E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[The Iceman]

2 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

18z GFS reminds me a lot of Boxing Day 2010. A storm that was so painfully close in eastern PA.

We got 16" on Boxing day, 10 miles away got 6". Insane gradient.

[MickeyTim6533]

oof

[MickeyTim6533]

DT about to be Pounding his chest. 

[Birds~69]

IMO, people are getting overly excited. Something maybe but some of these ridiculous total are just way far fetched. I'll be happy w/a solid 6" storm and then some cold...

44F 

 

[Fields27]

IMO, people are getting overly excited. Something maybe but some of these ridiculous total are just way far fetched. I'll be happy w/a solid 6" storm and then some cold...
44F 
 

Agreed. Its hard not to get excited with these insane solutions but like you said, it's even harder to get a storm of that magnitude in these parts. We fall for it time and time again. Especially this winter when models are struggling even inside 5 days.

Not to mention we haven't been in the type of pattern that is conducive of big wrapped up lp's climbing the east coast. Almost everything trends more flat, strung out, and suppressed recently.

I hope im wrong. I just can't forget the numerous head fake insane snow maps 5 days out just to watch it fizzle out to another "storm that was so close."

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[Kevin Reilly]

8 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

My top analog is 2/26/2010. Feels like a last hurrah (after a brief warm-up), and I think this will miss just north, with NYC having a historic snowstorm, while PHL gets 4-6 inches, and BWI/DCA gets close to nothing, as the winter is pretty much over in those cities.

23” with 50 mph winds out of the west with snow 2” an hour February 10th 2010.  It was a MONSTER!! Never have I seen 50 mph winds out of the west with 2” hour rates for 2 hours straight a really crazy storm.  It looked like a huyricsnd hurricane east of Ocean City Maryland.

[JTA66]

Yes, we’ve know the flavor of this winter and how the models are handling it for awhile now.

Epic looks a week+ out only to start scaling back as we move up in time from there.

My thinking is, the ceiling for this is probably a high-end SECS. Of course that means a nothing burger is still on the table. We just can’t know!

[Snowguy66]

Who cares about DT

[Hurricane Agnes]

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

IMO, people are getting overly excited. Something maybe but some of these ridiculous total are just way far fetched. I'll be happy w/a solid 6" storm and then some cold...

44F 

 

It's the mid-range shuffle.

[Duca892]

Yall getting testy about 1 guy who has reasoning behind a storm not happening lmfao 

[ChescoWx]

What always gets me is folks staring at an 18z vs a 12z model with 5 days to go and they get fired up that the 18z GFS has 31 inches of snow at ACY and only 3" at ABE....this is all model noise and meaningless! There will be a storm and there are many runs to go that will have it suppressed and those that have it going inland. Relax folks!

[Lady Di]

Fog rolling in.  Nothing would please me more than coming out of this rainy foggy week with a snowstorm on the weekend.  Cautiously optimistic at this juncture.