12/2 Cold Rain and High Elevation Snow

[mitchnick]

Pivotal Kuchera 

[MillvilleWx]

Extremely meteorological forecast of where I think the best chance to score 1" of snow from the event could end up. If you are north of the red line, potential. South, probably not. 

EXTREMELY METEOROLOGICAL

[Solution Man]

13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

All snow thump even in DC? Buy. 

[mitchnick]

I'm interested is seeing whether the Euro's snowy start to the run will continue to the end as it often seems to do.

[TSSN+]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'm interested is seeing whether the Euro's snowy start to the run will continue to the end as it often seems to do.

It did not lol 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

It did not lol 

Yep, pigs get slaughtered. 

[NorthArlington101]

[Lucketts]

22 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Extremely meteorological forecast of where I think the best chance to score 1" of snow from the event could end up. If you are north of the red line, potential. South, probably not. 

EXTREMELY METEOROLOGICAL

Yessir! We’re 2 miles N of that line.

[aldie 22]

28 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Extremely meteorological forecast of where I think the best chance to score 1" of snow from the event could end up. If you are north of the red line, potential. South, probably not. 

EXTREMELY METEOROLOGICAL

My new house yes my current residence no. I'll probably drive out for pictures 

[Ji]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yep, pigs get slaughtered. 

it had the idea of the storm....still had a gulf coast coming up the coast. just too far south/east. AI has a nice storm on the 12th lol

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

it had the idea of the storm....still had a gulf coast coming up the coast. just too far south/east. AI has a nice storm on the 12th lol

It's been bullish for Tuesday almost from the start. We'll know in a few days if it should be belived in the future. 

[mitchnick]

25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Entire Eps run droolworthy.

[Eskimo Joe]

Best eps run since Dec 2009, IMO. Prove me wrong, King. Make me believe.

[mitchnick]

Canadian ensembles 

[WhiteoutMD]

Say what?


.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, WhiteoutMD said:

Say what?


.

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Extremely meteorological forecast of where I think the best chance to score 1" of snow from the event could end up. If you are north of the red line, potential. South, probably not. 

EXTREMELY METEOROLOGICAL

This is the way

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This is the way

The way to a cold rain

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Extremely meteorological forecast of where I think the best chance to score 1" of snow from the event could end up. If you are north of the red line, potential. South, probably not. 

EXTREMELY METEOROLOGICAL

I like how you changed the arc of your line just in time to keep it just north of stephens city. Lol

[Solution Man]

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

I like how you changed the arc of your line just in time to keep it just north of stephens city. Lol

That arc doesn’t like Virginia 

[WxUSAF]

35 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

Say what?


.

If we ever get a real snowstorm, AI ensembles going to look like 12k NAM and RGEM had a baby

[WxUSAF]

80% chance for 1” in MBY!? 

 

[WEATHER53]

4 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Time now for snowier solutions cycle to reappear 

Euro sure did 

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

80% chance for 1” in MBY!? 

 

I think euro is the only model showing such a depiction. Either it will cave, or all the other models will cave to the euro. I think we will know with tonight’s 00z runs. 

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I think euro is the only model showing such a depiction. Either it will cave, or all the other models will cave to the euro. I think we will know with tonight’s 00z runs. 

Yeah that’s a weenie run of the EPS. But the op has been fairly consistent with the cooler/weaker solution. I’d be happy with first flakes (that I’m awake to witness), but something measurable would be quite nice.

[Ji]

Yeah that’s a weenie run of the EPS. But the op has been fairly consistent with the cooler/weaker solution. I’d be happy with first flakes (that I’m awake to witness), but something measurable would be quite nice.

It’s hard to trust any model that gives us snow… Even the euro

[Weather Will]

12K NAM is still rain at 18Z.

[aldie 22]

12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I think euro is the only model showing such a depiction. Either it will cave, or all the other models will cave to the euro. I think we will know with tonight’s 00z runs. 

 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah that’s a weenie run of the EPS. But the op has been fairly consistent with the cooler/weaker solution. I’d be happy with first flakes (that I’m awake to witness), but something measurable would be quite nice.

Euro has a less defined/consolidated shortwave than the GFS/Canadian, so its weaker/a bit offshore with the low track as it approaches our latitude. Given the synoptics(HP retreating) that could work for a modest accumulation for central MD. Who knows if it has the right idea.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z JMA looks like EURO.