12/14: Sunday funday? Will the south win again?

[baltosquid]

Canadian has seemingly wanted to send it north this whole time save for some wavering last night/this morning so it would be quite the coup for it if we get F’d

[Maestrobjwa]

29 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Um, no? Most of us know, but watching areas well to the south cash in several times while T - .2" are what we have seen in the northern areas as the reality kinda blows.

 

I don't know why up here we would be "spoiled with this pattern". This pattern has been rather shite for many of us. Cold, dry, windy.  

We're a little outnumbered by the southies in this forum, lol

[Solution Man]

[Solution Man]

[T. August]

17 minutes ago, yoda said:

Help us Obi Euro, you're our only hope

Need it to double-down. Not to be dramatic but if it shifts north more than noise I think we are cooked. Besides the ICON the entirety of 12z has gone that way (some good some bad). Gonna end up a SEPA-NYC special.

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, T. August said:

Need it to double-down. Not to be dramatic but if it shifts north more than noise I think we are cooked. Besides the ICON the entirety of 12z has gone that way (some good some bad). Gonna end up a SEPA-NYC special.

Be dramatic.  This place is boring.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GEFS is a tick NE with the best stuff - that's my biggest worry for MBY... losing this to PHL-NYC

It's a 1-2" event. What exactly is the best stuff lol

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, CAPE said:

It's a 1-2" event. What exactly is the best stuff lol

2” as opposed to 0” 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It's a 1-2" event. What exactly is the best stuff lol

Yeah, I'm with you.  Pretty steady on a 1 to 2 inch event.   You can tell an inter-forum sentiment is brewing tho.  Gotta keep the Ft Sumter moment from happening tho.

But I wouldn't be surprised with this slipping north tho.  

[TSSN+]

Euro ai shifted north.

[LP08]

Euro showing similar ticks of the heights north in the east the rest of the 12z suite has shown.

[TSSN+]

Euro holds blasts dc to Baltimore 3-6”

[NorthArlington101]

If 12z EURO doesn’t mix precip maps suggest 3-4” 10:1 for DC-Balt corridor 

[T. August]

Yeah euro is nice, we are still in it

[bncho]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Euro holds blasts dc to Baltimore 3-6”

KING EURO

[TSSN+]

Idk what the 9” is but here’s Kuch map

 

[LP08]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Idk what the 9” is but here’s Kuch map

 

Must be them super Omegas...hah

[NorthArlington101]

Like the slightly wider strip of success. Still pretty scared with this storm honestly, but a verbatim borderline WSW criteria run from the EURO at 3 days out can't hurt.

[87storms]

Just now, LP08 said:

Must be them super Omegas...hah

I'll be out west this weekend.  Looks like I won't be missing much.  Northern areas need a complete pattern change.  Hopefully by January we get some real snowstorms instead of this NS nickel and dime stuff.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Idk what the 9” is but here’s Kuch map

 

We are in the game...but it's hard to get excited at all when the margin for error is so thin.  Which has been true of most of our threats lately which is why I've not been to active tracking things until inside 48 hours. 

[rjvanals]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

We are in the game...but it's hard to get excited at all when the margin for error is so thin.  Which has been true of most of our threats lately which is why I've not been to active tracking things until inside 48 hours. 

We have 2 things that have to go nearly perfectly with this storm:

1. The storm needs to develop in time and not shift north 

2. We have marginal surface temps with little margin for error

Hopefully we get lucky but its thread the needle 

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Idk what the 9” is but here’s Kuch map

 

That's Chill's old house.

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We are in the game...but it's hard to get excited at all when the margin for error is so thin.  Which has been true of most of our threats lately which is why I've not been to active tracking things until inside 48 hours. 

As long as it’s within 25-50 miles from us ya I’ll keep an eye on it cause we all know how much shifting can go on lately inside 2 days. Basically it’s Nam/rgem/ukmet on north train, euro in the middle and gfs on south train. 

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Idk what the 9” is but here’s Kuch map

 

Pivotal not as generous to everyone.

[WxUSAF]

Love the euro for MBY

[Ji]

I am going to sue weatherbell....why am im paying this money for a models that are delayed

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

I am going to sue weatherbell....why am im paying this money for a models that are delayed

Definitely debating an angry email with a threaten to cancel. WxBell is already a premium product with what you can get for free out there. EURO can't keep getting stuck

[Terpeast]

I’ll take the euro. Will be checking the 500mb vort maps on each model to compare and see what we need to happen upstairs. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Definitely debating an angry email with a threaten to cancel. WxBell is already a premium product with what you can get for free out there. EURO can't keep getting stuck

Switch to wxmodels haha 

[CAPE]

Gotta keep an eye on the exact location and timing of phasing that occurs with the energy associated with the vorticity lobe. 12z CMC has it further west/interacts sooner than the 0z run. Pretty big change there, thus more amped/ warmer/norther.