12/14: Sunday funday? Will the south win again?

[winter_warlock]

12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I'm in SE Baltimore county. Not far from the bullseye.. glad I didn't buy the snowblower I was gonna get... I might have jinxed it lol

[Eskimo Joe]

Euro is great for I-95. Crashing temps, snow at night, it's a weekend. Money.

[nj2va]

18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

10:1? I thought you were a weenie 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

10:1? I thought you were a weenie 

I believe Kuchera is slightly worse lol

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

10:1? I thought you were a weenie 

Kuchie is so marginally better for some/worse for others I didn't think it was worth any further damage to my reputation by posting it, but by popular demand:

It's a nice run. I'm still honestly not super satisfied being on the SW end of this. Feels a bit like a heartbreaker. Would like another 50mi SW jump, not just to put me in the jackpot, but to add some fail insurance. Very little runway here

[dailylurker]

Lowlands special lol

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Kuchie is so marginally better for some/worse for others I didn't think it was worth any further damage to my reputation by posting it, but by popular demand:

It's a nice run. I'm still honestly not super satisfied being on the SW end of this. Feels a bit like a heartbreaker. Would like another 50mi SW jump, not just to put me in the jackpot, but to add some fail insurance. Very little runway here

Yup.  That's hanging in the back of my mind.  It's keeping me from being super pumped about any of this.  I'm in a weird space of happy, but ready to accept probably failure.

[JenkinsJinkies]

5 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Lowlands special lol

About time too.

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup.  That's hanging in the back of my mind.  It's keeping me from being super pumped about any of this.  I'm in a weird space of happy, but ready to accept probably failure.

Same.  If we get more than an inch, I would be super pleased

[nj2va]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Kuchie is so marginally better for some/worse for others I didn't think it was worth any further damage to my reputation by posting it, but by popular demand:

It's a nice run. I'm still honestly not super satisfied being on the SW end of this. Feels a bit like a heartbreaker. Would like another 50mi SW jump, not just to put me in the jackpot, but to add some fail insurance. Very little runway here

Yeah, I definitely hear you, another nudge SW would add more confidence but having the Euro basically hold+, is great.  We'll be at Deep Creek this weekend but rooting hard for DC.

[Chris78]

Just now, nj2va said:

Yeah, I definitely hear you, another nudge SW would add more confidence but having the Euro basically hold+, is great.  We'll be at Deep Creek this weekend but rooting hard for DC.

Coming out Sunday to ski.

Should be some great conditions 

Hoping they have some of the East ridge open by then.

[WxUSAF]

I’m totally good being 10-20mi north of the max at 36-48 hours 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m totally good being 10-20mi north of the max at 36-48 hours 

I was just thinking this. Max strip may verify slightly NW of what’s being modeled. 

[MN Transplant]

Everyone is appropriately focused on the precip chances, but the temperature trend is looking like it will be unusual.  The core of the cold sweeps in during the day Sunday and we are in deep winter by evening with temps somewhere around 20 and breezy conditions.  But then the airmass begins to moderate and we flatline overnight into Monday.  

[nj2va]

11 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Coming out Sunday to ski.

Should be some great conditions 

Hoping they have some of the East ridge open by then.

They're making snow on the East ridge, hopefully they can open a few by then (that would be the earliest in the last few years).  They upgraded their snow making technology in the off season so hopefully that helps too.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

Everyone is appropriately focused on the precip chances, but the temperature trend is looking like it will be unusual.  The core of the cold sweeps in during the day Sunday and we are in deep winter by evening with temps somewhere around 20 and breezy conditions.  But then the airmass begins to moderate and we flatline overnight into Monday.  

Giggity

[NorthArlington101]

It's probably past time to look at the EPS but this is notably more generous/widespread than 06z, fwiw.

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

They're making snow on the East ridge, hopefully they can open a few by then (that would be the earliest in the last few years).  They upgraded their snow making technology in the off season so hopefully that helps too.

I was reading about that.

I love Wisp. By far my favorite ski resort 

[H2O]

24 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup.  That's hanging in the back of my mind.  It's keeping me from being super pumped about any of this.  I'm in a weird space of happy, but ready to accept probably failure.

