yoda Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Give me around an inch and I'm good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Just now, grhqofb5 said: That John Denver guy is full of s***. Speaking of Denver, they did pretty well with the system that’s going to scrape us. Looks like 6” totals in the metro area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 This little event will be a fun first go of winter weather at the new place. Will be interesting to see if I do much better than my folks in Western Ffx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 NWS has WWA for 2-4 here, we shall see. Funny that the 'high end' keeps going up, yesterday at this time my location had a 30% chance at 4" and a 5% chance of 6". As of the last update I'm now at 55% chance of 4", 30% chance of 6" and 5% chance at 8". Think that may be high unless we get 15 to 18-1 ratios. I'll be thrilled with the 2-4 in forecast verifying. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 12z ICON looks to have nudged north a bit comparing 12z 24 to 06z 30 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Just now, yoda said: May be the first time I've seen an 'anti DC snowhole' on a snow map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 1 minute ago, yoda said: The inevitable northern band that leave subsidence behind and makes DC the worst spot to be will be pretty funny. But this is a good run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 14 minutes ago, yoda said: Give me around an inch and I'm good Said no woman ever ! Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Even the RGEM gets some light stuff to DC/a little north. Nice jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 12z RGEM also moved north with its qpf field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: The inevitable northern band that leave subsidence behind and makes DC the worst spot to be will be pretty funny. But this is a good run! Will look and feel like Christmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 If we were to take Kuchera as gospel on 12z RGEM: 06z at DCA was 0.2". 12z is 1.2" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 12z FV3 way north of its 0z. Flurries to I70. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 12z FV3 way north of its 0z. Flurries to I70. Definitely feeling more confident in seeing "something" vs. a complete miss. Toggling through some of the other models (crappy ones mostly while bored), everything seems to pushing coverage north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 These overnight runs really do us dirty, but we always come back during the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 12z RGEM also moved north with its qpf field What time is the onset of precipitation? Nam is super early. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Just now, Imgoinhungry said: What time is the onset of precipitation? Nam is super early. . Bet the dry air will push it later than we think. I am thinking 7-8 at my area in W PWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 2 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: What time is the onset of precipitation? Nam is super early. . 4amish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Just imagine if this verified... but more seriously how is this outcome possible? Would a surprise coastal pop off? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Seems like a general consensus being drummed up via CAMs this morning. Feel like flurries will reach north of I-70 with measurable (0.1”+) probably around I-70 with a small incremental increase the further south you go. Rt50 is likely the dividing line for where 1” is possible in this scenario across VA/MD. Slightly better chance north of Rt50 as you get into Sussex County DE. Best chance will be I-66 on south with 2-4” local to 6” across Southwest VA true Central VA, albeit lower side of things as you come off the terrain. System struggling to gain latitude and the drier antecedent airmass will be the main issue for majority of the sub. Bob Chill and Wxdude-ville will have the best opportunity here. CVille folks will have a nice little snowfall to start the season as well. 12 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 11 minutes ago, bncho said: Just imagine if this verified... but more seriously how is this outcome possible? Would a surprise coastal pop off? Appears River/bay enhanced?? Would a model pick up something like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 6 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: Appears River/bay enhanced?? Would a model pick up something like that? With all the love I have for the NWS I can't get with the high-end snow map. Uniquely terrible - minus for weenie entertainment - and if the purpose is to inform EMS/other partners about a "realistic" worse case scenario they fail miserably. The computer generated 8-12" corridors and the water-driven enhancement makes no sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 GFS will be a nudge north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 36 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Said no woman ever ! Lol Only your first wife. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 GFS not too bad. Gets about an inch up to DC via crappy SV maps...precip shield looks a bit norther 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 I'm still rooting for Tomer Berg to be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Gfs is north and juicy. Pummels @Bob Chill to RIC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 GFS is nice, lets keep the good trends going. Feeling better about seeing some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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