Discussion OBS for minor to possibly moderate impact winter storm interior 4A Tue - midnight Tue 12/2/25, may bring first measurable snow-sleet to coastal areas including NYC

[MANDA]

Thinking along the lines of 2-4" for my location and elevation.  Expect main / well traveled roads to have few if any issues as they will be heavily treated.  Side and back roads I would expect issues.  Not a bad start to the season and no matter what the first half of December looks to average solidly below normal.

[SnoSki14]

Probably some white rain at the onset, maybe even a little grass accumulation at best but will all turn to rain with temps near 40F. 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Probably some white rain at the onset, maybe even a little grass accumulation at best but will all turn to rain with temps near 40F. 

Agree

All rain event for the coast

[SnowGoose69]

This probably is a snow event for NYC in January, even without a true high to the north but 12/2 is too early for that setup.  The temps are cold enough but the DPs are not due to the airmass in place

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This probably is a snow event for NYC in January, even without a true high to the north but 12/2 is too early for that setup.  The temps are cold enough but the DPs are not due to the airmass in place

Agreed

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This probably is a snow event for NYC in January, even without a true high to the north but 12/2 is too early for that setup.  The temps are cold enough but the DPs are not due to the airmass in place

I believe a good comparison would be December 5/6 2009. Offshore track resulting in hours of white rain. Areas just north and west had a moderate accumulation.

Actually a perfect benchmark track.

[EastonSN+]

Courtesy of Rays winter storm archive.

Again no accumulation for the coast.

[SnowGoose69]

16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I believe a good comparison would be December 5/6 2009. Offshore track resulting in hours of white rain. Areas just north and west had a moderate accumulation.

Actually a perfect benchmark track.

Forgot about that storm, that was one of the craziest cases I remember where the setup was almost perfect and it rained.  Many of us at that point felt we were headed for another 97-98

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Forgot about that storm, that was one of the craziest cases I remember where the setup was almost perfect and it rained.  Many of us at that point felt we were headed for another 97-98

I lived in Norwalk CT at the time and it snowed the entire time yet did not accumulate at all. 

[vegan_edible]

in albany until after new years. nam just said im getting 17 inches here. 

 

love getting nam'd

[MANDA]

21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Courtesy of Rays winter storm archive.

Again no accumulation for the coast.

Gotta love the old TWC maps!

[SnowGoose69]

17 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

in albany until after new years. nam just said im getting 17 inches here. 

 

love getting nam'd

The RRFS looks reasonable with 2-4 or 3-5 up that way which is good news because it'll be the NAM replacement within a year.  

[NJwx85]

I could see a last minute cold tick that would bring accumulating snows to the coastal interior (West of the PIP and North of Rt 80) but as of now I think it’s mostly confined to the higher elevations of NW NJ and areas North and West of the 287/17/87 junction near Sloatsburg.

[the_other_guy]

Accuweather saying 1-3 for Westchester. Thats trending positive and I wouldnt write this off yet

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Accuweather saying 1-3 for Westchester. Thats trending positive and I wouldnt write this off yet

The 3” would be up near Yorktown Heights with less than an inch for Yonkers. Westchester is a tale of two worlds. The dividing line is often near Hastings on 87.

[snywx]

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I could see a last minute cold tick that would bring accumulating snows to the coastal interior (West of the PIP and North of Rt 80) but as of now I think it’s mostly confined to the higher elevations of NW NJ and areas North and West of the 287/17/87 junction near Sloatsburg.

Sloatsburg will prob be the transition line between accumulating snow & white rain. I’ve seen this story many times before. Rockland especially with these gradient storms is a snow hole. To get into the 5” + amounts you prob want to be in northern Sussex/w Passaic into Orange County. Watches should be going up for Orange/Sussex in the next update 

[the_other_guy]

19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 3” would be up near Yorktown Heights with less than an inch for Yonkers. Westchester is a tale of two worlds. The dividing line is often near Hastings on 87.

Thats me! I find one line at the Cross County and another at 287. There is also a North-South line just west of 95 for the coastal plain

[NorthShoreWx]

31 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The RRFS looks reasonable with 2-4 or 3-5 up that way which is good news because it'll be the NAM replacement within a year.  

12z NAM snow totals look reasonable for the coast.