The Iceman Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 2 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: 18z GFS reminds me a lot of Boxing Day 2010. A storm that was so painfully close in eastern PA. We got 16" on Boxing day, 10 miles away got 6". Insane gradient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago oof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago DT about to be Pounding his chest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago IMO, people are getting overly excited. Something maybe but some of these ridiculous total are just way far fetched. I'll be happy w/a solid 6" storm and then some cold... 44F 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago IMO, people are getting overly excited. Something maybe but some of these ridiculous total are just way far fetched. I'll be happy w/a solid 6" storm and then some cold... 44F Agreed. Its hard not to get excited with these insane solutions but like you said, it's even harder to get a storm of that magnitude in these parts. We fall for it time and time again. Especially this winter when models are struggling even inside 5 days. Not to mention we haven't been in the type of pattern that is conducive of big wrapped up lp's climbing the east coast. Almost everything trends more flat, strung out, and suppressed recently. I hope im wrong. I just can't forget the numerous head fake insane snow maps 5 days out just to watch it fizzle out to another "storm that was so close." Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 8 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: My top analog is 2/26/2010. Feels like a last hurrah (after a brief warm-up), and I think this will miss just north, with NYC having a historic snowstorm, while PHL gets 4-6 inches, and BWI/DCA gets close to nothing, as the winter is pretty much over in those cities. 23” with 50 mph winds out of the west with snow 2” an hour February 10th 2010. It was a MONSTER!! Never have I seen 50 mph winds out of the west with 2” hour rates for 2 hours straight a really crazy storm. It looked like a huyricsnd hurricane east of Ocean City Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Yes, we’ve know the flavor of this winter and how the models are handling it for awhile now. Epic looks a week+ out only to start scaling back as we move up in time from there. My thinking is, the ceiling for this is probably a high-end SECS. Of course that means a nothing burger is still on the table. We just can’t know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Who cares about DT 1 1 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: IMO, people are getting overly excited. Something maybe but some of these ridiculous total are just way far fetched. I'll be happy w/a solid 6" storm and then some cold... 44F It's the mid-range shuffle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Yall getting testy about 1 guy who has reasoning behind a storm not happening lmfao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago What always gets me is folks staring at an 18z vs a 12z model with 5 days to go and they get fired up that the 18z GFS has 31 inches of snow at ACY and only 3" at ABE....this is all model noise and meaningless! There will be a storm and there are many runs to go that will have it suppressed and those that have it going inland. Relax folks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Fog rolling in. Nothing would please me more than coming out of this rainy foggy week with a snowstorm on the weekend. Cautiously optimistic at this juncture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 57 minutes ago, Duca892 said: Yall getting testy about 1 guy who has reasoning behind a storm not happening lmfao we are all optimists not pessimists. Go post on his page and rave to your hearts content about how great this guy is. His forecasting is like walking with two left feet and trying tie his shoe laces with no thumbs. Hopeless 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 51 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: What always gets me is folks staring at an 18z vs a 12z model with 5 days to go and they get fired up that the 18z GFS has 31 inches of snow at ACY and only 3" at ABE....this is all model noise and meaningless! There will be a storm and there are many runs to go that will have it suppressed and those that have it going inland. Relax folks! Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Agreed. As far as LR models go, the typical pattern MO this year is the LR models show the MECS storm potential at 7-10 days.---lose the MECS potential at 4-6 days and then bring the potential MECS back in a diminshed capacity 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Hurricane Schwartz is not impressed in the least with the threat this weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hurricane Schwartz is not impressed in the least with the threat this weekend yep, starting to think its curtains on this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Waking up to everything going to the EURO. Just lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 28 minutes ago, Duca892 said: Waking up to everything going to the EURO. Just lol are we really that surprised? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Guess DT was right all along...All hail king EURO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 34 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said: are we really that surprised? I mean euro has been trash this winter. Just when we need the euro it's doesnt deliver for us. Its still early so let's see if there are any changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 31 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said: Guess DT was right all along...All hail king EURO Its not king anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshb32689 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago This seems far from settled 0z Euro vs 6z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, MickeyTim6533 said: yep, starting to think its curtains on this one It feels like curtains on the winter. With the sun angle increasing, it's only going to get tougher to get the cold air necessary for a snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Ok enough with the sun angle crap, we’ll get to that in March. With good rates and temps low 30’s snow will accumulate especially if the snow comes in overnight. It’s Wednesday 5 days to go yet as we’ve seen this season a final solution won’t be settled till Friday if at all. I’m hedging on this being a moderate storm at best and most likely for Eastern areas. So just buckle up and enjoy the ride. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Snow Flo Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Look at the bright side - If this thing doesn't develop, we're that much closer to next winter! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 20 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Phase 3 is still cold in late February. I think exiting 3/entering 4 is the sweet spot for a snow event, though the pattern should change for the warmer after the event. Actually you want the MJO to be in phase 8 or phase 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Welp, a wrapped up bomb is probably out the window. Excellent job by the euro OP to never give in. On the other hand, there is still room to get a respectable event out of this, especially closer to the coast you get. The 6z rgem sharpened the trough a lot vs 00z. Nice improvements on 6z euro and Ai. Gotta make some baby steps. I really want to see more improvements on today’s runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Here was 6z rgem changes, and it’s exactly the type of changes to root for going forward. Lead wave is out of the way faster and you see the height changes react. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Me after seeing the overnight runs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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