White Christmas Miracle? December 23-24th

[Sey-Mour Snow]

LOL the replacement for NAM and HRRR: RRFS is a toaster bath for most of this forum.. It ticked SW another 35 miles from 12z.. It has 1-3" for SWCT down to central jersey and shutouts everyone else.. RRFS did really good with the last storm, so it has my attention.. It will have to earn our respect though..

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

LOL the replacement for NAM and HRRR: RRFS is a toaster bath for most of this forum.. It ticked SW another 35 miles from 12z.. It has 1-3" for SWCT down to central jersey and shutouts everyone else.. RRFS did really good with the last storm, so it has my attention.. It will have to earn our respect though..

I have not followed it beyond 48-60 with storms so far.  I do know its had a bias of being too warm aloft, so basically the reverse of what the HRRR bias is

[George001]

3 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I was cautiously optimistic this morning thst we may actually be moving toward a halfway decent event, and then of course the euro comes out and looks mediocre.

itll nail this after being horrible the past two events 

This is a Maine storm. 

[ineedsnow]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

LOL the replacement for NAM and HRRR: RRFS is a toaster bath for most of this forum.. It ticked SW another 35 miles from 12z.. It has 1-3" for SWCT down to central jersey and shutouts everyone else.. RRFS did really good with the last storm, so it has my attention.. It will have to earn our respect though..

18z ICON shifted south also

[Sey-Mour Snow]

I kind of agree with Taunton on this one.. We are going to need 2"+ to have any chance at a White Christmas. Temps look to stay between 33-38 across SNE for about 30 hours between 15z Tuesday and 21z Wednesday, before tanking Wednesday after sunset. Anything under an inch will probably melt. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z ICON shifted south also

Icon is weird.. Shafts everyone NW of SWCT on Tuesday then gets everyone that missed out Tuesday overnight Tuesday into Christmas Eve with 1-3"

[Sey-Mour Snow]

RGEM went a tad north.. Guidance diverging a bit .. still 72 hours out ..

[moneypitmike]

The NAM covers the grass for 12 of us.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Woof.. GFS with the same big jump SW as ICON and RRFS .. has some currier and ives type stuff late Tuesday into Wednesday. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I kind of agree with Taunton on this one.. We are going to need 2"+ to have any chance at a White Christmas. Temps look to stay between 33-38 across SNE for about 30 hours between 15z Tuesday and 21z Wednesday, before tanking Wednesday after sunset. Anything under an inch will probably melt. 

Yeah I was going to reply to Scott earlier, probably going to need 3” to verify a white Christmas. 2” will be patches come Thursday morning

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Woof.. GFS with the same big jump SW as ICON and RRFS

 

Weaker too. Probably the biggest issue 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Woof.. GFS with the same big jump SW as ICON and RRFS .. has some currier and ives type stuff late Tuesday into Wednesday. 

Nao is negative so these south shifts isnt surprising.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

18z gfs looks comically different than 12z. 
 

At 00z Wednesday, 12z had moderate to heavy snow over most of ma. At 18z it’s gone

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

He’s a F’n mess. Unreal. 

Placing yourself in someone else’s personal mental state is a science unto itself. This place has been an outlet and a hindrance to my own mental health. I know where TB12 is and I feel his pain. I’m pulling hard for the GFS to be the outcome.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

18z AIGFS also a good bump SW.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

18z AIGFS also a good bump SW.

Just line me up with the norlun after a couple. 

[Spanks45]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nao is negative so these south shifts isnt surprising.

Maybe it will help out with the 26th as well....wishful thinking?

Lets just get a regionwide 2-4 and hope for clouds on Christmas eve to maintain the 'pack' for Christmas

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

Maybe it will help out with the 26th as well....wishful thinking?

Lets just get a regionwide 2-4 and hope for clouds on Christmas eve to maintain the 'pack' for Christmas

GFS is colder again, would like to keep that trend going .. euro is like 5 degrees warmer Tuesday afternoon and 10 degrees warmer Tuesday night 

[Baroclinic Zone]

[Baroclinic Zone]

We watch, we monitor. No need to jump. No negatives in the grand scheme today since this AM. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1” of snow will last everywhere.. even coasts . I had 1/4” .. at most 1/2” last night that lasted today. Wet snow and low sun angle FTW . Precisely why you want snow now and not Morch . A day in the 30’s little to nothing melts 

https://imgur.com/a/dm7YoFS#KIRP4vD

[Torch Tiger]

Lol

[Sey-Mour Snow]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1” of snow will last everywhere.. even coasts . I had 1/4” .. at most 1/2” last night that lasted today. Wet snow and low sun angle FTW . Precisely why you want snow now and not Morch . A day in the 30’s little to nothing melts 

https://imgur.com/a/dm7YoFS#KIRP4vD

Your high was 31 today with a dry NW flow... There is potential for upper 30s and low 40s late Tuesday and Wednesday.  The GFS is much colder than EURO , let's hope the colder trends continue and that we max out 32-36 instead.. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Your high was 31 today with a dry NW flow... There is potential for upper 30s and low 40s late Tuesday and Wednesday with a southerly flow 

Even if you hit 38 -40 there with 1-2” it will be white . Low dews . Low sun . We all had 38-44 prior to the screamer and everyone still had pack 

[dendrite]

30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1” of snow will last everywhere.. even coasts . I had 1/4” .. at most 1/2” last night that lasted today. Wet snow and low sun angle FTW . Precisely why you want snow now and not Morch . A day in the 30’s little to nothing melts 

https://imgur.com/a/dm7YoFS#KIRP4vD

Wow what a winter.

[dendrite]

Imagine being a snow and Cowboys fan and having to look at that ugly Giants inflatable and pack when you look out your front window. 

[SouthCoastMA]

2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 

I mean less than an inch of snow is probably going to vaporize on Wednesday anyway, unless it’s 5 degrees, which it won’t be.

Im truly serious, the euro depiction is a nuisance here.

Hell, they salted pretty much dry roads last night. Tired of driving around with hundreds of tons of salt on the road and a quarter of an inch of snow 

assumed you were within the 1" shade. next run will be different anyway 

[Baroclinic Zone]

35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1” of snow will last everywhere.. even coasts . I had 1/4” .. at most 1/2” last night that lasted today. Wet snow and low sun angle FTW . Precisely why you want snow now and not Morch . A day in the 30’s little to nothing melts 

https://imgur.com/a/dm7YoFS#KIRP4vD

Nothing torks me off more than someone parking in the street in a residential subdivision. Reeks of inadequacies.