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The Return of the 12/5 Snowstorm


SnowenOutThere
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20 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Yeah... it means anyone north of DC get a thicker cloud deck tomorrow.

You seem unhappy about a technically fall all snow event.  The phone is ringing..it’s Interstate…answer it

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3 hours ago, Solution Man said:

Should be WInter Storm Warming stuff

 

3 hours ago, wxdude64 said:

Bumped up again, now 65% chance at 4", a 38% chance at 6" and a 10% chance at 8".  NWS bumped forecast to 3-6 total. 

Well, forecast was updated about 20 minutes ago, right there on the edge of WSW criteria -

image.png.59a9fdf6a501ccd589ef4d9fa90e35a7.png

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I just compared radar with the 18z 3k NAM sim for the same valid time (00z, which is now). Actual radar shows echos north of the TN/KY border, model doesn’t. Northern extent may be underdone, and perhaps a bit too slow.

IMG_8481.jpeg.cc2c0e5e5eca09513fa2721903f6960c.jpegIMG_8482.thumb.jpeg.4a2e20169cfad1036e20f81ced505265.jpeg

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Just now, Terpeast said:

I just compared radar with the most recent HRRR sim for the same valid time (00z, which is now). Actual radar shows echos north of the TN/KY border, model doesn’t. Northern extent may be underdone.

IMG_8481.jpeg.cc2c0e5e5eca09513fa2721903f6960c.jpegIMG_8482.thumb.jpeg.4a2e20169cfad1036e20f81ced505265.jpeg

The latest HRRR was one of the snowier models. Are you implying a boom is in the cards?

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3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I just compared radar with the most recent HRRR sim for the same valid time (00z, which is now). Actual radar shows echos north of the TN/KY border, model doesn’t. Northern extent may be underdone, and perhaps a bit too slow.

IMG_8481.jpeg.cc2c0e5e5eca09513fa2721903f6960c.jpegIMG_8482.thumb.jpeg.4a2e20169cfad1036e20f81ced505265.jpeg

Generally seems wetter than the HRRR depiction which helps us all out even south id think. I’m just praying I don’t get stuck between bands!

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Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

It's near the end of its run. It's not very reliable at that range.

You have a point, but I would disagree. The HRRR 48 hour runs are unreliable, but anything within 24 I would say hold some meaningful weight.

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2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I don't particularly like that hole of sub 2 inches near where I am but I will have faith that the HRRR is onto nothing (though honestly it sorta makes sense two have two maxes). 

What you are seeing is the former Hoco/Westminister/Psu death band….now known as the Prince William/Springfield/Alexandria death band…at least for the last 4 years

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