The Return of the 12/5 Snowstorm

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

GFS looks to be pretty similar to 12z so far (though out West is possibly slightly improved?) Didn't matter, if anything the run is a slight step backwards with the energy being more ribbony 

Gfs may be more interested in the follow up wave (dec 8-9)

[JenkinsJinkies]

See, I told you it was too soon.

[SnowenOutThere]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Gfs may be more interested in the follow up wave (dec 8-9)

Tbh that wave has nearly infinitely more potential as it’s not 3 separate ones in a trench coat pretending to be a real storm  

[mappy]

23 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

See, I told you it was too soon.

Don’t ruin the fun for everyone else. 

[mitchnick]

24 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Gfs may be more interested in the follow up wave (dec 8-9)

Gfs isn't interested in anything over the next week+ unfortunately except for a fast, compressed flow.

[nw baltimore wx]

28 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

See, I told you it was too soon.

 

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

Don’t ruin the fun for everyone else. 

Having separate threads also makes it easier to follow. Especially on a phone.

[stormtracker]

34 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

See, I told you it was too soon.

It’s 72 hours. We usually make thread 5 days out. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

See, I told you it was too soon.

Jinx bullshit is annoying.. bullshit.

This is a fucking science based forum ffs. Get a grip.

[CAPE]

I tend to cuss when I drink bourbon. Feels good.

[Solution Man]

Just now, CAPE said:

I tend to cuss when I drink bourbon. Feels good.

Love it CAPE

[SnowenOutThere]

Doesn't look the 18z Euro should cave too much if at all so far. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Doesn't look the 18z Euro should cave too much if at all so far. 

Very impressed with your posts lately. 

[pazzo83]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Do you want to get banned?

lol these damn kids

[stormtracker]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Jinx bullshit is annoying.. bullshit.

This is a fucking science based forum ffs. Get a grip.

This.

One of my pet peeves here.   As if the storm is sentient, pulls up the internet and sees a storm thread. "Welp, I'm not coming now".

[bncho]

17 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Doesn't look the 18z Euro should cave too much if at all so far. 

pretty close to 12z. Solid run. Heavier precipitation shifted slightly SE, but that's the only major difference.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

pretty close to 12z. Solid run. Heavier precipitation shifted slightly SE, but that's the only major difference.

Solid run? Maybe some chunks, but solid?

[Weather Will]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Solid run? Maybe some chunks, but solid?

Solid my &@$@.

[Weather Will]

What is too bad is that we may waste a very anomalous cold shot coming......WB 18Z EURO for Friday.

[Weather Will]

For Friday, as forecasted by the 18Z EURO, the trough is positively tilted, too progressive.

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

What is too bad is that we may waste a very anomalous cold shot coming......WB 18Z EURO for Friday.

That's likely why our storm gets pushed east unfortunately. 

[NorthArlington101]

AIFS ens a very minor tick better, but when you’re talking tenths of inches, ya take what you can get. 

 

[Weather Will]

I mean an early thread jinxing a storm is silly, but there is really not a significant/ solid threat for Friday based on current guidance.

[CAPE]

Strong upper jet streak induces stretched/elongated vorticity ribbon underneath. Not going to get a widespread or major event with this, but rather a possible narrow corridor of decent lift that could produce a light to moderate event. Hard to say exactly where that might occur at this juncture but it appears it will be somewhere in our region or maybe even a bit south. Given the h5 look on the Euro it *should* be cold enough for a bit of snow.

[JenkinsJinkies]

16 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

What is too bad is that we may waste a very anomalous cold shot coming......WB 18Z EURO for Friday.

This level of cold anomaly is almost always dry. Too cold to snow is a real thing.

[87storms]

Jinxes are bs, but superstition is legit. I bought my last jeep in Nov '13. If things don't trend better soon, I might get another one.

[JenkinsJinkies]

54 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Jinx bullshit is annoying.. bullshit.

This is a fucking science based forum ffs. Get a grip.

I mean the atmospheric models are already showing red flags, which have been pointed out on this very page.

[mappy]

15 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I mean an early thread jinxing a storm is silly, but there is really not a significant/ solid threat for Friday based on current guidance.

we just had a 25 page thread for sleet and cold rain. It’s okay to start a thread for this potential 

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I mean the atmospheric models are already showing red flags, which have been pointed out on this very page.

So don’t read the thread

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Very impressed with your posts lately. 

Thank you! We finally got to the actual H5 Jet stream ageostrophic wind etc part of my course last month! Of course, it wasn't anything crazy but its given me just enough tools to begin identifying how the upper air connects to the surface and making predictions. That said, I'm very confident that this is very much a Dunning-Kruger effect where I know just enough to make broad forecasts and identify what I we need models to trend and make predictions from an earlier hour to but I am unable to "correct" model behavior as I just don't have the confidence (wait till Spring 2027 and Synoptic met for that) to do so. So with that said please feel free to correct any mistakes I make as it literally might save my grade! I also should of course mention that a lot of this knowledge was built through posts by you @psuhoffman @brooklynwx99 @high risk @WxUSAF@Terpeast @Bob Chill alongside the many other more occasional in depth breakdowns by our "on-event" posters. It's just this class has finally given me just enough to start synthesizing my own analyses so genuinely thank you. 

[SnowenOutThere]

23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Strong upper jet streak induces stretched/elongated vorticity ribbon underneath. Not going to get a widespread or major event with this, but rather a possible narrow corridor of decent lift that could produce a light to moderate event. Hard to say exactly where that might occur at this juncture but it appears it will be somewhere in our region or maybe even a bit south. Given the h5 look on the Euro it *should* be cold enough for a bit of snow.

To be honest the upper winds is where my knowledge gets confused as we went over how the jet forms (I can tell you why the jet increases on the northward heading side of an upper low and decreases when heading south) but didn't go over the practical effect on the surface. I'm currently trying to research it on my own but generally it confuses me as my intuition says that areas of lift should form where winds are accelerating in the upper atmosphere (as it induces lower level lift as air is pulled into the upper flow) yet I know from the 4 quadrant model that understand I have is flawed. Additionally, I would've expected that stronger upper winds generally encourages cyclogenesis and didn't consider that it could actually hurt consolidation (which admittedly does make sense). Basically, what upper wind profile would actually be conductive to forming a strong surface low pressure?