Winter 2025/26 Banter Thread

[nvck]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

ready for spc outlooks to be the most confusing thing ever?

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/conditional-intensity-information/

Probably a good way to communicate probability as well as intensity, but what about areas w/o the shading, in, say the 5% tor? is the shading just different "levels" of the previous sig shading? so 1 would be equivalent to the existing sig dashed lines, and then 2 and 3 are "levels" on top of that?

[Chicago916]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

ready for spc outlooks to be the most confusing thing ever?

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/conditional-intensity-information/

Good luck to Nadocast in coding all of that in

[Stevo6899]

47 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

i think it's common knowledge here that many winter threads will go off the rails at some point with some mi winter weather history or some other back-and-forth.

...which is why it's a running joke.

Im glad we can entertain y'all. With there being so many of us, that seems normal that everyday there's something to learn about Michigan weather history. It is a weather board. Blame Josh with all his stats n shit.

[Harry Perry]

6 hours ago, nvck said:

Probably a good way to communicate probability as well as intensity, but what about areas w/o the shading, in, say the 5% tor? is the shading just different "levels" of the previous sig shading? so 1 would be equivalent to the existing sig dashed lines, and then 2 and 3 are "levels" on top of that?

Yeah, pretty much emphasizing how severe the storms are expected to be in a given area.

[roardog]

10 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

ready for spc outlooks to be the most confusing thing ever?

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/conditional-intensity-information/

I guess it makes sense to a weather weenie but this is way too much for the general public that still don’t even know the difference between a watch and warning. 

[KeenerWx]

10 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

ready for spc outlooks to be the most confusing thing ever?

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/conditional-intensity-information/

What’s the point? A large population cannot even comprehend probabilities at their most simple application. Weather based probabilities already introduce a different dimension where product/forecast type and area coverage muddy how one would interpret the chance that x outcome happens specifically at their location. Ask a person what a 60% probability of an event happening within 25 miles of them means. Not a damn clue. This added level of complexity, then, cannot be for the benefit of the public. Suppose it’s a more hyper specific mode of grading forecasts internally? 

[roardog]

2 hours ago, KeenerWx said:

What’s the point? A large population cannot even comprehend probabilities at their most simple application. Weather based probabilities already introduce a different dimension where product/forecast type and area coverage muddy how one would interpret the chance that x outcome happens specifically at their location. Ask a person what a 60% probability of an event happening within 25 miles of them means. Not a damn clue. This added level of complexity, then, cannot be for the benefit of the public. Suppose it’s a more hyper specific mode of grading forecasts internally? 

It seems like they just make things more difficult for the general population. It’s like when they simplified winter weather headlines. Now, a winter weather advisory can mean anything from 5 inches of snow to a little bit of freezing drizzle to .2 inches of ice or anything in between. Also, why does a winter storm watch precede an ice storm warning? Why not just have an ice storm watch? For the general public, I think the headline should tell you what to expect and not make you guess or dig deeper to figure out what a winter weather advisory means on a particular day. 

[King James]

Don't blame/take it out on us for the weather boredom in your area and for the cold stretch. You don't see us ever bitching and moaning about Chicago's lake effect shit.

That’s the stuff

[King James]

Guess it's only fitting for a guy named king James to be whining and complaining.

lol so good. Like moths to the light

[mimillman]

Saw tiny bits of ice forming on the river by my office this morning which is exceptionally rare 

[cyclone77]

2 hours ago, mimillman said:

Saw tiny bits of ice forming on the river by my office this morning which is exceptionally rare 

The Mississippi is about as frozen over as I can remember.  If it weren't for barges maintaining a narrow swath you could run across right now.

The Rock near here 100% frozen across.  If we were to have a quick warmup with heavy rains the ice jam situation would be pretty dicey. 

[Brian D]

January 30

1994: Duluth has a record low of -35.

For Friday, January 30, 2026
1936 - Birmingham, AL, established a single storm record and 24 hour record with 11 inches of snow. (29th-30th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
1966 - The Blizzard of 1966 impacted New York and paralyzed the region. The train service was disrupted. Numerous highways, the New York State Thruway from Albany to the Pennsylvania state line, and the Buffalo Airport and other airports throughout western and central New York were closed. The Syracuse-Oswego area's hardest hit, where Bob Sykes, a meteorology professor at the State University of New York at Oswego, reported a whopping 102.4 inches! Some schools in Orleans County were closed for the entire week following the blizzard. Economic loss from the storm was estimated at $35 million. Winds gusting to 60 mph and temperatures in the teens, and heavy and blowing snow created severe blizzard conditions.
1977 - The great "Buffalo Blizzard" finally abated after three days. The storm added a foot of new snow to 33 inches already on the ground. Winds gusting to 75 mph reduced visibilities to near zero, produced snow drifts twenty-five feet high, and kept wind chill readings 50 degrees below zero. The blizzard paralyzed the city, and caused 250 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)
1987 - A winter storm brought more heavy snow to the North Atlantic Coast Region, with 13.6 inches reported at Hiram ME. January proved to be the snowiest of record for much of Massachusetts. Worcester MA reported an all-time monthly record of 46.8 inches of snow. (National Weather Summary)
1988 - Strong southerly winds, gusting to 53 mph at Kansas City MO, spread warm air into the central U.S. Nineteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Snow and strong northwest winds ushered cold arctic air into the north central states. The temperature at Cutbank plunged from 54 degrees to a morning low of 7 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary)
1989 - The temperature at McGrath, AK, dipped to 62 degrees below zero, and Fairbanks reported a reading of 51 degrees below zero, with unofficial readings in the area as cold as 75 degrees below zero. The massive dome of bitterly cold air began to slide down western Canada toward the north central U.S. Strong southwest winds ahead of the arctic front pushed the temperature at Great Falls MT to 62 degrees, and gusted to 124 mph at Choteau MT, overturning trucks and mobile homes, and a dozen empty railroad cars. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1990 - A major winter storm produced heavy snow from Indiana to New England. It was the biggest storm in two and a half years for eastern New York State. Snowfall totals in the mountains of Maine ranged up to 20 inches at Guilford and Lovell. Other heavy snowfall totals included 17 inches at Utica NY, and 19 inches at Bethel VT, Ludlow VT, and New London NH. The storm claimed three lives in eastern New York State, and four lives in Vermont. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
2002 - One of the driest Januarys on record in Iowa was broken up by a winter storm that produced snowfall across the state from January 30-31. The snow was heaviest across southern and southeastern Iowa, where storm total accumulations ranged between 11 and 13 inches along and south of Chariton�s line through Ottumwa to Wapello and Burlington. The highest reported totals were 13.2 inches at Leon and 13.0 inches at Bloomfield and Fairfield.
2005 - A significant ice storm struck parts of northern Georgia on the 30th-31st. Ice accretion was as great as 2 inches in Monroe county, located southeast of Atlanta. Power outages in the area at the height of the storm affected nearly 320,000 homes and businesses.