The Return of the 12/5 Snowstorm

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Is that storm total or total at the time and still snowing? 

Looking at the date on that snowfall map I'm gonna say total snowfall 

[WEATHER53]

I liked this one for a long time and it’s turning nice but really never went away in my mind.  
Can  one of you get some graphics on where this cold air mass ,for Friday, is and what it looks like ?

Ji you called it!!

Maybe the Ji53 storm?

[WEATHER53]

9 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Looking at the date on that snowfall map I'm gonna say total snowfall 

Thanks and don’t know how I missed it 

[baltosquid]

UKMET is very similar to 18z as well. 00z is a lot of holds trajectory wise, with some dryness.

[bncho]

0z GEFS 50% stronger signal than 18z

[winter_warlock]

21 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Thanks and don’t know how I missed it 

It's all good bro. 

[winter_warlock]

13 minutes ago, bncho said:

0z GEFS 50% stronger signal than 18z

Baby steps!! 

[SnowenOutThere]

One last post before I call it a night. Something that I thought was a fun demonstration of how moistening the atmosphere truly works was this snapshot of the HRRR at 2am Friday.

I really love how you can see the actual snowfall hitting the ground earliest along the spine of Shenandoah because the couple 1000 feet elevation they have compared to the surrounding areas means that there is less dry air between the clouds and the ground. It's fun to then see this reflected by it showing snow hitting the ground instead of sublimating. Dewpoint depression shows how the higher up you go the more moisture is making it to the surface as the lower values are found almost identically to an elevation map.

None of this actually has a sensible impact on our weather or forecasts (though it does explain that the Shenandoah maximum in this storm is less the result of orthographic lift but instead this dry air quirk) but instead just a fun exercise to show how moistening the column works from the top down elevation wise. I will be sure to this run to show my mountain meteorology/climate near the ground professor as I feel that they'd appreciate it. 

[bncho]

well we got the two major short-range models (HRRR and NAM) in exchange for the Euro. 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

well we got the two major short-range models (HRRR and NAM) in exchange for the Euro. 

Just brutal. I’m going to cry. 

[bncho]

why can't we ever have every model it always has to flip flop around 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Just brutal. I’m going to cry. 

See? Euro ain't always right!

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

See? Euro ain't always right!

Calm yourself Mr. Complainer, nobody said it is always right, plus is it Friday already?. 

[Maestrobjwa]

27 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Calm yourself Mr. Complainer, nobody said it is always right, plus is it Friday already?. 

Yeah but you just complained though 

[ravensrule]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but you just complained though 

If you complained twice a year you could comment. 

[Maestrobjwa]

14 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

If you complained twice a year you could comment. 

Touche

[Ji]

Hrrr took everything away but then the Nam destroys us

[Ji]

But Nam 3k destroys our soul

[Weather Will]

Hug the WB 6Z 12K NAM.  What could possibly go wrong?!

[WxUSAF]

Damn. Not what I wanted to wake up to. 

[mappy]

18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Damn. Not what I wanted to wake up to. 

At least you have a chance, think this one will miss me 

[stormy]

Unfortunately,  this map from the WPC says it all.

[aldie 22]

I think we can squeeze out a few raindrops up this way. Im looking forward to the BBQ weather on Christmas. 

[H2O]

Can’t trust the NAM. I’m just gonna see if there can be any trend during today. 

[Imgoinhungry]

Hrrr took everything away but then the Nam destroys us

Hey, the nam nailed Monday system!


.

[bncho]

we climbed the ladder but slipped on the last rung  and fell on our face lol

[jayyy]

Only have one run of the retiring NAM on our side.. what could go wrong lol

[stormtracker]

46 minutes ago, H2O said:

Can’t trust the NAM. I’m just gonna see if there can be any trend during today. 

I think it’s about time to face the music for us.  Imma hang on till after 12z

[NorthArlington101]

6z EUROs were slightly improved. Not calling this one until it’s Friday morning and the precip is stuck in Fredericksburg. We’ve seen crazier north shifts 

[Interstate]

We need something to push here... and we just dont have it.