office just sent this out:

New York City Emergency Plan Information:
Plan: Winter Weather Emergency Plan
Status Change: Activated
Effective As Of: 12-26-2025 08:00
Conditions:  Snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches

[mob1]

[Krs4Lfe]

8 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Thinking 3-6” is a good bet for most of the NYC metro. Really surprised with the model agreement event with the general placement on the heaviest axis

Yeah it hasn't waffled around at all over the past 48+ hours or so. Only thing holding back higher snow totals is the speed. This thing is really hauling. In and out in about 8 hours or so. So yeah 3-6" is a good bet

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Great map, I think this argues for 4-8 or 6-10 or the lower Hudson valley and 3-6 for nyc. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Soundings around HPN look really good during the late evening, should be decent ratios. 

[Stormlover74]

Craig Allen

I'd probably extend the 6" area southeast

[forkyfork]

god this place is weenie central

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Craig Allen

I'd probably extend the 6" area southeast

It was nice seeing Craig on tv last night. We don't get to see him too often anymore. Anyway I like a 4 to 7 forecast for our area right now. 

[BoulderWX]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

god this place is weenie central

For once it’s actually pretty level. No crazy bittercasting, arguing or over hyping. Most people understand we have a nice 3-6 or maybe 4-8 type storm

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Kuchera is higher

[MJO812]

Winter storm watch for NYC. 4-8 inches

[TriPol]

5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

god this place is weenie central

It's like it's Christmas or something...

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

For once it’s actually pretty level. No crazy bittercasting, arguing or over hyping. Most people understand we have a nice 3-6 or maybe 4-8 type storm

The weenie givers have been quiet

[Snowlover11]

Winter storm watch 4-8”

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
107 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex- Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland- Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)- Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk- Southwest Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens- Southern Nassau- 107 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 8 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions may impact the Friday evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

[Stormlover74]

Yes please

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Winter storm watch for NYC. 4-8 inches

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
107 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

CTZ005-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078-080-176>179-250215-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0004.251226T2100Z-251227T1800Z/
Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Western Passaic-Eastern
Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-
Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Southwest Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
107 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and
  8 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey,
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions may impact the Friday evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/nyc

[wthrmn654]

Nothing for me lol

[forkyfork]

4 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

For once it’s actually pretty level. No crazy bittercasting, arguing or over hyping. Most people understand we have a nice 3-6 or maybe 4-8 type storm

not a single sounding posted in this thread. lots of kuchera maps though 

[BoulderWX]

WSW for 5-8” for Morris County

[SnowGoose69]

Surprised they left E Suffolk out but these days they rarely put areas in they are not highly confident reach 6 or will have both snow/mixed precip

[Brian5671]

Just now, forkyfork said:

not a single sounding posted in this thread. lots of kuchera maps though 

let's hear your thoughts instead of complaining about people on a weather board being excited for some snow