The Return of the 12/5 Snowstorm

[BristowWx]

20 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Yeah... it means anyone north of DC get a thicker cloud deck tomorrow.

You seem unhappy about a technically fall all snow event.  The phone is ringing..it’s Interstate…answer it

[wxdude64]

3 hours ago, Solution Man said:

Should be WInter Storm Warming stuff

 

3 hours ago, wxdude64 said:

Bumped up again, now 65% chance at 4", a 38% chance at 6" and a 10% chance at 8".  NWS bumped forecast to 3-6 total. 

Well, forecast was updated about 20 minutes ago, right there on the edge of WSW criteria -

[Eskimo Joe]

16 minutes ago, bncho said:

are we doing an observation thread, or will this be it?

I vote we just put everything in here.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Wow, the other counties are really dragging their feet with this one…

[Terpeast]

I just compared radar with the 18z 3k NAM sim for the same valid time (00z, which is now). Actual radar shows echos north of the TN/KY border, model doesn’t. Northern extent may be underdone, and perhaps a bit too slow.

[bncho]

Just now, Terpeast said:

I just compared radar with the most recent HRRR sim for the same valid time (00z, which is now). Actual radar shows echos north of the TN/KY border, model doesn’t. Northern extent may be underdone.

The latest HRRR was one of the snowier models. Are you implying a boom is in the cards?

[Terpeast]

Just now, bncho said:

The latest HRRR was one of the snowier models. Are you implying a boom is in the cards?

If radar trends hold, yes

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, bncho said:

The latest HRRR was one of the snowier models. Are you implying a boom is in the cards?

Dude, he’s having a kid. Do your homework.

Just playing with you. 

[bncho]

23z HRRR might be showing what Terpeast is alluding to... there's a heavy band about 25 miles south of DC.

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I just compared radar with the most recent HRRR sim for the same valid time (00z, which is now). Actual radar shows echos north of the TN/KY border, model doesn’t. Northern extent may be underdone, and perhaps a bit too slow.

Generally seems wetter than the HRRR depiction which helps us all out even south id think. I’m just praying I don’t get stuck between bands!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I just compared radar with the most recent HRRR sim for the same valid time (00z, which is now). Actual radar shows echos north of the TN/KY border, model doesn’t. Northern extent may be underdone, and perhaps a bit too slow.

?

[bncho]

If you live 20 miles south of DC, you will LOVE the HRRR.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

?

My bad, that was the 18z NAM 3k. Was on mobile and thought I clicked to HRRR but the screen somehow reset. I’ll edit my post. 

[bncho]

Interesting.... 23z HRRR with the heaviest totals just south of DC.

[BlizzardNole]

32 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Super concerned about our fluffy car topper. Ran to the store. Hope I’m doing this right? 

You relegated the half-n-half to a bottom shelf -- yeah you're doing it right!

33 and dropping; hoping for some Dec. 5 magic

[FBXwinterfan]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

If you live 20 miles south of DC, you will LOVE the HRRR.

Just south of Fredericksburg here. We sometimes miss these but usually are in a good spot. Just far south enough to get the moisture and just far north enough to get all snow. 

[weatherCCB]

32/18

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Interesting.... 23z HRRR with the heaviest totals just south of DC.

One more jump and DC jack but idk if I should be greedy

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Interesting.... 23z HRRR with the heaviest totals just south of DC.

Let’s bump that 25 miles north!

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

Interesting.... 23z HRRR with the heaviest totals just south of DC.

It's near the end of its run. It's not very reliable at that range.

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Interesting.... 23z HRRR with the heaviest totals just south of DC.

I don't particularly like that hole of sub 2 inches near where I am but I will have faith that the HRRR is onto nothing (though honestly it sorta makes sense two have two maxes). 

[Interstate]

24 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

You seem unhappy about a technically fall all snow event.  The phone is ringing..it’s Interstate…answer it

I want Dec 8th 2013

[bncho]

Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

It's near the end of its run. It's not very reliable at that range.

You have a point, but I would disagree. The HRRR 48 hour runs are unreliable, but anything within 24 I would say hold some meaningful weight.

[nj2va]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

One more jump and DC jack but idk if I should be greedy

Zoomed in 10:1

 

[GATECH]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I don't particularly like that hole of sub 2 inches near where I am but I will have faith that the HRRR is onto nothing (though honestly it sorta makes sense two have two maxes). 

What you are seeing is the former Hoco/Westminister/Psu death band….now known as the Prince William/Springfield/Alexandria death band…at least for the last 4 years

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Zoomed in 10:1

 

Tasty for you and me even without the bump. Hope we aren’t getting strung along 

[nj2va]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Tasty for you and me even without the bump. Hope we aren’t getting strung along 

Honestly, I’d be fine with an 0.5”-1” — love snow falling/coating+ with Christmas lights.  But definitely upside to 2” boom.

[bncho]

Yes, I know it's 90 %tile, but I just don't understand how this is even remotely possible.

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I want Dec 8th 2013

I’m gonna work on that in the meantime let’s turn that frown upside down.  

[WesternFringe]

52 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Super concerned about our fluffy car topper. Ran to the store. Hope I’m doing this right? 

You should make it the night!