White Christmas Miracle? December 23-24th

[dryslot]

12z HRRR is extremely bullish.

 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z HRRR is extremely bullish.

 

Bumped NE. I liked 6z better.

But there will probably be more nowcasting than normal with this. 

[dryslot]

Just now, dendrite said:

Bumped NE. I liked 6z better.

But there will probably be more nowcasting than normal with this. 

I thought that all along with this that’s what makes me hesitant until I really see where that band is going to set up

[Spanks45]

1" so far, still coming down pretty well....temp 29.8⁰

[Damage In Tolland]

Dendy’s size getting bigger as more forcing moves in from west . 30.8

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

1" so far, still coming down pretty well....temp 29.8⁰

See. Very nice. Your little hole doing ok. Enjoy. Looks beautiful. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I thought that all along with this that’s what makes me hesitant until I really see where that band is going to set up

This process has interested me since college when we 3 day tripped skiing Maine and were blasted by an unforeseen Norlun. The climo favored spot in the entire country for Norlun is your area. I bet you see near 10

[Damage In Tolland]

I’d be willing to bet there’s a band of 12-15” along the Maine coast 

[dryslot]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

This process has interested me since college when we 3 day tripped skiing Maine and were blasted by an unforeseen Norlun. The climo favored spot in the entire country for Norlun is your area. I bet you see near 10

On FB i have 6-10" and over yonder as well.

[mreaves]

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Pounding massive flakes 1.3”

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Pounding massive flakes 1.3”

Nice .. send that NE later this morning 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Light snow has commenced in Greenfield. 29°.

[ORH_wxman]

12z NAM came in decently healthier for this afternoon. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z NAM came in decently healthier for this afternoon. 

Just noticed that. Walk off HR. Bottom 9

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z NAM came in decently healthier for this afternoon. 

Lol…maybe we should toss all these models, and just nowcast.  

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Just noticed that. Walk off HR. Bottom 9

Not sold yet though. Hrrr still hideous. Rap still hideous. 

[The 4 Seasons]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z NAM came in decently healthier for this afternoon. 

yeah, looks absolutely nothing like the 12Z HRRR

[512high]

Cloudy, few breaks, 30F

[ORH_wxman]

3k NAM being pretty healthy too gives some hope though that the 12k isn’t on crack. Both NAMs show the initial WAA dying out midday east of ORH, but it regenerates a very healthy precip shield as the forcing from the northwest (that gives NNE most of their snow outside the norlun) punches in. So if they are right, we’d see a lot of blossoming precip on radar this afternoon. Esp after about 2-3pm. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

yeah, looks absolutely nothing like the 12Z HRRR

Maybe it’s just me..but the HRRR hasn’t been very good imo around here. Thing jumps all over the place. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Maybe it’s just me..but the HRRR hasn’t been very good imo around here. Thing jumps all over the place. 

Its been awful up here, That's why i don't place much stock in other then a mention.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

3k NAM being pretty healthy too gives some hope though that the 12k isn’t on crack. Both NAMs show the initial WAA dying out midday east of ORH, but it regenerates a very healthy precip shield as the forcing from the northwest (that gives NNE most of their snow outside the norlun) punches in. So if they are right, we’d see a lot of blossoming precip on radar this afternoon. Esp after about 2-3pm. 

HRRR is lost on this as with other guidance.  Earlier runs have me with 0.0" of snow at 9am, yet I have 1.3"

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

Make that .3" lol

This is definitely the most torturous type of storm. In between the initial fronto and an inverted trof with warm lower levels and shit snow growth. Tough solution. 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

3k NAM being pretty healthy too gives some hope though that the 12k isn’t on crack. Both NAMs show the initial WAA dying out midday east of ORH, but it regenerates a very healthy precip shield as the forcing from the northwest (that gives NNE most of their snow outside the norlun) punches in. So if they are right, we’d see a lot of blossoming precip on radar this afternoon. Esp after about 2-3pm. 

Is that for E MA primarily?

[jbenedet]

Better off taking the under 10:1 on ratios. 

I also don’t see how I eek out 0.25” qpf here but all the guidance showing it… 

On ratios - the risks are not BLtemp related but lift, weak snow growth, and scattered light precip. None of this bodes well to stack. 7:1 probably better hedge…

Unless you get into the IVT this should be the story in eastern New England sans Maine and the far interior of NH.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Better off taking the under 10:1 on ratios. 

I also don’t see how I eek out 0.25” qpf here but all the guidance showing it… 

On ratios - the risks are not BLtemp related but lift, weak snow growth, and scattered light precip. None of this bodes well to stack. 7:1 probably better hedge…

Unless you get into the IVT this should be the story in eastern New England sans Maine and the far interior or NH.

Snow growth and ratios are phenomenal here..  I do think the lift will weaken further NE unless in the IVT

[jbenedet]

The shit streak surprise in SNE tells me expect some forcing to be robbed with the part two “lead” of the clippah.

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Snow growth and ratios are phenomenal here..  I do think the lift will weaken further NE unless in the IVT

Yea not talking about that. Talking about later…

[FXWX]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

HRRR is lost on this as with other guidance.  Earlier runs have me with 0.0" of snow at 9am, yet I have 1.3"

Anything meaningful on road surfaces?