12/2 Cold Rain and High Elevation Snow

[EastCoast NPZ]

Got to see first flakes yesterday here and snow flurries while getting our Christmas tree at the farm.  It was a great day.

I'll be in NC Tuesday.   I'll be sick if I miss an accumulating event here.  Just sick. I take solace in knowing it likely won't pan out in the Valley.

[87storms]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12K NAM is a miserable, cold  rain for most. At least it brings drought denting rains and an energized storm through the area.

It seems like we need legitimate arctic air intrusions to get snow here now.

[bncho]

GFS appears to be a baby step in the right direction. more south

[bncho]

16 minutes ago, 87storms said:

It seems like we need legitimate arctic air intrusions to get snow here now.

it's early-december. if this storm were in january it would be 30 and snow

[TSSN+]

Everytime I think I am out, they pull me back in! 

[mappy]

43 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

$20 says Partkon mesonet site gets its first inch.

Yes please! 

[clueless]

Whatever model shows rain is the one to bet on. Weenie Handbook, page 5. 

[Terpeast]

I think those who were saying less amp called it, and gfs took a step in that direction. Not saying its gonna snow, its too warm for the lowlands. Still thinking coating to 2” slop far NW of fall line. 

[WEATHER53]

Time now for snowier solutions cycle to reappear 

[Interstate]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

It seems like we need legitimate arctic air intrusions to get snow here now.

Or wait another month. The average high at BWI on Dec 2nd is 47 degrees

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z RDPS still showing ice.

[TSSN+]

17 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z RDPS still showing ice.

When doesn’t it? Think it showed ice in July 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z AI

[WxUSAF]

^that looks pretty reasonable to me

[frd]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z AI

The  ECMWF AI really cut back on the snow totals further South, and seems to have a cold bias. 

I thought I read here it is only useful with 72 hours of an event.  Not really sure about that though. 

What have you noticed? 

[Chris78]

Euro still south and looks decent for areas N+W

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO

All snow thump even in DC? Buy. 

[Ji]

If euro is right teachers in Loudoun will be happy

[TSSN+]

Euro with the excuse me run. Ok then… ya I’ll sign for that. 

[Weather Will]

Well, we are still in the game 3 days out.

[WxUSAF]

All hail the king!

[aldie 22]

Sold on the Euro even if it doesn't stick to the concrete 

[Terpeast]

Euro gives me a 6 hour thump before flip. If it’s correct, maybe my shoe will be on the menu……

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Sold on the Euro even if it doesn't stick to the concrete 

it should stick...been very cold and it stays it starts at 4am/5am...at least enough to make it look like it snowed

[Weather Will]

11 minutes ago, frd said:

The  ECMWF AI really cut back on the snow totals further South, and seems to have a cold bias. 

I thought I read here it is only useful with 72 hours of an event.  Not really sure about that though. 

What have you noticed? 

I think the AI has a cold and amped bias based on my limited observations the last two weeks.  I don't remember it last winter?!

[bncho]

Euro continues its trend of 10 miles SE every model run. Maybe by 0z DC gets 2 inches

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Sold on the Euro even if it doesn't stick to the concrete 

Your head should be in good shape then! 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Euro gives me a 6 hour thump before flip. If it’s correct, maybe my shoe will be on the menu……

Filet-of-sole...and heel!

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Euro gives me a 6 hour thump before flip. If it’s correct, maybe my shoe will be on the menu……

Would like to see picture of said shoe.