12/2 Cold Rain and High Elevation Snow

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 3K NAM is cooler this run, but still just rain east of the mountains.  Comparing 925 and 850 to 18Z.

step in the correct driection

[jayyy]

Both NAMs continue to hate this system and insist we torch at 850

Kind of makes sense given the high is sliding east off the coast — a SE flow - on December 2nd

[jayyy]

Honestly, I’d be content with 2” of snow up this way at this rate. Trends aren’t encouraging

[MillvilleWx]

3 hours ago, mappy said:

If you make your way towards me there’s a great diner called New Freedom Family Diner just up into PA 

Adding to the list!! Thanks Mappy  

[WEATHER53]

High not running off coast as fast 

[high risk]

39 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Both NAMs continue to hate this system and insist we torch at 850

        This is bothering me a lot, as the NAMs are usually the colder solutions.  I think we're still in the range where the NAM could be having synoptic issues, but if it continues on Monday to keep the accumulations further northwest of the I-95 corridor, I'm going to guess it's right.   The faster onset, shown by the GFS and its hi-res HiResW FV3, would help a ton here, although even where it shows snow, the thermal profile has pretty much zero margin for error.

[Ji]

WB 3K NAM is cooler this run, but still just rain east of the mountains.  Comparing 925 and 850 to 18Z.

What’s the difference between a purple zero and a white zero?

[bncho]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

What’s the difference between a purple zero and a white zero?

below freezing and above freezing, almost like 31.8f vs 32.3f

[SnowenOutThere]

19 minutes ago, high risk said:

        This is bothering me a lot, as the NAMs are usually the colder solutions.  I think we're still in the range where the NAM could be having synoptic issues, but if it continues on Monday to keep the accumulations further northwest of the I-95 corridor, I'm going to guess it's right.   The faster onset, shown by the GFS and its hi-res HiResW FV3, would help a ton here, although even where it shows snow, the thermal profile has pretty much zero margin for error.

I mean this sounding from the Catoctins really says it all. Though, it appears if you're able to keep the column cool it will be dumping with a saturated atmosphere up to 500mb and good lift in the DGZ

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z RDPS (less precip.)

[bncho]

if taken verbatim, RDPS zr in the metros might be an issue with these temperatures