The Return of the 12/5 Snowstorm

[yoda]

Give me around an inch and I'm good

[87storms]

Just now, grhqofb5 said:

That John Denver guy is full of s***.

Speaking of Denver, they did pretty well with the system that’s going to scrape us. Looks like 6” totals in the metro area.

[DanTheMan]

This little event will be a fun first go of winter weather at the new place. Will be interesting to see if I do much better than my folks in Western Ffx

[wxdude64]

NWS has WWA for 2-4 here, we shall see. Funny that the 'high end' keeps going up, yesterday at this time my location had a 30% chance at 4" and a 5% chance of 6". As of the last update I'm now at 55% chance of 4", 30% chance of 6" and 5% chance at 8". Think that may be high unless we get 15 to 18-1 ratios. I'll be thrilled with the 2-4 in forecast verifying.  

[yoda]

12z ICON looks to have nudged north a bit comparing 12z 24 to 06z 30

[yoda]

 

[wxdude64]

Just now, yoda said:

 

May be the first time I've seen an 'anti DC snowhole' on a snow map. 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

 

The inevitable northern band that leave subsidence behind and makes DC the worst spot to be will be pretty funny. But this is a good run!

[winter_warlock]

14 minutes ago, yoda said:

Give me around an inch and I'm good

Said no woman ever ! Lol

[LP08]

Even the RGEM gets some light stuff to DC/a little north.  Nice jump.

[yoda]

12z RGEM also moved north with its qpf field 

[Solution Man]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

The inevitable northern band that leave subsidence behind and makes DC the worst spot to be will be pretty funny. But this is a good run!

Will look and feel like Christmas 

[yoda]

If we were to take Kuchera as gospel on 12z RGEM:

06z at DCA was 0.2".  12z is 1.2"

[WxUSAF]

12z FV3 way north of its 0z. Flurries to I70.

[Solution Man]

[LP08]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z FV3 way north of its 0z. Flurries to I70.

Definitely feeling more confident in seeing "something" vs. a complete miss.  Toggling through some of the other models (crappy ones mostly while bored), everything seems to pushing coverage north.

[bncho]

These overnight runs really do us dirty, but we always come back during the day.

[Imgoinhungry]

12z RGEM also moved north with its qpf field 

What time is the onset of precipitation? Nam is super early.


.

[BristowWx]

Just now, Imgoinhungry said:

What time is the onset of precipitation? Nam is super early.


.

Bet the dry air will push it later than we think.  I am thinking 7-8 at my area in W PWC.  

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

What time is the onset of precipitation? Nam is super early.


.

4amish

[bncho]

Just imagine if this verified... but more seriously how is this outcome possible? Would a surprise coastal pop off?

[MillvilleWx]

Seems like a general consensus being drummed up via CAMs this morning. Feel like flurries will reach north of I-70 with measurable (0.1”+) probably around I-70 with a small incremental increase the further south you go.

Rt50 is likely the dividing line for where 1” is possible in this scenario across VA/MD. Slightly better chance north of Rt50 as you get into Sussex County DE.
 

Best chance will be I-66 on south with 2-4” local to 6” across Southwest VA true Central VA, albeit lower side of things as you come off the terrain. 

System struggling to gain latitude and the drier antecedent airmass will be the main issue for majority of the sub. Bob Chill and Wxdude-ville will have the best opportunity here. CVille folks will have a nice little snowfall to start the season as well. 

[wxdude64]

11 minutes ago, bncho said:

Just imagine if this verified... but more seriously how is this outcome possible? Would a surprise coastal pop off?

Appears River/bay enhanced?? Would a model pick up something like that?

[NorthArlington101]

6 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Appears River/bay enhanced?? Would a model pick up something like that?

With all the love I have for the NWS I can't get with the high-end snow map. Uniquely terrible - minus for weenie entertainment - and if the purpose is to inform EMS/other partners about a "realistic" worse case scenario they fail miserably. The computer generated 8-12" corridors and the water-driven enhancement makes no sense.

[LP08]

GFS will be a nudge north.

[ravensrule]

36 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Said no woman ever ! Lol

Only your first wife. 

[stormtracker]

GFS not too bad.  Gets about an inch up to DC via crappy SV maps...precip shield looks a bit norther

[aldie 22]

I'm still rooting for Tomer Berg to be right

[WxUSAF]

Gfs is north and juicy. Pummels @Bob Chill to RIC.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

GFS is nice, lets keep the good trends going.  Feeling better about seeing some snow.