White Christmas Miracle? December 23-24th

[Baroclinic Zone]

Im bringing my juju back for this one. Let’s talk about the shortwave traversing across the northern tier states and crossing the area on the 23rd. High pressure is overhead and we have a fresh antecedent airmass cold enough to support frozen precip. High pressure pushes south and we get that moist southerly return air just as system is moving in. Potential is there for advisory level snows for a broad area. Also seeing some potential for redevelopment or inverted trough as system pushes offshore.

[Ginx snewx]

Its beginning to look alot like Christmas 

Congrats Jeffafafafa to Dendrite and everyone else

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

If bringing my juju back for this one. Let’s talk about the shortwave traversing across the northern tier states and crossing the area on the 23rd. High pressure is overhead and we have a fresh antecedent airmass cold enough to support frozen precip. High pressure pushes south and we get that moist southerly return air just as system is moving in. Potential is there for advisory level snows for a broad area. Also seeing some potential for redevelopment or inverted trough as system pushes offshore.

You have “If bringing my juju back”…I think you mean “I’m” bringing my juju back…right? Correct that so the snow gods don’t punish us for poor grammar..please

[Fozz]

Yeah I just took a look at the guidance and consensus is growing on a nice 2-4” event.

And since it will be cold enough afterwards, that means we’d get a White Christmas.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You have “If bringing my juju back”…I think you mean “I’m” bringing my juju back…right? Correct that so the snow gods don’t punish us for poor grammar..please

I remember when people complained about the Juju word back on Eastern. Lol

There was no Grinch storm instead its a Christmas miracle. Festivus for the rest of us.

[CoastalWx]

I would like to see continued improvement on guidance and not a LBSW thing today. 6z moved towards it. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I would like to see continued improvement on guidance and not a LBSW thing today. 6z moved towards it. 

6z moved to a LBSW, or toward the better look? 

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

6z moved to a LBSW, or toward the better look? 

6z moved to a more widespread look.

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z moved to a more widespread look.

Ok, thanks Scott. 

[CoastalWx]

Looks like 12z Nam won’t be that great for SNE.

[dryslot]

Looking like a high end advisory or low end warning event up this way pair of 4’s on MOS Tues-Weds.

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like 12z Nam won’t be that great for SNE.

NAM at 72 hrs out…toss that into toilet. 

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

6z moved to a more widespread look.

The EPS and GEFS are nothing like the ops. 
 

All kinds of red flags on the 6z euro with a 1007 mb low near PWM on the 6z EPS and weaker from the prior run.

This is a weak low surrounded by surface highs, with no opportunity to amplify with the mid level flow compressing out of southeast Canada.

Shrediola.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

NAM at 72 hrs out…toss that into toilet. 

Yeah would not worry about that with how consistent most other models were at 00 and 06z.  Looks like it just organizes everything late.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The EPS and GEFS are nothing like the ops. 
 

All kinds of red flags on the 6z euro with a 1007 mb low near PWM on the 6z EPS and weaker from the prior run.

This is a weak low surrounded by surface highs, with no opportunity to amplify with the mid level flow compressing out of southeast Canada.

Shrediola.

Perfect!  We should expect a good storm now. Appreciate the take. 

[jbenedet]

There’s a late blooming miller b type distribution of qpf showing up on the ensemble guidance. That’s likely how this evolves…
 

A local max at points west of CT river, and then points east in Maine with the weak/late redevelopment. 
 

Very weak system overall. 

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Perfect!  We should expect a good storm now. Appreciate the take. 

lol “storm”. Yea go run with that to your friends. Tell them about the incoming storm. 
 

Moose fart is more like it.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

lol “storm”. Yea go run with that to your friends. Tell them about the incoming storm. 
 

Moose fart is more like it.

We’ll see. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

lol “storm”. Yea go run with that to your friends. Tell them about the incoming storm. 
 

Moose fart is more like it.

Who pisses in your Cheerios every day. 

[Snowcrazed71]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Perfect!  We should expect a good storm now. Appreciate the take. 

I know, again!!!

I know there are times when things are shitty and just not going the right way and it is what it is. But between Jbenedic and A few others, he always takes the model runs that show the worst outcome but never posts anything that shows better outcomes. It's not about wish casting, it's about being realistic and showing both ends of the spectrum. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Who pisses in your Cheerios every day. 

TBlizz. 

[MJO812]

Icon is great 

[ineedsnow]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon is great 

12z Reggie also looking good 

[ineedsnow]

12z ICON.also has a ice storm the day after Christmas 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Def not a big storm.  Just enough to give a picturesque look for most on here seems likely. 

[NorEastermass128]

The goal is to cover the grass. 

[SnowGoose69]

RRFS congrats NYC lol.  Would not trust it at this range though

[MJO812]

Gfs is nice for NYC north

Still snowing in sne 

[CoastalWx]

We take gfs 

[dendrite]

Op and AI gfs crank that inverted trough for E NH/M