It might work out, it might not. I have 70/30 fail to win ratio. 
 

Until it starts we just won’t know

[WxUSAF]

Really nice 12z suite

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Really nice 12z suite

Call me old fashioned, but I love the 00z/12z runs during northern stream events because their have upper air data incorporated into them.

[NorthArlington101]

sorry one more EPS post - this is the median. While the ens are obviously less dispersive so close in, it's still nice to see they very strongly agree with the OP (as opposed to yesterday where the 3-5" 12z EURO run was an outlier of outliers) 

[H2O]

I’d love to see the precip expanded all the way to short pump to feel good about this one. If it did that then NE MD can get PUMMELED 

[Pityflakes]

12 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Everyone is appropriately focused on the precip chances, but the temperature trend is looking like it will be unusual.  The core of the cold sweeps in during the day Sunday and we are in deep winter by evening with temps somewhere around 20 and breezy conditions.  But then the airmass begins to moderate and we flatline overnight into Monday.  

Does anyone have a DCA sounding for precip onset time?  Is this a cold chasing precip situation?  Or are we expecting to wetbulb down pretty quick after precip starts?  Surface looks warm. 

[IUsedToHateCold]

Euro sticks the bullseye on me. It's about time. Bring it. 

I'm tired of Short Pump winning and we don't.

[yoda]

I know this is Mt. Holly... but definitely thought they'd wait one more model cycle

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
137 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

DEZ001-002-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012>027-PAZ070-071-101>106-
131000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0015.251214T0000Z-251214T1800Z/
New Castle-Kent-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Hunterdon-
Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-
Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-
Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern
Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Sandy Hook, Pottstown, Media, West
Chester, Camden, Morrisville, Pennsville, Wharton State Forest,
Jackson, Easton, New Brunswick, Freehold, Somerville,
Collegeville, Dover, Cape May Court House, Mount Holly, Honey
Brook, Glassboro, Perkasie, Hammonton, Norristown, Moorestown,
Lansdale, Ocean City, Millville, Oxford, Kennett Square,
Chalfont, Denton, Atlantic City, Centreville, Cherry Hill,
Chestertown, Flemington, Trenton, Philadelphia, Long Beach
Island, Wilmington, and Doylestown
137 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central and northern Delaware, northeast
  Maryland, central, northern, northwest, and southern New Jersey,
  and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

 

[TSSN+]

[T. August]

7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

NBM/SREF adjustments it looks like. Those are the only things that got drier to my knowledge.

[Eskimo Joe]

Sterling alluded to a "low end warning event" in their late morning AFD update?

Quote

With such a narrow banded feature, there's still a fair amount
of uncertainty with respect to how much precipitation will
ultimately fall. Precipitation could also potentially start as a
brief period of rain along the I-95 corridor before much colder
air rushes in later during the night behind an Arctic front. For
these reasons, a wide variety of potential solutions exists,
especially along the I-95 corridor. Further west, a high end-
advisory or low-end warning level snowfall appears likely.
Between the Allegheny Front and Blue Ridge lesser QPF amounts
are likely with all precipitation likely falling as snow. Most
solutions show a coating to two inches of snow in this area, but
as much as 4 inches could be possible in a high end scenario in
the Shenadoah Valley. Further east, around the I-95 corridor, 
the widest range of potential solutions exists. If most of the 
precipitation were to fall as rain, or the band of higher QPF 
were to shift northward out of the area, as little as a coating 
to an inch of snow could occur. Currently, we have 1-4 inches of
snow forecast as the most likely scenario to the east of the 
Blue Ridge. In a high end scenario, as much as 6 inches of snow 
could occur under the heaviest part of the band if the 
precipitation stays all snow.

Aside from the threat for snow early in the day, winds will pick
up substantially behind this arctic front by Sunday afternoon.
Expect wind gusts out of the northwest up to 30 mph, with gusts
closer to 45 mph on the ridgetops out west. Wind headlines
cannot be ruled out for the ridges during this timeframe as a
result. 

 

[stormtracker]

16 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

lol.  we get it.

We need a widespread storm tho