12/2 Cold Rain and High Elevation Snow

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 3K NAM is cooler this run, but still just rain east of the mountains.  Comparing 925 and 850 to 18Z.

step in the correct driection

[jayyy]

Both NAMs continue to hate this system and insist we torch at 850

Kind of makes sense given the high is sliding east off the coast — a SE flow - on December 2nd

[jayyy]

Honestly, I’d be content with 2” of snow up this way at this rate. Trends aren’t encouraging

[MillvilleWx]

3 hours ago, mappy said:

If you make your way towards me there’s a great diner called New Freedom Family Diner just up into PA 

Adding to the list!! Thanks Mappy  

[WEATHER53]

High not running off coast as fast 

[high risk]

39 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Both NAMs continue to hate this system and insist we torch at 850

        This is bothering me a lot, as the NAMs are usually the colder solutions.  I think we're still in the range where the NAM could be having synoptic issues, but if it continues on Monday to keep the accumulations further northwest of the I-95 corridor, I'm going to guess it's right.   The faster onset, shown by the GFS and its hi-res HiResW FV3, would help a ton here, although even where it shows snow, the thermal profile has pretty much zero margin for error.

[Ji]

WB 3K NAM is cooler this run, but still just rain east of the mountains.  Comparing 925 and 850 to 18Z.

What’s the difference between a purple zero and a white zero?

[bncho]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

What’s the difference between a purple zero and a white zero?

below freezing and above freezing, almost like 31.8f vs 32.3f

[SnowenOutThere]

19 minutes ago, high risk said:

        This is bothering me a lot, as the NAMs are usually the colder solutions.  I think we're still in the range where the NAM could be having synoptic issues, but if it continues on Monday to keep the accumulations further northwest of the I-95 corridor, I'm going to guess it's right.   The faster onset, shown by the GFS and its hi-res HiResW FV3, would help a ton here, although even where it shows snow, the thermal profile has pretty much zero margin for error.

I mean this sounding from the Catoctins really says it all. Though, it appears if you're able to keep the column cool it will be dumping with a saturated atmosphere up to 500mb and good lift in the DGZ

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z RDPS (less precip.)

[bncho]

if taken verbatim, RDPS zr in the metros might be an issue with these temperatures

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z GFS also a little drier.

[Interstate]

GFS keeps the northern crew happy

[Weather Will]

Temps stay at or below freezing   until 1pm on latest GFS in my area.  Icy Tuesday morning setting up.

[Ji]

Temps stay at or below freezing   until 1pm on latest GFS in my area.  Icy Tuesday morning setting up.

Canadian still unusable
?

[wxmeddler]

38 minutes ago, bncho said:

if taken verbatim, RDPS zr in the metros might be an issue with these temperatures

Heavy Freezing Rain at 30 deg isn't actually a huge problem on the surface as most make it out to be. Too much latent heat release happening. Trees / Power-lines are a concern, but you really need to be 28 or below for stuff to stick in moderate to heavy rain. The worst case is <28 and light rain, that's when you're in trouble.

I think we're seeing a trend north and west with the WAA. If the surface holds at 30, might be few isolated areas that are a mess, if it gets to 32, we'll be fine disappointed.

[87storms]

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Temps stay at or below freezing   until 1pm on latest GFS in my area.  Icy Tuesday morning setting up.

Yea, low level cold air can take forever to scour out. The issue is upstairs. That hp is just racing east, so there’s not gonna be much resistance to the waa. I think an inch stat starter would be a win in this setup.

[notvirga!]

Gfs was way north and now it’s the southernmost solution switching places with euro. Seem to remember them flipping a lot like that last year

[bncho]

CMC decent solution.