White Christmas Miracle? December 23-24th

[SouthCoastMA]

Euro tries to finger me an inch on Christmas eve like the GFS. Would be nice

[ariof]

13 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Damariscotta Destroyah

You don't really need to use the R here, but "Damariscotter Destroyah" if you pause long enough between the words.

[NW_of_GYX]

Ya models are going to struggle with the placement of the IVT but no reason not to favor the climo spots in the midcoast although I have seen jacks further west they are much rarer. Will be fun to watch moisture streaming off the gulf on radar wherever it sets up. 

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Ya models are going to struggle with the placement of the IVT but no reason not to favor the climo spots in the midcoast although I have seen jacks further west they are much rarer. Will be fun to watch moisture streaming off the gulf on radar wherever it sets up. 

The GFS and Euro are showing .90-1.35" qpf here, Ratios should be really high with this as well in the 12-15:1 range i think, These trough related set ups are generally good fluff producers.

[The 4 Seasons]

This is one of the most bizarre advisories i've ever seen. Winter Weather Advisory for sub-advisory snow. "up to two inches"

[NW_of_GYX]

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The GFS and Euro are showing .90-1.35" qpf here, Ratios should be really high with this as well in the 12-15:1 range i think, These trough related set ups are generally good fluff producers.

Ya the last one that really jacked my area was in February 2017? I think. Great ratios with that one iirc

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

This is one of the most bizarre advisories i've ever seen. Winter Weather Advisory for sub-advisory snow. "up to two inches"

Lol…they’re just covering the bases/their asses. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

48 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Euro tries to finger me an inch on Christmas eve like the GFS. Would be nice

Kinky

[dryslot]

11 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

This is one of the most bizarre advisories i've ever seen. Winter Weather Advisory for sub-advisory snow. "up to two inches"

NWS does this because of holiday travel to make folks aware.

[weatherwiz]

15 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

This is one of the most bizarre advisories i've ever seen. Winter Weather Advisory for sub-advisory snow. "up to two inches"

I think it also has to do with the timing plus the increased holiday travel...just a way to increase awareness 

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

NWS does this because of holiday travel to make folks aware.

yea thats what i figured. i've seen a few weird ones like this in the past, and i remember one in November one time that was sub-advisory 1-3" but they put one out because it was the first one of the season, and it was right at rush hour. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

yea thats what i figured. i've seen a few weird ones like this in the past, and i remember one in November one time that was sub-advisory 1-3" but they put one out because it was the first one of the season, and it was right at rush hour. 

Yes, The first ones of the season too is the other period that they will do this especially if it affects the commuting hours.

[moneypitmike]

Updated GYX map.  Fingers crossed.

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Updated GYX map.  Fingers crossed.

Pit2 is in a good spot for this i think.

[Lava Rock]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Pit2 is in a good spot for this i think.

I'd be happy with 5-8"

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

I'd be happy with 5-8"

Who wouldn’t be after what we’ve had the last 3-4 years. 

[tamarack]

43 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Ya the last one that really jacked my area was in February 2017? I think. Great ratios with that one iirc

Feb. 17 was a wonderful month, but if the event you've noted was the storm of 15-16, it was one of the most disappointed 6"+ snowfall in my memory, as it had been forecast as a much bigger dump.  On Feb 11 a forecast 1-3 turned into 8" of 30:1 feathers with single-digit temps.  Then 12-13 brought 21", bringing the pack to 47".  The morning of the 15th, with depth at 44", our forecast was 12-18 - I thought "easy 50s pack, maybe even 60".  As flakes began that afternoon, GYX chopped our forecast to 6-10, with the jack moving to west of Sebago.  That 6.2 was heavier, temps were milder, and it only raised the pack to 46".

My area (wherever I've lived) has been good at dodging IVT.  We did get a surprise 2.4" on 3/21/92, but PWM had 11.4" and parts of Kennebunkport 2 feet.

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

I'd be happy with 5-8"

I'd be happier if it was further up and in.

[weathafella]

1+ pretty much locks in a White Christmas.  Looks good for most.

[TheMainer]

I'll take my 3-5 inches and let the southern Maine guys have the fun, I think we're in a slightly better position as things play out in the longer term

[Lava Rock]

22 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'd be happier if it was further up and in.

But I know what you really mean

[The 4 Seasons]

27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Who wouldn’t be after what we’ve had the last 3-4 years. 

Here comes the cracked out NAM run, jacks SW CT and LHV. 

[weathafella]

NAM is hitting much of sne into NNE in the 18z run.

[ORH_wxman]

Def a better run than the last several paltry runs....it has been the low outlier, so good to see some convergence. 

[Spaizzo]

Here comes the cracked out NAM run, jacks SW CT and LHV. 

SOLD! I missed an almost an entire year (long story) and the winter before was nonexistent I’ll take it!


.

[NW_of_GYX]

28 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Feb. 17 was a wonderful month, but if the event you've noted was the storm of 15-16, it was one of the most disappointed 6"+ snowfall in my memory, as it had been forecast as a much bigger dump.  On Feb 11 a forecast 1-3 turned into 8" of 30:1 feathers with single-digit temps.  Then 12-13 brought 21", bringing the pack to 47".  The morning of the 15th, with depth at 44", our forecast was 12-18 - I thought "easy 50s pack, maybe even 60".  As flakes began that afternoon, GYX chopped our forecast to 6-10, with the jack moving to west of Sebago.  That 6.2 was heavier, temps were milder, and it only raised the pack to 46".

My area (wherever I've lived) has been good at dodging IVT.  We did get a surprise 2.4" on 3/21/92, but PWM had 11.4" and parts of Kennebunkport 2 feet.

Yes, that’s the event I was thinking of! Basically jack was right over my head in south Denmark where I was living at the time. I remember watching radar in awe as the GOM was deposited on my head. 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, Spaizzo said:

SOLD! I missed an almost an entire year (long story) and the winter before was nonexistent I’ll take it!


.

Last 3 were pretty much non-existent for our area. I Haven't cracked 20" since Winter 21-22. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

NAM is hitting much of sne into NNE in the 18z run.

Juicing up. 

[mahk_webstah]

Nam joins gfs?

[WinterWolf]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Last 3 were pretty much non-existent for our area. I Haven't cracked 20" since Winter 21-22. 

I did get a surprise 12-13” burger in Feb of 24…that’s been the highlight though.